3 resultados para Holt-Winters

em Digital Commons - Michigan Tech


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Tsuga canadensis (eastern hemlock) is a highly shade-tolerant, late-successional, and long-lived conifer species found throughout eastern North America. It is most often found in pure or nearly pure stands, because highly acidic and nutrient poor forest floor conditions are thought to favor T. canadensis regeneration while simultaneously limiting the establishment of some hardwood species with greater nutrient requirements. Once a common species, T. canadensis is currently experiencing widescale declines across its range. The hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae) is decimating the population across its eastern distribution. Across the Upper Great Lakes region, where the adelgid is currently being held at bay by cold winter temperatures, T. canadensis has been experiencing failures in regeneration attributed, in part, to herbivory by white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). Deer utilize T. canadensis stands as winter habitat in areas of high snow depth. Tsuga canadensis, once a major component of these forests, currently exists at just a fraction of its pre-settlement abundance due to historic logging and contemporary forest management practices, and what remains is found in small remnant patches surrounded by second- and third-growth deciduous forests. The deer population across the region, however, is likely double that of pre-European settlement times. In this dissertation I explore the relationship between white-tailed deer use of T. canadensis as winter habitat and the effect this use is having on regeneration and forest succession. For this research I quantified stand composition and structure and abiotic variables of elevation and snow depth in 39 randomly selected T. canadensis stands from across the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan. I also quantified composition and the configuration of the landscapes surrounding these stands. I measured relative deer use of T. canadensis stands as pellet group piles deposited in each stand during each of three consecutive winters, 2005-06, 2006-07, and 2007-08. The results of this research suggest that deer use of T. canadensis stands as winter habitat is influenced primarily by snow depth, elevation, and the composition and configuration of the greater landscapes surrounding these stands. Specifically, stands with more heterogeneous landscapes surrounding them (i.e., a patchy mosaic of conifer, deciduous, and open cover) had higher relative deer use than stands surrounded by homogenous deciduous forest cover. Additionally, the intensity of use and the number of stands used was greater in years with higher average snow depth. Tsuga canadensis regeneration in these stands was negatively associated with deer use and Acer saccharum (sugar maple) basal area. Of the 39 stands, 17 and 22 stands had no T. canadensis regeneration in small and large sapling categories, respectively. Acer saccharum was the most common understory tree species, and the importance of A. saccharum in the understory (stems < 10 cm dbh) of the stands was positively associated with overstory A. saccharum dominance. Tsuga canadensis establishment was associated with high-decay coarse woody debris and moss, and deciduous leaf litter inputs in these stands may be limiting access to these important microsites. Furthermore, A. saccharum is more tolerant to the effects of deer herbivory than T. canadensis, giving A. saccharum a competitive advantage in stands being utilized as winter habitat by deer. My research suggests that limited microsite availability, in conjunction with deer herbivory, may be leading to an erosion in T. canadensis patch stability and an altered successional trajectory toward one of A. saccharum dominance, an alternately stable climax species.

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Landscape structure and heterogeneity play a potentially important, but little understood role in predator-prey interactions and behaviourally-mediated habitat selection. For example, habitat complexity may either reduce or enhance the efficiency of a predator's efforts to search, track, capture, kill and consume prey. For prey, structural heterogeneity may affect predator detection, avoidance and defense, escape tactics, and the ability to exploit refuges. This study, investigates whether and how vegetation and topographic structure influence the spatial patterns and distribution of moose (Alces alces) mortality due to predation and malnutrition at the local and landscape levels on Isle Royale National Park. 230 locations where wolves (Canis lupus) killed moose during the winters between 2002 and 2010, and 182 moose starvation death sites for the period 1996-2010, were selected from the extensive Isle Royale Wolf-Moose Project carcass database. A variety of LiDAR-derived metrics were generated and used in an algorithm model (Random Forest) to identify, characterize, and classify three-dimensional variables significant to each of the mortality classes. Furthermore, spatial models to predict and assess the likelihood at the landscape scale of moose mortality were developed. This research found that the patterns of moose mortality by predation and malnutrition across the landscape are non-random, have a high degree of spatial variability, and that both mechanisms operate in contexts of comparable physiographic and vegetation structure. Wolf winter hunting locations on Isle Royale are more likely to be a result of its prey habitat selection, although they seem to prioritize the overall areas with higher moose density in the winter. Furthermore, the findings suggest that the distribution of moose mortality by predation is habitat-specific to moose, and not to wolves. In addition, moose sex, age, and health condition also affect mortality site selection, as revealed by subtle differences between sites in vegetation heights, vegetation density, and topography. Vegetation density in particular appears to differentiate mortality locations for distinct classes of moose. The results also emphasize the significance of fine-scale landscape and habitat features when addressing predator-prey interactions. These finer scale findings would be easily missed if analyses were limited to the broader landscape scale alone.

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This dissertation presents a detailed study in exploring quantum correlations of lights in macroscopic environments. We have explored quantum correlations of single photons, weak coherent states, and polarization-correlated/polarization-entangled photons in macroscopic environments. These included macroscopic mirrors, macroscopic photon number, spatially separated observers, noisy photons source and propagation medium with loss or disturbances. We proposed a measurement scheme for observing quantum correlations and entanglement in the spatial properties of two macroscopic mirrors using single photons spatial compass state. We explored the phase space distribution features of spatial compass states, such as chessboard pattern by using the Wigner function. The displacement and tilt correlations of the two mirrors were manifested through the propensities of the compass states. This technique can be used to extract Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen correlations (EPR) of the two mirrors. We then formulated the discrete-like property of the propensity Pb(m,n), which can be used to explore environmental perturbed quantum jumps of the EPR correlations in phase space. With single photons spatial compass state, the variances in position and momentum are much smaller than standard quantum limit when using a Gaussian TEM00 beam. We observed intrinsic quantum correlations of weak coherent states between two parties through balanced homodyne detection. Our scheme can be used as a supplement to decoy-state BB84 protocol and differential phase-shift QKD protocol. We prepared four types of bipartite correlations ±cos2(θ12) that shared between two parties. We also demonstrated bits correlations between two parties separated by 10 km optical fiber. The bits information will be protected by the large quantum phase fluctuation of weak coherent states, adding another physical layer of security to these protocols for quantum key distribution. Using 10 m of highly nonlinear fiber (HNLF) at 77 K, we observed coincidence to accidental-coincidence ratio of 130±5 for correlated photon-pair and Two-Photon Interference visibility >98% entangled photon-pair. We also verified the non-local behavior of polarization-entangled photon pair by violating Clauser-Horne-Shimony-Holt Bell’s inequality by more than 12 standard deviations. With the HNLF at 300 K (77 K), photon-pair production rate about factor 3(2) higher than a 300 m dispersion-shifted fiber is observed. Then, we studied quantum correlation and interference of photon-pairs; with one photon of the photon-air experiencing multiple scattering in a random medium. We observed that depolarization noise photon in multiple scattering degrading the purity of photon-pair, and the existence of Raman noise photon in a photon-pair source will contribute to the depolarization affect. We found that quantum correlation of polarization-entangled photon-pair is better preserved than polarization-correlated photon-pair as one photon of the photon-pair scattered through a random medium. Our findings showed that high purity polarization-entangled photon-pair is better candidate for long distance quantum key distribution.