Development of measurement and modeling techniques to quantify atmospheric deposition of persistent, bioaccumulative and toxic chemicals in the Great Lakes

Measurement and modeling techniques were developed to improve over-water gaseous air-water exchange measurements for persistent bioaccumulative and toxic chemicals (PBTs). Analytical methods were applied to atmospheric measurements of hexachlorobenzene (HCB), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs). Additionally, the sampling and analytical methods are well suited to study semivolatile organic compounds (SOCs) in air with applications related to secondary organic aerosol formation, urban, and indoor air quality. A novel gas-phase cleanup method is described for use with thermal desorption methods for analysis of atmospheric SOCs using multicapillary denuders. The cleanup selectively removed hydrogen-bonding chemicals from samples, including much of the background matrix of oxidized organic compounds in ambient air, and thereby improved precision and method detection limits for nonpolar analytes. A model is presented that predicts gas collection efficiency and particle collection artifact for SOCs in multicapillary denuders using polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) sorbent. An approach is presented to estimate the equilibrium PDMS-gas partition coefficient (Kpdms) from an Abraham solvation parameter model for any SOC. A high flow rate (300 L min-1) multicapillary denuder was designed for measurement of trace atmospheric SOCs. Overall method precision and detection limits were determined using field duplicates and compared to the conventional high-volume sampler method. The high-flow denuder is an alternative to high-volume or passive samplers when separation of gas and particle-associated SOCs upstream of a filter and short sample collection time are advantageous. A Lagrangian internal boundary layer transport exchange (IBLTE) Model is described. The model predicts the near-surface variation in several quantities with fetch in coastal, offshore flow: 1) modification in potential temperature and gas mixing ratio, 2) surface fluxes of sensible heat, water vapor, and trace gases using the NOAA COARE Bulk Algorithm and Gas Transfer Model, 3) vertical gradients in potential temperature and mixing ratio. The model was applied to interpret micrometeorological measurements of air-water exchange flux of HCB and several PCB congeners in Lake Superior. The IBLTE Model can be applied to any scalar, including water vapor, carbon dioxide, dimethyl sulfide, and other scalar quantities of interest with respect to hydrology, climate, and ecosystem science.

Molecular modeling of EPON 862-DETDA polymer

EPON 862 is an epoxy resin which is cured with the hardening agent DETDA to form a crosslinked epoxy polymer and is used as a component in modern aircraft structures. These crosslinked polymers are often exposed to prolonged periods of temperatures below glass transition range which cause physical aging to occur. Because physical aging can compromise the performance of epoxies and their composites and because experimental techniques cannot provide all of the necessary physical insight that is needed to fully understand physical aging, efficient computational approaches to predict the effects of physical aging on thermo-mechanical properties are needed. In this study, Molecular Dynamics and Molecular Minimization simulations are being used to establish well-equilibrated, validated molecular models of the EPON 862-DETDA epoxy system with a range of crosslink densities using a united-atom force field. These simulations are subsequently used to predict the glass transition temperature, thermal expansion coefficients, and elastic properties of each of the crosslinked systems for validation of the modeling techniques. The results indicate that glass transition temperature and elastic properties increase with increasing levels of crosslink density and the thermal expansion coefficient decreases with crosslink density, both above and below the glass transition temperature. The results also indicate that there may be an upper limit to crosslink density that can be realistically achieved in epoxy systems. After evaluation of the thermo-mechanical properties, a method is developed to efficiently establish molecular models of epoxy resins that represent the corresponding real molecular structure at specific aging times. Although this approach does not model the physical aging process, it is useful in establishing a molecular model that resembles the physically-aged state for further use in predicting thermo-mechanical properties as a function of aging time. An equation has been predicted based on the results which directly correlate aging time to aged volume of the molecular model. This equation can be helpful for modelers who want to study properties of epoxy resins at different levels of aging but have little information about volume shrinkage occurring during physical aging.

Multiscale constitutive modeling of polymer materials

Materials are inherently multi-scale in nature consisting of distinct characteristics at various length scales from atoms to bulk material. There are no widely accepted predictive multi-scale modeling techniques that span from atomic level to bulk relating the effects of the structure at the nanometer (10-9 meter) on macro-scale properties. Traditional engineering deals with treating matter as continuous with no internal structure. In contrast to engineers, physicists have dealt with matter in its discrete structure at small length scales to understand fundamental behavior of materials. Multiscale modeling is of great scientific and technical importance as it can aid in designing novel materials that will enable us to tailor properties specific to an application like multi-functional materials. Polymer nanocomposite materials have the potential to provide significant increases in mechanical properties relative to current polymers used for structural applications. The nanoscale reinforcements have the potential to increase the effective interface between the reinforcement and the matrix by orders of magnitude for a given reinforcement volume fraction as relative to traditional micro- or macro-scale reinforcements. To facilitate the development of polymer nanocomposite materials, constitutive relationships must be established that predict the bulk mechanical properties of the materials as a function of the molecular structure. A computational hierarchical multiscale modeling technique is developed to study the bulk-level constitutive behavior of polymeric materials as a function of its molecular chemistry. Various parameters and modeling techniques from computational chemistry to continuum mechanics are utilized for the current modeling method. The cause and effect relationship of the parameters are studied to establish an efficient modeling framework. The proposed methodology is applied to three different polymers and validated using experimental data available in literature.

PARAMETRIC STUDY OF REAXFF SIMULATION PARAMETERS FOR MOLECULAR DYNAMICS MODELING OF REACTIVE CARBON GASES

Abstract The development of innovative carbon-based materials can be greatly facilitated by molecular modeling techniques. Although the Reax Force Field (ReaxFF) can be used to simulate the chemical behavior of carbon-based systems, the simulation settings required for accurate predictions have not been fully explored. Using the ReaxFF, molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are used to simulate the chemical behavior of pure carbon and hydrocarbon reactive gases that are involved in the formation of carbon structures such as graphite, buckyballs, amorphous carbon, and carbon nanotubes. It is determined that the maximum simulation time step that can be used in MD simulations with the ReaxFF is dependent on the simulated temperature and selected parameter set, as are the predicted reaction rates. It is also determined that different carbon-based reactive gases react at different rates, and that the predicted equilibrium structures are generally the same for the different ReaxFF parameter sets, except in the case of the predicted formation of large graphitic structures with the Chenoweth parameter set under specific conditions.

Vibro-acoustical analysis and design of a multiple-layer constrained viscoelastic damping structure

The goal of this research is to provide a framework for vibro-acoustical analysis and design of a multiple-layer constrained damping structure. The existing research on damping and viscoelastic damping mechanism is limited to the following four mainstream approaches: modeling techniques of damping treatments/materials; control through the electrical-mechanical effect using the piezoelectric layer; optimization by adjusting the parameters of the structure to meet the design requirements; and identification of the damping material’s properties through the response of the structure. This research proposes a systematic design methodology for the multiple-layer constrained damping beam giving consideration to vibro-acoustics. A modeling technique to study the vibro-acoustics of multiple-layered viscoelastic laminated beams using the Biot damping model is presented using a hybrid numerical model. The boundary element method (BEM) is used to model the acoustical cavity whereas the Finite Element Method (FEM) is the basis for vibration analysis of the multiple-layered beam structure. Through the proposed procedure, the analysis can easily be extended to other complex geometry with arbitrary boundary conditions. The nonlinear behavior of viscoelastic damping materials is represented by the Biot damping model taking into account the effects of frequency, temperature and different damping materials for individual layers. A curve-fitting procedure used to obtain the Biot constants for different damping materials for each temperature is explained. The results from structural vibration analysis for selected beams agree with published closed-form results and results for the radiated noise for a sample beam structure obtained using a commercial BEM software is compared with the acoustical results of the same beam with using the Biot damping model. The extension of the Biot damping model is demonstrated to study MDOF (Multiple Degrees of Freedom) dynamics equations of a discrete system in order to introduce different types of viscoelastic damping materials. The mechanical properties of viscoelastic damping materials such as shear modulus and loss factor change with respect to different ambient temperatures and frequencies. The application of multiple-layer treatment increases the damping characteristic of the structure significantly and thus helps to attenuate the vibration and noise for a broad range of frequency and temperature. The main contributions of this dissertation include the following three major tasks: 1) Study of the viscoelastic damping mechanism and the dynamics equation of a multilayer damped system incorporating the Biot damping model. 2) Building the Finite Element Method (FEM) model of the multiple-layer constrained viscoelastic damping beam and conducting the vibration analysis. 3) Extending the vibration problem to the Boundary Element Method (BEM) based acoustical problem and comparing the results with commercial simulation software.

Perceptions of water conditions and management in the Sonora River Basin, Sonora, Mexico

The effects of climate change are expected to be very severe in arid regions. The Sonora River Basin, in the northwestern state of Sonora, Mexico, is likely to be severely affected. Some of the anticipated effects include precipitation variability, intense storm events, higher overall temperatures, and less available water. In addition, population in Sonora, specifically the capital city of Hermosillo, is increasing at a 1.5% rate and current populations are near 700,000. With the reduction in water availability and an increase in population, Sonora, Mexico is expected to experience severe water resource issues in the near future. In anticipation of these changes, research is being conducted in an attempt to improve water management in the Sonora River Basin, located in the northwestern part of Sonora. This research involves participatory modeling techniques designed to increase water manager awareness of hydrological models and their use as integrative tools for water resource management. This study was conducted as preliminary research for the participatory modeling grant in order to gather useful information on the population being studied. This thesis presents research from thirty-four in-depth interviews with water managers, citizens, and agricultural producers in Sonora, Mexico. Data was collected on perceptions of water quantity and quality in the basin, thoughts on current water management practices, perceptions of climate change and its management, experience with, knowledge of, and trust in hydrological models as water management tools. Results showed that the majority of interviewees thought there was not enough water to satisfy their daily needs. Most respondents also agreed that the water available was of good quality, but that current management of water resources was ineffective. Nearly all interviewees were aware of climate change and thought it to be anthropogenic. May reported experiencing higher temperatures, precipitation changes, and higher water scarcity and attributed those fluctuations to climate change. 65% of interviewees were at least somewhat familiar with hydrological models, though only 28% had ever used them or their output. Even with model usage results being low, 100% of respondents believed hydrological models to be very useful water management tools. Understanding how water, climate change, and hydrological models are perceived by this population of people is essential to improving their water management practices in the face of climate change.

Control design and genetic algorithm optimization for electrostatic MEMS

This dissertation discusses structural-electrostatic modeling techniques, genetic algorithm based optimization and control design for electrostatic micro devices. First, an alternative modeling technique, the interpolated force model, for electrostatic micro devices is discussed. The method provides improved computational efficiency relative to a benchmark model, as well as improved accuracy for irregular electrode configurations relative to a common approximate model, the parallel plate approximation model. For the configuration most similar to two parallel plates, expected to be the best case scenario for the approximate model, both the parallel plate approximation model and the interpolated force model maintained less than 2.2% error in static deflection compared to the benchmark model. For the configuration expected to be the worst case scenario for the parallel plate approximation model, the interpolated force model maintained less than 2.9% error in static deflection while the parallel plate approximation model is incapable of handling the configuration. Second, genetic algorithm based optimization is shown to improve the design of an electrostatic micro sensor. The design space is enlarged from published design spaces to include the configuration of both sensing and actuation electrodes, material distribution, actuation voltage and other geometric dimensions. For a small population, the design was improved by approximately a factor of 6 over 15 generations to a fitness value of 3.2 fF. For a larger population seeded with the best configurations of the previous optimization, the design was improved by another 7% in 5 generations to a fitness value of 3.0 fF. Third, a learning control algorithm is presented that reduces the closing time of a radiofrequency microelectromechanical systems switch by minimizing bounce while maintaining robustness to fabrication variability. Electrostatic actuation of the plate causes pull-in with high impact velocities, which are difficult to control due to parameter variations from part to part. A single degree-of-freedom model was utilized to design a learning control algorithm that shapes the actuation voltage based on the open/closed state of the switch. Experiments on 3 test switches show that after 5-10 iterations, the learning algorithm lands the switch with an impact velocity not exceeding 0.2 m/s, eliminating bounce.

Predicting the Mechanical Properties of Carbon-Based Materials Using Molecular Dynamics

The development of innovative carbon-based materials can be greatly facilitated by molecular modeling techniques. Although molecular modeling has been used extensively to predict elastic properties of materials, modeling of more complex phenomenon such as fracture has only recently been possible with the development of new force fields such as ReaxFF, which is used in this work. It is not fully understood what molecular modeling parameters such as thermostat type, thermostat coupling, time step, system size, and strain rate are required for accurate modeling of fracture. Selection of modeling parameters to model fracture can be difficult and non-intuitive compared to modeling elastic properties using traditional force fields, and the errors generated by incorrect parameters may be non-obvious. These molecular modeling parameters are systematically investigated and their effects on the fracture of well-known carbon materials are analyzed. It is determined that for coupling coefficients of 250 fs and greater do not result in substantial differences in the stress-strain response of the materials using any thermostat type. A time step of 0.5 fs of smaller is required for accurate results. Strain rates greater than 2.2 ns-1 are sufficient to obtain repeatable results with slower strain rates for the materials studied. The results of this study indicate that further refinement of the Chenoweth parameter set is required to accurately predict the mechanical response of carbon-based systems. The ReaxFF has been used extensively to model systems in which bond breaking and formation occur. In particular ReaxFF has been used to model reactions of small molecules. Some elastic and fracture properties have been successfully modeled using ReaxFF in materials such as silicon and some metals. However, it is not clear if current parameterizations for ReaxFF are able to accurately reproduce the elastic and fracture properties of carbon materials. The stress-strain response of a new ReaxFF parameterization is compared to the previous parameterization and density functional theory results for well-known carbon materials. The new ReaxFF parameterization makes xv substantial improvements to the predicted mechanical response of carbon materials, and is found to be suitable for modeling the mechanical response of carbon materials. Finally, a new material composed of carbon nanotubes within an amorphous carbon (AC) matrix is modeled using the ReaxFF. Various parameters that may be experimentally controlled are investigated such as nanotube bundling, comparing multi-walled nanotube with single-walled nanotubes, and degree of functionalization of the nanotubes. Elastic and fracture properties are investigated for the composite systems and compared to results of pure-nanotube and pure-AC models. It is found that the arrangement of the nanotubes and degree of crosslinking may substantially affect the properties of the systems, particularly in the transverse directions.

Dynamic modeling of active regeneration in catalyzed and non-catalyzed diesel particulate filters

Particulate matter (PM) emissions standards set by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) have become increasingly stringent over the years. The EPA regulation for PM in heavy duty diesel engines has been reduced to 0.01 g/bhp-hr for the year 2010. Heavy duty diesel engines make use of an aftertreatment filtration device, the Diesel Particulate Filter (DPF). DPFs are highly efficient in filtering PM (known as soot) and are an integral part of 2010 heavy duty diesel aftertreatment system. PM is accumulated in the DPF as the exhaust gas flows through it. This PM needs to be removed by oxidation periodically for the efficient functioning of the filter. This oxidation process is also known as regeneration. There are 2 types of regeneration processes, namely active regeneration (oxidation of PM by external means) and passive oxidation (oxidation of PM by internal means). Active regeneration occurs typically in high temperature regions, about 500 - 600 °C, which is much higher than normal diesel exhaust temperatures. Thus, the exhaust temperature has to be raised with the help of external devices like a Diesel Oxidation Catalyst (DOC) or a fuel burner. The O2 oxidizes PM producing CO2 as oxidation product. In passive oxidation, one way of regeneration is by the use of NO2. NO2 oxidizes the PM producing NO and CO2 as oxidation products. The passive oxidation process occurs at lower temperatures (200 - 400 °C) in comparison to the active regeneration temperatures. Generally, DPF substrate walls are washcoated with catalyst material to speed up the rate of PM oxidation. The catalyst washcoat is observed to increase the rate of PM oxidation. The goal of this research is to develop a simple mathematical model to simulate the PM depletion during the active regeneration process in a DPF (catalyzed and non-catalyzed). A simple, zero-dimensional kinetic model was developed in MATLAB. Experimental data required for calibration was obtained by active regeneration experiments performed on PM loaded mini DPFs in an automated flow reactor. The DPFs were loaded with PM from the exhaust of a commercial heavy duty diesel engine. The model was calibrated to the data obtained from active regeneration experiments. Numerical gradient based optimization techniques were used to estimate the kinetic parameters of the model.

Modeling mechanical response of heterogeneous materials

Heterogeneous materials are ubiquitous in nature and as synthetic materials. These materials provide unique combination of desirable mechanical properties emerging from its heterogeneities at different length scales. Future structural and technological applications will require the development of advanced light weight materials with superior strength and toughness. Cost effective design of the advanced high performance synthetic materials by tailoring their microstructure is the challenge facing the materials design community. Prior knowledge of structure-property relationships for these materials is imperative for optimal design. Thus, understanding such relationships for heterogeneous materials is of primary interest. Furthermore, computational burden is becoming critical concern in several areas of heterogeneous materials design. Therefore, computationally efficient and accurate predictive tools are highly essential. In the present study, we mainly focus on mechanical behavior of soft cellular materials and tough biological material such as mussel byssus thread. Cellular materials exhibit microstructural heterogeneity by interconnected network of same material phase. However, mussel byssus thread comprises of two distinct material phases. A robust numerical framework is developed to investigate the micromechanisms behind the macroscopic response of both of these materials. Using this framework, effect of microstuctural parameters has been addressed on the stress state of cellular specimens during split Hopkinson pressure bar test. A voronoi tessellation based algorithm has been developed to simulate the cellular microstructure. Micromechanisms (microinertia, microbuckling and microbending) governing macroscopic behavior of cellular solids are investigated thoroughly with respect to various microstructural and loading parameters. To understand the origin of high toughness of mussel byssus thread, a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based optimization framework has been developed. It is found that two different material phases (collagens) of mussel byssus thread are optimally distributed along the thread. These applications demonstrate that the presence of heterogeneity in the system demands high computational resources for simulation and modeling. Thus, Higher Dimensional Model Representation (HDMR) based surrogate modeling concept has been proposed to reduce computational complexity. The applicability of such methodology has been demonstrated in failure envelope construction and in multiscale finite element techniques. It is observed that surrogate based model can capture the behavior of complex material systems with sufficient accuracy. The computational algorithms presented in this thesis will further pave the way for accurate prediction of macroscopic deformation behavior of various class of advanced materials from their measurable microstructural features at a reasonable computational cost.

Multi-software modeling technique for field distribution propagation through an optical vertical interconnect assembly

Embedded siloxane polymer waveguides have shown promising results for use in optical backplanes. They exhibit high temperature stability, low optical absorption, and require common processing techniques. A challenging aspect of this technology is out-of-plane coupling of the waveguides. A multi-software approach to modeling an optical vertical interconnect (via) is proposed. This approach utilizes the beam propagation method to generate varied modal field distribution structures which are then propagated through a via model using the angular spectrum propagation technique. Simulation results show average losses between 2.5 and 4.5 dB for different initial input conditions. Certain configurations show losses of less than 3 dB and it is shown that in an input/output pair of vias, average losses per via may be lower than the targeted 3 dB.

Molecular Modeling of PMR-15 Polyimide

PMR-15 polyimide is a polymer that is used as a matrix in composites. These composites with PMR-15 matrices are called advanced polymer matrix composite that is abundantly used in the aerospace and electronics industries because of its high temperature resistivity. Apart from having high temperature sustainability, PMR-15 composites also display good thermal-oxidative stability, mechanical properties, processability and low costs, which makes it a suitable material for manufacturing aircraft structures. PMR-15 uses the reverse Diels-Alder (RDA) method for crosslinking which provides it with the groundwork for its distinctive thermal stability and a range of 280-300 degree Centigrade use temperature. Regardless of such desirable properties, this material has a number of limitations that compromises its application on a large scale basis. PMR-15 composites has been known to be very vulnerable to micro-cracking at inter and intra-laminar cracking. But the major factor that hinders its demand is PMR-15's carcinogenic constituent, methylene dianilineme (MDA), also a liver toxin. The necessity of providing a safe working environment during its production adds up to the cost of this material. In this study, Molecular Dynamics and Energy Minimization techniques are utilized to simulate a structure of PMR-15 at a given density of 1.324 g/cc and an attempt to recreate the polyimide to reduce the number of experimental testing and hence subdue the health hazards as well as the cost involved in its production. Even though this study does not involve in validating any mechanical properties of the model, it could be used in future for the validation of its properties and further testing for different properties like aging, microcracking, creep etc.

MULTISCALE EXAMINATION AND MODELING OF ELECTRON TRANSPORT IN NANOSCALE MATERIALS AND DEVICES

For half a century the integrated circuits (ICs) that make up the heart of electronic devices have been steadily improving by shrinking at an exponential rate. However, as the current crop of ICs get smaller and the insulating layers involved become thinner, electrons leak through due to quantum mechanical tunneling. This is one of several issues which will bring an end to this incredible streak of exponential improvement of this type of transistor device, after which future improvements will have to come from employing fundamentally different transistor architecture rather than fine tuning and miniaturizing the metal-oxide-semiconductor field effect transistors (MOSFETs) in use today. Several new transistor designs, some designed and built here at Michigan Tech, involve electrons tunneling their way through arrays of nanoparticles. We use a multi-scale approach to model these devices and study their behavior. For investigating the tunneling characteristics of the individual junctions, we use a first-principles approach to model conduction between sub-nanometer gold particles. To estimate the change in energy due to the movement of individual electrons, we use the finite element method to calculate electrostatic capacitances. The kinetic Monte Carlo method allows us to use our knowledge of these details to simulate the dynamics of an entire device— sometimes consisting of hundreds of individual particles—and watch as a device ‘turns on’ and starts conducting an electric current. Scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) and the closely related scanning tunneling spectroscopy (STS) are a family of powerful experimental techniques that allow for the probing and imaging of surfaces and molecules at atomic resolution. However, interpretation of the results often requires comparison with theoretical and computational models. We have developed a new method for calculating STM topographs and STS spectra. This method combines an established method for approximating the geometric variation of the electronic density of states, with a modern method for calculating spin-dependent tunneling currents, offering a unique balance between accuracy and accessibility.

STATE-AND-TRANSITION MODELING AND ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT: TOOLS FOR FUTURE CO-DEVELOPMENT OF MADAGASCAR’S NATURAL RESOURCES AND PEOPLE

Madagascar’s terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems have long supported a unique set of ecological communities, many of whom are endemic to the tropical island. Those same ecosystems have been a source of valuable natural resources to some of the poorest people in the world. Nevertheless, with pride, ingenuity and resourcefulness, the Malagasy people of the southwest coast, being of Vezo identity, subsist with low development fishing techniques aimed at an increasingly threatened host of aquatic seascapes. Mangroves, sea grass bed, and coral reefs of the region are under increased pressure from the general populace for both food provisions and support of economic opportunity. Besides purveyors and extractors, the coastal waters are also subject to a number of natural stressors, including cyclones and invasive, predator species of both flora and fauna. In addition, the aquatic ecosystems of the region are undergoing increased nutrient and sediment runoff due, in part, to Madagascar’s heavy reliance on land for agricultural purposes (Scales, 2011). Moreover, its coastal waters, like so many throughout the world, have been proven to be warming at an alarming rate over the past few decades. In recognizing the intimate interconnectedness of the both the social and ecological systems, conservation organizations have invoked a host of complimentary conservation and social development efforts with the dual aim of preserving or restoring the health of both the coastal ecosystems and the people of the region. This paper provides a way of thinking more holistically about the social-ecological system within a resiliency frame of understanding. Secondly, it applies a platform known as state-and-transition modeling to give form to the process. State-and-transition modeling is an iterative investigation into the physical makeup of a system of study as well as the boundaries and influences on that state, and has been used in restorative ecology for more than a decade. Lastly, that model is sited within an adaptive management scheme that provides a structured, cyclical, objective-oriented process for testing stakeholders cognitive understanding of the ecosystem through a pragmatic implementation and monitoring a host of small-scale interventions developed as part of the adaptive management process. Throughout, evidence of the application of the theories and frameworks are offered, with every effort made to retool conservation-minded development practitioners with a comprehensive strategy for addressing the increasingly fragile social-ecological systems of southwest Madagascar. It is offered, in conclusion, that the seascapes of the region would be an excellent case study worthy of future application of state-and-transition modeling and adaptive management as frameworks for conservation-minded development practitioners whose multiple projects, each with its own objective, have been implemented with a single goal in mind: preserve and protect the state of the supporting environment while providing for the basic needs of the local Malagasy people.

SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING AS A QUANTITATIVE-QUALITATIVE FRAMEWORK FOR SUSTAINABLE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT: INSIGHTS FOR WATER QUALITY POLICY IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION

Early water resources modeling efforts were aimed mostly at representing hydrologic processes, but the need for interdisciplinary studies has led to increasing complexity and integration of environmental, social, and economic functions. The gradual shift from merely employing engineering-based simulation models to applying more holistic frameworks is an indicator of promising changes in the traditional paradigm for the application of water resources models, supporting more sustainable management decisions. This dissertation contributes to application of a quantitative-qualitative framework for sustainable water resources management using system dynamics simulation, as well as environmental systems analysis techniques to provide insights for water quality management in the Great Lakes basin. The traditional linear thinking paradigm lacks the mental and organizational framework for sustainable development trajectories, and may lead to quick-fix solutions that fail to address key drivers of water resources problems. To facilitate holistic analysis of water resources systems, systems thinking seeks to understand interactions among the subsystems. System dynamics provides a suitable framework for operationalizing systems thinking and its application to water resources problems by offering useful qualitative tools such as causal loop diagrams (CLD), stock-and-flow diagrams (SFD), and system archetypes. The approach provides a high-level quantitative-qualitative modeling framework for "big-picture" understanding of water resources systems, stakeholder participation, policy analysis, and strategic decision making. While quantitative modeling using extensive computer simulations and optimization is still very important and needed for policy screening, qualitative system dynamics models can improve understanding of general trends and the root causes of problems, and thus promote sustainable water resources decision making. Within the system dynamics framework, a growth and underinvestment (G&U) system archetype governing Lake Allegan's eutrophication problem was hypothesized to explain the system's problematic behavior and identify policy leverage points for mitigation. A system dynamics simulation model was developed to characterize the lake's recovery from its hypereutrophic state and assess a number of proposed total maximum daily load (TMDL) reduction policies, including phosphorus load reductions from point sources (PS) and non-point sources (NPS). It was shown that, for a TMDL plan to be effective, it should be considered a component of a continuous sustainability process, which considers the functionality of dynamic feedback relationships between socio-economic growth, land use change, and environmental conditions. Furthermore, a high-level simulation-optimization framework was developed to guide watershed scale BMP implementation in the Kalamazoo watershed. Agricultural BMPs should be given priority in the watershed in order to facilitate cost-efficient attainment of the Lake Allegan's TP concentration target. However, without adequate support policies, agricultural BMP implementation may adversely affect the agricultural producers. Results from a case study of the Maumee River basin show that coordinated BMP implementation across upstream and downstream watersheds can significantly improve cost efficiency of TP load abatement.