FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT UNDER HISTORICAL AND PREDICTED LAND USE CHANGE USING CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC MODELING

Current procedures for flood risk estimation assume flood distributions are stationary over time, meaning annual maximum flood (AMF) series are not affected by climatic variation, land use/land cover (LULC) change, or management practices. Thus, changes in LULC and climate are generally not accounted for in policy and design related to flood risk/control, and historical flood events are deemed representative of future flood risk. These assumptions need to be re-evaluated, however, as climate change and anthropogenic activities have been observed to have large impacts on flood risk in many areas. In particular, understanding the effects of LULC change is essential to the study and understanding of global environmental change and the consequent hydrologic responses. The research presented herein provides possible causation for observed nonstationarity in AMF series with respect to changes in LULC, as well as a means to assess the degree to which future LULC change will impact flood risk. Four watersheds in the Midwest, Northeastern, and Central United States were studied to determine flood risk associated with historical and future projected LULC change. Historical single framed aerial images dating back to the mid-1950s were used along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing models (SPRING and ERDAS) to create historical land use maps. The Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land Use Change (FORE-SCE) model was applied to generate future LULC maps annually from 2006 to 2100 for the conterminous U.S. based on the four IPCC-SRES future emission scenario conditions. These land use maps were input into previously calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models for two case study watersheds. In order to isolate effects of LULC change, the only variable parameter was the Runoff Curve Number associated with the land use layer. All simulations were run with daily climate data from 1978-1999, consistent with the 'base' model which employed the 1992 NLCD to represent 'current' conditions. Output daily maximum flows were converted to instantaneous AMF series and were subsequently modeled using a Log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution to evaluate flood risk. Analysis of the progression of LULC change over the historic period and associated SWAT outputs revealed that AMF magnitudes tend to increase over time in response to increasing degrees of urbanization. This is consistent with positive trends in the AMF series identified in previous studies, although there are difficulties identifying correlations between LULC change and identified change points due to large time gaps in the generated historical LULC maps, mainly caused by unavailability of sufficient quality historic aerial imagery. Similarly, increases in the mean and median AMF magnitude were observed in response to future LULC change projections, with the tails of the distributions remaining reasonably constant. FORE-SCE scenario A2 was found to have the most dramatic impact on AMF series, consistent with more extreme projections of population growth, demands for growing energy sources, agricultural land, and urban expansion, while AMF outputs based on scenario B2 showed little changes for the future as the focus is on environmental conservation and regional solutions to environmental issues.

A NATURALISTIC COMPUTATIONAL MODEL OF HUMAN BEHAVIOR IN NAVIGATION AND SEARCH TASKS

Planning, navigation, and search are fundamental human cognitive abilities central to spatial problem solving in search and rescue, law enforcement, and military operations. Despite a wealth of literature concerning naturalistic spatial problem solving in animals, literature on naturalistic spatial problem solving in humans is comparatively lacking and generally conducted by separate camps among which there is little crosstalk. Addressing this deficiency will allow us to predict spatial decision making in operational environments, and understand the factors leading to those decisions. The present dissertation is comprised of two related efforts, (1) a set of empirical research studies intended to identify characteristics of planning, execution, and memory in naturalistic spatial problem solving tasks, and (2) a computational modeling effort to develop a model of naturalistic spatial problem solving. The results of the behavioral studies indicate that problem space hierarchical representations are linear in shape, and that human solutions are produced according to multiple optimization criteria. The Mixed Criteria Model presented in this dissertation accounts for global and local human performance in a traditional and naturalistic Traveling Salesman Problem. The results of the empirical and modeling efforts hold implications for basic and applied science in domains such as problem solving, operations research, human-computer interaction, and artificial intelligence.

Reducing main memory access latency through SDRAM address mapping techniques and access reordering mechanisms

As the performance gap between microprocessors and memory continues to increase, main memory accesses result in long latencies which become a factor limiting system performance. Previous studies show that main memory access streams contain significant localities and SDRAM devices provide parallelism through multiple banks and channels. These locality and parallelism have not been exploited thoroughly by conventional memory controllers. In this thesis, SDRAM address mapping techniques and memory access reordering mechanisms are studied and applied to memory controller design with the goal of reducing observed main memory access latency. The proposed bit-reversal address mapping attempts to distribute main memory accesses evenly in the SDRAM address space to enable bank parallelism. As memory accesses to unique banks are interleaved, the access latencies are partially hidden and therefore reduced. With the consideration of cache conflict misses, bit-reversal address mapping is able to direct potential row conflicts to different banks, further improving the performance. The proposed burst scheduling is a novel access reordering mechanism, which creates bursts by clustering accesses directed to the same rows of the same banks. Subjected to a threshold, reads are allowed to preempt writes and qualified writes are piggybacked at the end of the bursts. A sophisticated access scheduler selects accesses based on priorities and interleaves accesses to maximize the SDRAM data bus utilization. Consequentially burst scheduling reduces row conflict rate, increasing and exploiting the available row locality. Using a revised SimpleScalar and M5 simulator, both techniques are evaluated and compared with existing academic and industrial solutions. With SPEC CPU2000 benchmarks, bit-reversal reduces the execution time by 14% on average over traditional page interleaving address mapping. Burst scheduling also achieves a 15% reduction in execution time over conventional bank in order scheduling. Working constructively together, bit-reversal and burst scheduling successfully achieve a 19% speedup across simulated benchmarks.

Modeling contaminant behavior in Lake Superior : a comparison of PCBs, PBDEs, and mercury

A mass‐balance model for Lake Superior was applied to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), and mercury to determine the major routes of entry and the major mechanisms of loss from this ecosystem as well as the time required for each contaminant class to approach steady state. A two‐box model (water column, surface sediments) incorporating seasonally adjusted environmental parameters was used. Both numerical (forward Euler) and analytical solutions were employed and compared. For validation, the model was compared with current and historical concentrations and fluxes in the lake and sediments. Results for PCBs were similar to prior work showing that air‐water exchange is the most rapid input and loss process. The model indicates that mercury behaves similarly to a moderately‐chlorinated PCB, with air‐water exchange being a relatively rapid input and loss process. Modeled accumulation fluxes of PBDEs in sediments agreed with measured values reported in the literature. Wet deposition rates were about three times greater than dry particulate deposition rates for PBDEs. Gas deposition was an important process for tri‐ and tetra‐BDEs (BDEs 28 and 47), but not for higher‐brominated BDEs. Sediment burial was the dominant loss mechanism for most of the PBDE congeners while volatilization was still significant for tri‐ and tetra‐BDEs. Because volatilization is a relatively rapid loss process for both mercury and the most abundant PCBs (tri‐ through penta‐), the model predicts that similar times (from 2 ‐ 10 yr) are required for the compounds to approach steady state in the lake. The model predicts that if inputs of Hg(II) to the lake decrease in the future then concentrations of mercury in the lake will decrease at a rate similar to the historical decline in PCB concentrations following the ban on production and most uses in the U.S. In contrast, PBDEs are likely to respond more slowly if atmospheric concentrations are reduced in the future because loss by volatilization is a much slower process for PBDEs, leading to lesser overall loss rates for PBDEs in comparison to PCBs and mercury. Uncertainties in the chemical degradation rates and partitioning constants of PBDEs are the largest source of uncertainty in the modeled times to steady‐state for this class of chemicals. The modeled organic PBT loading rates are sensitive to uncertainties in scavenging efficiencies by rain and snow, dry deposition velocity, watershed runoff concentrations, and uncertainties in air‐water exchange such as the effect of atmospheric stability.

DESIGN OF EFFICIENT IN-NETWORK DATA PROCESSING AND DISSEMINATION FOR VANETS

By providing vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure wireless communications, vehicular ad hoc networks (VANETs), also known as the “networks on wheels”, can greatly enhance traffic safety, traffic efficiency and driving experience for intelligent transportation system (ITS). However, the unique features of VANETs, such as high mobility and uneven distribution of vehicular nodes, impose critical challenges of high efficiency and reliability for the implementation of VANETs. This dissertation is motivated by the great application potentials of VANETs in the design of efficient in-network data processing and dissemination. Considering the significance of message aggregation, data dissemination and data collection, this dissertation research targets at enhancing the traffic safety and traffic efficiency, as well as developing novel commercial applications, based on VANETs, following four aspects: 1) accurate and efficient message aggregation to detect on-road safety relevant events, 2) reliable data dissemination to reliably notify remote vehicles, 3) efficient and reliable spatial data collection from vehicular sensors, and 4) novel promising applications to exploit the commercial potentials of VANETs. Specifically, to enable cooperative detection of safety relevant events on the roads, the structure-less message aggregation (SLMA) scheme is proposed to improve communication efficiency and message accuracy. The scheme of relative position based message dissemination (RPB-MD) is proposed to reliably and efficiently disseminate messages to all intended vehicles in the zone-of-relevance in varying traffic density. Due to numerous vehicular sensor data available based on VANETs, the scheme of compressive sampling based data collection (CS-DC) is proposed to efficiently collect the spatial relevance data in a large scale, especially in the dense traffic. In addition, with novel and efficient solutions proposed for the application specific issues of data dissemination and data collection, several appealing value-added applications for VANETs are developed to exploit the commercial potentials of VANETs, namely general purpose automatic survey (GPAS), VANET-based ambient ad dissemination (VAAD) and VANET based vehicle performance monitoring and analysis (VehicleView). Thus, by improving the efficiency and reliability in in-network data processing and dissemination, including message aggregation, data dissemination and data collection, together with the development of novel promising applications, this dissertation will help push VANETs further to the stage of massive deployment.

SECURITY, PRIVACY AND APPLICATIONS IN VEHICULAR AD HOC NETWORKS

With wireless vehicular communications, Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs) enable numerous applications to enhance traffic safety, traffic efficiency, and driving experience. However, VANETs also impose severe security and privacy challenges which need to be thoroughly investigated. In this dissertation, we enhance the security, privacy, and applications of VANETs, by 1) designing application-driven security and privacy solutions for VANETs, and 2) designing appealing VANET applications with proper security and privacy assurance. First, the security and privacy challenges of VANETs with most application significance are identified and thoroughly investigated. With both theoretical novelty and realistic considerations, these security and privacy schemes are especially appealing to VANETs. Specifically, multi-hop communications in VANETs suffer from packet dropping, packet tampering, and communication failures which have not been satisfyingly tackled in literature. Thus, a lightweight reliable and faithful data packet relaying framework (LEAPER) is proposed to ensure reliable and trustworthy multi-hop communications by enhancing the cooperation of neighboring nodes. Message verification, including both content and signature verification, generally is computation-extensive and incurs severe scalability issues to each node. The resource-aware message verification (RAMV) scheme is proposed to ensure resource-aware, secure, and application-friendly message verification in VANETs. On the other hand, to make VANETs acceptable to the privacy-sensitive users, the identity and location privacy of each node should be properly protected. To this end, a joint privacy and reputation assurance (JPRA) scheme is proposed to synergistically support privacy protection and reputation management by reconciling their inherent conflicting requirements. Besides, the privacy implications of short-time certificates are thoroughly investigated in a short-time certificates-based privacy protection (STCP2) scheme, to make privacy protection in VANETs feasible with short-time certificates. Secondly, three novel solutions, namely VANET-based ambient ad dissemination (VAAD), general-purpose automatic survey (GPAS), and VehicleView, are proposed to support the appealing value-added applications based on VANETs. These solutions all follow practical application models, and an incentive-centered architecture is proposed for each solution to balance the conflicting requirements of the involved entities. Besides, the critical security and privacy challenges of these applications are investigated and addressed with novel solutions. Thus, with proper security and privacy assurance, these solutions show great application significance and economic potentials to VANETs. Thus, by enhancing the security, privacy, and applications of VANETs, this dissertation fills the gap between the existing theoretic research and the realistic implementation of VANETs, facilitating the realistic deployment of VANETs.