Evaluating the usefulness of soil moisture (forecasts) in streamflow prediction for central Texas

The past decade has brought significant advancements in seasonal climate forecasting. However, water resources decision support and management continues to be based almost entirely on historical observations and does not take advantage of climate forecasts. This study builds on previous work that conditioned streamflow ensemble forecasts on observable climate indicators, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) for use in a decision support model for the Highland Lakes multi-reservoir system in central Texas operated by the Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA). In the current study, seasonal soil moisture is explored as a climate indicator and predictor of annual streamflow for the LCRA region. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the correlation of fractional soil moisture with streamflow using the 1950-2000 Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Retrospective Land Surface Data Set over the LCRA region. Correlations were determined by examining different annual and seasonal combinations of VIC modeled fractional soil moisture and observed streamflow. The applicability of the VIC Retrospective Land Surface Data Set as a data source for this study is tested along with establishing and analyzing patterns of climatology for the watershed study area using the selected data source (VIC model) and historical data. Correlation results showed potential for the use of soil moisture as a predictor of streamflow over the LCRA region. This was evident by the good correlations found between seasonal soil moisture and seasonal streamflow during coincident seasons as well as between seasonal and annual soil moisture with annual streamflow during coincident years. With the findings of good correlation between seasonal soil moisture from the VIC Retrospective Land Surface Data Set with observed annual streamflow presented in this study, future research would evaluate the application of NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasts of soil moisture in predicting annual streamflow for use in the decision support model for the LCRA.

USING INDICATORS OF BIOTIC INTEGRITY FOR ASSESSMENT OF STREAM CONDITION

Multiple indices of biotic integrity and biological condition gradient models have been developed and validated to assess ecological integrity in the Laurentian Great Lakes Region. With multiple groups such as Tribal, Federal, and State agencies as well as scientists and local watershed management or river-focused volunteer groups collecting data for bioassessment it is important that we determine the comparability of data and the effectiveness of indices applied to these data for assessment of natural systems. We evaluated the applicability of macroinvertebrate and fish community indices for assessing site integrity. Site quality (i.e., habitat condition) could be classified differently depending on which index was applied. This highlights the need to better understand the metrics driving index variation as well as reference conditions for effective communication and use of indices of biotic integrity in the Upper Midwest. We found the macroinvertebrate benthic community index for the Northern Lakes and Forests Ecoregion and a coldwater fish index of biotic integrity for the Upper Midwest were most appropriate for use in the Big Manistee River watershed based on replicate sampling, ability to track trends over time and overall performance. We evaluated three sites where improper road stream crossings (culverts) were improved by replacing them with modern full-span structures using the most appropriate fish and macroinvertebrate IBIs. We used a before-after-control-impact paired series analytical design and found mixed results, with evidence of improvement in biotic integrity based on macroinvertebrate indices at some of the sites while most sites indicated no response in index score. Culvert replacements are often developed based on the potential, or the perception, that they will restore ecological integrity. As restoration practitioners, researchers and managers, we need to be transparent in our goals and objectives and monitor for those results specifically. The results of this research serve as an important model for the broader field of ecosystem restoration and support the argument that while biotic communities can respond to actions undertaken with the goal of overall restoration, practitioners should be realistic in their expectations and claims of predicted benefit, and then effectively evaluate the true impacts of the restoration activities.