2 resultados para INTELLIGENCE SYSTEMS METHODOLOGY

em Digital Commons - Michigan Tech


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The Environmental Health (EH) program of Peace Corps (PC) Panama and a non-governmental organization (NGO) Waterlines have been assisting rural communities in Panama gain access to improved water sources through the practice of community management (CM) model and participatory development. Unfortunately, there is little information available on how a water system is functioning once the construction is complete and the volunteer leaves the community. This is a concern when the recent literature suggests that most communities are not able to indefinitely maintain a rural water system (RWS) without some form of external assistance (Sara and Katz, 1997; Newman et al, 2002; Lockwood, 2002, 2003, 2004; IRC, 2003; Schweitzer, 2009). Recognizing this concern, the EH program director encouraged the author to complete a postproject assessment of the past EH water projects. In order to carry out the investigation, an easy to use monitoring and evaluation tool was developed based on literature review and the author’s three years of field experience in rural Panama. The study methodology consists of benchmark scoring systems to rate the following ten indicators: watershed, source capture, transmission line, storage tank, distribution system, system reliability, willingness to pay, accounting/transparency, maintenance, and active water committee members. The assessment of 28 communities across the country revealed that the current state of physical infrastructure, as well as the financial, managerial and technical capabilities of water committees varied significantly depending on the community. While some communities are enjoying continued service and their water committee completing all of its responsibilities, others have seen their water systems fall apart and be abandoned. Overall, the higher score were more prevalent for all ten indicators. However, even the communities with the highest scores requested some form of additional assistance. The conclusion from the assessment suggests that the EH program should incorporate an institutional support mechanism (ISM) to its sector policy in order to systematically provide follow-up support to rural communities in Panama. A full-time circuit rider with flexible funding would be able to provide additional technical support, training and encouragement to those communities in need.

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Civil infrastructure provides essential services for the development of both society and economy. It is very important to manage systems efficiently to ensure sound performance. However, there are challenges in information extraction from available data, which also necessitates the establishment of methodologies and frameworks to assist stakeholders in the decision making process. This research proposes methodologies to evaluate systems performance by maximizing the use of available information, in an effort to build and maintain sustainable systems. Under the guidance of problem formulation from a holistic view proposed by Mukherjee and Muga, this research specifically investigates problem solving methods that measure and analyze metrics to support decision making. Failures are inevitable in system management. A methodology is developed to describe arrival pattern of failures in order to assist engineers in failure rescues and budget prioritization especially when funding is limited. It reveals that blockage arrivals are not totally random. Smaller meaningful subsets show good random behavior. Additional overtime failure rate is analyzed by applying existing reliability models and non-parametric approaches. A scheme is further proposed to depict rates over the lifetime of a given facility system. Further analysis of sub-data sets is also performed with the discussion of context reduction. Infrastructure condition is another important indicator of systems performance. The challenges in predicting facility condition are the transition probability estimates and model sensitivity analysis. Methods are proposed to estimate transition probabilities by investigating long term behavior of the model and the relationship between transition rates and probabilities. To integrate heterogeneities, model sensitivity is performed for the application of non-homogeneous Markov chains model. Scenarios are investigated by assuming transition probabilities follow a Weibull regressed function and fall within an interval estimate. For each scenario, multiple cases are simulated using a Monte Carlo simulation. Results show that variations on the outputs are sensitive to the probability regression. While for the interval estimate, outputs have similar variations to the inputs. Life cycle cost analysis and life cycle assessment of a sewer system are performed comparing three different pipe types, which are reinforced concrete pipe (RCP) and non-reinforced concrete pipe (NRCP), and vitrified clay pipe (VCP). Life cycle cost analysis is performed for material extraction, construction and rehabilitation phases. In the rehabilitation phase, Markov chains model is applied in the support of rehabilitation strategy. In the life cycle assessment, the Economic Input-Output Life Cycle Assessment (EIO-LCA) tools are used in estimating environmental emissions for all three phases. Emissions are then compared quantitatively among alternatives to support decision making.