Development of record-breaking statistics for climatological time-series analysis

The number of record-breaking events expected to occur in a strictly stationary time-series depends only on the number of values in the time-series, regardless of distribution. This holds whether the events are record-breaking highs or lows and whether we count from past to present or present to past. However, these symmetries are broken in distinct ways by trends in the mean and variance. We define indices that capture this information and use them to detect weak trends from multiple time-series. Here, we use these methods to answer the following questions: (1) Is there a variability trend among globally distributed surface temperature time-series? We find a significant decreasing variability over the past century for the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN). This corresponds to about a 10% change in the standard deviation of inter-annual monthly mean temperature distributions. (2) How are record-breaking high and low surface temperatures in the United States affected by time period? We investigate the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and find that the ratio of record-breaking highs to lows in 2006 increases as the time-series extend further into the past. When we consider the ratio as it evolves with respect to a fixed start year, we find it is strongly correlated with the ensemble mean. We also compare the ratios for USHCN and GHCN (minus USHCN stations). We find the ratios grow monotonically in the GHCN data set, but not in the USHCN data set. (3) Do we detect either mean or variance trends in annual precipitation within the United States? We find that the total annual and monthly precipitation in the United States (USHCN) has increased over the past century. Evidence for a trend in variance is inconclusive.

THE EFFECT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY COAL FIRES ON LOCAL AIR QUALITY AND PERSONAL HEALTH

The purpose of this project was to investigate student learning in the areas of earth science and environmental responsibility using the subject of coal fires. Eastern Kentucky, where this study was performed, has several coal fires burning that affect the local air quality and may also affect the health of people living near them. This study was conducted during the regular education of 9th grade Earth Science classroom in Russell Independent Schools, located in Russell, Kentucky. Students conducted internet research, read current articles on the subject of coal fire emissions and effect on local ecology, and demonstrated what they learned through summative assessments. There were several aspects of coalmines and coal fires that students studied. Students were able to take this knowledge and information and use it as a learning tool to gain a better understanding of their own environment. Using the local history and geology of coalmines, along with the long tradition of mine production, was a very beneficial starting point, allowing students to learn about environmental impact, stewardship of their local environment, and methods of preserving and protecting the ecosystem.