Do increases in oil prices precede U.S. recessions?

This thesis examines the relationship between oil prices and economic activity, and it attempts to address the question: do increases in oil prices (oil shocks) precede U.S. recessions? This paper also applied macroeconomics, either through the direct use of a macroeconomic point of view or using a combination of mathematical and statistical models. Two mathematical and statistical models are used to determine the ability of oil prices to predict recessions in the United States. First, using the binary cyclical (Bry-Boschan method) indicator procedure to test the turning point of oil prices compared with turning points in GDP finds that oil prices almost always turn five month before a recession, suggesting that an oil shock might occur before a recession. Second, the Granger causality test shows that oil prices change do Granger cause U.S. recessions, indicating that oil prices are a useful signal to indicate a U.S. recession. Finally, combining this analysis with the literature, there are several potential explanations that the spike in oil prices result in slower GDP growth and are a contributing factor to U.S. recessions.

SURFACTANT-OIL INTERACTIONS: FOAMING & TOXICITY

Surfactants find large applications in detergents, paints, coatings, food and pharmaceutical industries. Other than that, much focused work has been carried out in oil recovery in petroleum industries and raw material extraction in mining industries. This is because of their unique structure and ability to simultaneously adhere to materials which are both structurally and physically different. The current thesis focuses on interactions of oil with different commercially available and laboratory synthesized surfactants in terms of characteristics such as foaming, ultrasound exposure and toxicity. Foaming is one important characteristic of surfactants that is widely utilized for oil recovery purposes. Researchers utilize surfactants' special ability to provide foam stability to for more efficient oil herding capability. The foam stability and foam volumes are calculated using static foam height tests. Further dispersion or oil in water emulsion formation is observed using ultrasound sources. As described earlier surfactants are not only used as foams for oil displacement, but they are also used for dispersion purposes where they are key components of dispersant formulations. During such operations, especially in sea conditions where adverse effects on aquatic life are a concern, toxicity of chemicals used becomes an important factor. Our toxicity testing experiments involves different surfactants, solvents and crude oil combinations through exposure to special light luminescent bacteria. The decrease in light intensity of the exposed bacteria is related to toxic effects of the samples.

ECONOMIC PROFITABILITY OF THE BAKKEN, NORTH DAKOTA UNCONVENTIONAL OIL PLAYS BASED ON A TYPICAL WELL PERFORMANCE WITH CURRENT MARKET CONDITIONS

Increases in oil prices after the economic recession have been surprising for domestic oil production in the United States since the beginning of 2009. Not only did the conventional oil extraction increase, but unconventional oil production and exploration also improved greatly with the favorable economic conditions. This favorable economy encourages companies to invest in new reservoirs and technological developments. Recently, enhanced drilling techniques including hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have been supporting the domestic economy by way of unconventional shale and tight oil from various U.S. locations. One of the main contributors to this oil boom is the unconventional oil production from the North Dakota Bakken field. Horizontal drilling has increased oil production in the Bakken field, but the economic issues of unconventional oil extraction are still debatable due to volatile oil prices, high decline rates of production, a limited production period, high production costs, and lack of transportation. The economic profitability and viability of the unconventional oil play in the North Dakota Bakken was tested with an economic analysis of average Bakken unconventional well features. Scenario analysis demonstrated that a typical North Dakota Bakken unconventional oil well is profitable and viable as shown by three financial metrics; net present value, internal rate of return, and break-even prices.