FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT UNDER HISTORICAL AND PREDICTED LAND USE CHANGE USING CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC MODELING

Current procedures for flood risk estimation assume flood distributions are stationary over time, meaning annual maximum flood (AMF) series are not affected by climatic variation, land use/land cover (LULC) change, or management practices. Thus, changes in LULC and climate are generally not accounted for in policy and design related to flood risk/control, and historical flood events are deemed representative of future flood risk. These assumptions need to be re-evaluated, however, as climate change and anthropogenic activities have been observed to have large impacts on flood risk in many areas. In particular, understanding the effects of LULC change is essential to the study and understanding of global environmental change and the consequent hydrologic responses. The research presented herein provides possible causation for observed nonstationarity in AMF series with respect to changes in LULC, as well as a means to assess the degree to which future LULC change will impact flood risk. Four watersheds in the Midwest, Northeastern, and Central United States were studied to determine flood risk associated with historical and future projected LULC change. Historical single framed aerial images dating back to the mid-1950s were used along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing models (SPRING and ERDAS) to create historical land use maps. The Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land Use Change (FORE-SCE) model was applied to generate future LULC maps annually from 2006 to 2100 for the conterminous U.S. based on the four IPCC-SRES future emission scenario conditions. These land use maps were input into previously calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models for two case study watersheds. In order to isolate effects of LULC change, the only variable parameter was the Runoff Curve Number associated with the land use layer. All simulations were run with daily climate data from 1978-1999, consistent with the 'base' model which employed the 1992 NLCD to represent 'current' conditions. Output daily maximum flows were converted to instantaneous AMF series and were subsequently modeled using a Log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution to evaluate flood risk. Analysis of the progression of LULC change over the historic period and associated SWAT outputs revealed that AMF magnitudes tend to increase over time in response to increasing degrees of urbanization. This is consistent with positive trends in the AMF series identified in previous studies, although there are difficulties identifying correlations between LULC change and identified change points due to large time gaps in the generated historical LULC maps, mainly caused by unavailability of sufficient quality historic aerial imagery. Similarly, increases in the mean and median AMF magnitude were observed in response to future LULC change projections, with the tails of the distributions remaining reasonably constant. FORE-SCE scenario A2 was found to have the most dramatic impact on AMF series, consistent with more extreme projections of population growth, demands for growing energy sources, agricultural land, and urban expansion, while AMF outputs based on scenario B2 showed little changes for the future as the focus is on environmental conservation and regional solutions to environmental issues.

Characterization of legacy organic carbon in a culturally eutrophic lake : the role of the historic carbon deposition in the time course and extent of lake recovery

The time course of lake recovery after a reduction in external loading of nutrients is often controlled by conditions in the sediment. Remediation of eutrophication is hindered by the presence of legacy organic carbon deposits, that exert a demand on the terminal electron acceptors of the lake and contribute to problems such as internal nutrient recycling, absence of sediment macrofauna, and flux of toxic metal species into the water column. Being able to quantify the timing of a lake’s response requires determination of the magnitude and lability, i.e., the susceptibility to biodegradation, of the organic carbon within the legacy deposit. This characterization is problematic for organic carbon in sediments because of the presence of different fractions of carbon, which vary from highly labile to refractory. The lability of carbon under varied conditions was tested with a bioassay approach. It was found that the majority of the organic material found in the sediments is conditionally-labile, where mineralization potential is dependent on prevailing conditions. High labilities were noted under oxygenated conditions and a favorable temperature of 30 °C. Lability decreased when oxygen was removed, and was further reduced when the temperature was dropped to the hypolimnetic average of 8° C . These results indicate that reversible preservation mechanisms exist in the sediment, and are able to protect otherwise labile material from being mineralized under in situ conditions. The concept of an active sediment layer, a region in the sediments in which diagenetic reactions occur (with nothing occurring below it), was examined through three lines of evidence. Initially, porewater profiles of oxygen, nitrate, sulfate/total sulfide, ETSA (Electron Transport System Activity- the activity of oxygen, nitrate, iron/manganese, and sulfate), and methane were considered. It was found through examination of the porewater profiles that the edge of diagenesis occurred around 15-20 cm. Secondly, historical and contemporary TOC profiles were compared to find the point at which the profiles were coincident, indicating the depth at which no change has occurred over the (13 year) interval between core collections. This analysis suggested that no diagenesis has occurred in Onondaga Lake sediment below a depth of 15 cm. Finally, the time to 99% mineralization, the t99, was viewed by using a literature estimate of the kinetic rate constant for diagenesis. A t99 of 34 years, or approximately 30 cm of sediment depth, resulted for the slowly decaying carbon fraction. Based on these three lines of evidence , an active sediment layer of 15-20 cm is proposed for Onondaga Lake, corresponding to a time since deposition of 15-20 years. While a large legacy deposit of conditionally-labile organic material remains in the sediments of Onondaga Lake, it becomes clear that preservation, mechanisms that act to shield labile organic carbon from being degraded, protects this material from being mineralized and exerting a demand on the terminal electron acceptors of the lake. This has major implications for management of the lake, as it defines the time course of lake recovery following a reduction in nutrient loading.