Investigation of surface water/groundwater relationships in a rural watershed in Southern Honduras

Despite failed attempts at obtaining a potable water system, the village of El Caracol in Southern Honduras remains committed to improving access to water resources. To assist in this endeavor, an investigation of the hydrogeological characteristics of the local watershed was conducted. Daily precipitation was recorded to examine the relationship between precipitation and approximated river and spring discharges. A Thornthwaite Mather Water Balance Model was used to predict monthly discharges for comparison with observed values, and to infer the percentage of topographic watersheds contributing to the respective discharges. As aquifer porosity in this region is thought to be primarily secondary (i.e., fractures), field observed lineaments were compared with those interpreted from remote sensing imagery in an attempt to determine the usefulness of these interpretations in locating potential water sources for a future project.

A STUDY OF SO2 EMISSIONS AND GROUND SURFACE DISPLACEMENTS AT LASTARRIA VOLCANO, ANTOFAGASTA REGION, NORTHERN CHILE

Lastarria volcano (Chile) is located at the North-West margin of the `Lazufre' ground inflation signal (37x45 km²), constantly uplifting at a rate of ~2.5 cm/year since 1996 (Pritchard and Simons 2002; Froger et al. 2007). The Lastarria volcano has the double interest to be superimposed on a second, smaller-scale inflation signal and to be the only degassing area of the Lazufre signal. In this project, we compared daily SO2 burdens recorded by AURA's OMI mission for 2005-2010 with Ground Surface Displacements (GSD) calculated from the Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) images for 2003-2010. We found a constant maximum displacement rate of 2.44 cm/year for the period 2003-2007 and 0.80- 0.95 cm/year for the period 2007-2010. Total SO2 emitted is 67.0 kT for the period 2005-2010, but detection of weak SO2 degassing signals in the Andes remains challenging owing to increased noise in the South Atlantic radiation Anomaly region.

A PETROPHYSICAL EVALUATION OF THE TRENTON-BLACK RIVER FORMATION OF THE MICHIGAN BASIN

This work is conducted to study the geological and petrophysical features of the Trenton- Black River limestone formation. Log curves, crossplots and mineral identification methods using well-log data are used to determine the components and analyze changes in lithology. Thirty-five wells from the Michigan Basin are used to define the mineralogy of Trenton-Black River limestone. Using the different responses of a few log curves, especially gamma-ray, resistivity and neutron porosity, the formation tops for the Utica shale, the Trenton limestone, the Black River limestone and the Prairie du Chien sandstone are identified to confirm earlier authors’ work and provide a basis for my further work. From these, an isopach map showing the thickness of Trenton-Black River formation is created, indicating that its maximum thickness lies in the eastern basin and decreases gradually to the west. In order to obtain more detailed lithological information about the limestone formations at the thirty-five wells, (a) neutron-density and neutron-sonic crossplots, (b) mineral identification methods, including the M-N plot, MID plot, ϱmaa vs. Umaa MID plot, and the PEF plot, and (c) a modified mineral identification technique are applied to these wells. From this, compositions of the Trenton-Black River formation can be divided into three different rock types: pure limestone, partially dolomitized limestone, and shaly limestone. Maps showing the fraction of dolomite and shale indicate their geographic distribution, with dolomite present more in the western and southwestern basin, and shale more common in the north-central basin. Mineral identification is an independent check on the distribution found from other authors, who found similar distributions based on core descriptions. The Thomas Stieber method of analysis is best suited to sand-shale sequences, interpreting hree different distributions of shale within sand, including dispersed, laminated and structural. Since this method is commonly applied in clastic rocks, my work using the Thomas Stieber method is new, as an attempt to apply this technique, developed for clastics, to carbonate rocks. Based on the original assumption and equations with a corresponding change to the Trenton-Black River formation, feasibility of using the Thomas Stieber method in carbonates is tested. A graphical display of gamma-ray versus density porosity, using the properties of clean carbonate and pure shale, suggests the presence of laminated shale in fourteen wells in this study. Combined with Wilson’s study (2001), it is safe to conclude that when shale occurs in the Trenton-Black River formation, it tends to be laminated shale.

PARTICIPANT IMPACTS FROM A PARTICIPATORY WATER MODELING WORKSHOP IN THE SONORA RIVER BASIN, MEXICO

Much of the research in the field of participatory modeling (PM) has focused on the developed world. Few cases are focused on developing regions, and even fewer on Latin American developing countries. The work that has been done in Latin America has often involved water management, often specifically involving water users, and has not focused on the decision making stage of the policy cycle. Little work has been done to measure the effect PM may have on the perceptions and beliefs of decision makers. In fact, throughout the field of PM, very few attempts have been made to quantitatively measure changes in participant beliefs and perceptions following participation. Of the very few exceptions, none have attempted to measure the long-term change in perceptions and beliefs. This research fills that gap. As part of a participatory modeling project in Sonora, Mexico, a region with water quantity and quality problems, I measured the change in beliefs among participants about water models: ability to use and understand them, their usefulness, and their accuracy. I also measured changes in beliefs about climate change, and about water quantity problems, specifically the causes, solutions, and impacts. I also assessed participant satisfaction with the process and outputs from the participatory modeling workshops. Participants were from water agencies, academic institutions, NGOs, and independent consulting firms. Results indicated that participant comfort and self-efficacy with water models, their beliefs in the usefulness of water models, and their beliefs about the impact of water quantity problems changed significantly as a result of the workshops. I present my findings and discuss the results.

SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING AS A QUANTITATIVE-QUALITATIVE FRAMEWORK FOR SUSTAINABLE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT: INSIGHTS FOR WATER QUALITY POLICY IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION

Early water resources modeling efforts were aimed mostly at representing hydrologic processes, but the need for interdisciplinary studies has led to increasing complexity and integration of environmental, social, and economic functions. The gradual shift from merely employing engineering-based simulation models to applying more holistic frameworks is an indicator of promising changes in the traditional paradigm for the application of water resources models, supporting more sustainable management decisions. This dissertation contributes to application of a quantitative-qualitative framework for sustainable water resources management using system dynamics simulation, as well as environmental systems analysis techniques to provide insights for water quality management in the Great Lakes basin. The traditional linear thinking paradigm lacks the mental and organizational framework for sustainable development trajectories, and may lead to quick-fix solutions that fail to address key drivers of water resources problems. To facilitate holistic analysis of water resources systems, systems thinking seeks to understand interactions among the subsystems. System dynamics provides a suitable framework for operationalizing systems thinking and its application to water resources problems by offering useful qualitative tools such as causal loop diagrams (CLD), stock-and-flow diagrams (SFD), and system archetypes. The approach provides a high-level quantitative-qualitative modeling framework for "big-picture" understanding of water resources systems, stakeholder participation, policy analysis, and strategic decision making. While quantitative modeling using extensive computer simulations and optimization is still very important and needed for policy screening, qualitative system dynamics models can improve understanding of general trends and the root causes of problems, and thus promote sustainable water resources decision making. Within the system dynamics framework, a growth and underinvestment (G&U) system archetype governing Lake Allegan's eutrophication problem was hypothesized to explain the system's problematic behavior and identify policy leverage points for mitigation. A system dynamics simulation model was developed to characterize the lake's recovery from its hypereutrophic state and assess a number of proposed total maximum daily load (TMDL) reduction policies, including phosphorus load reductions from point sources (PS) and non-point sources (NPS). It was shown that, for a TMDL plan to be effective, it should be considered a component of a continuous sustainability process, which considers the functionality of dynamic feedback relationships between socio-economic growth, land use change, and environmental conditions. Furthermore, a high-level simulation-optimization framework was developed to guide watershed scale BMP implementation in the Kalamazoo watershed. Agricultural BMPs should be given priority in the watershed in order to facilitate cost-efficient attainment of the Lake Allegan's TP concentration target. However, without adequate support policies, agricultural BMP implementation may adversely affect the agricultural producers. Results from a case study of the Maumee River basin show that coordinated BMP implementation across upstream and downstream watersheds can significantly improve cost efficiency of TP load abatement.

Big Manistee River Tributaries as Potential Arctic Grayling Habitat

The Big Manistee River was one of the most well known Michigan rivers to historically support a population of Arctic grayling (Thymallus arctics). Overfishing, competition with introduced fish, and habitat loss due to logging are believed to have caused their decline and ultimate extirpation from the Big Manistee River around 1900 and from the State of Michigan by 1936. Grayling are a species of great cultural importance to Little River Band of Ottawa Indian tribal heritage and although past attempts to reintroduce Arctic grayling have been unsuccessful, a continued interest in their return led to the assessment of environmental conditions of tributaries within a 21 kilometer section of the Big Manistee River to determine if suitable habitat exists. Although data describing historical conditions in the Big Manistee River is limited, we reviewed the literature to determine abiotic conditions prior to Arctic grayling disappearance and the habitat conditions in rivers in western and northwestern North America where they currently exist. We assessed abiotic habitat metrics from 23 sites distributed across 8 tributaries within the Manistee River watershed. Data collected included basic water parameters, streambed substrate composition, channel profile and areal measurements of channel geomorphic unit, and stream velocity and discharge measurements. These environmental condition values were compared to literature values, habitat suitability thresholds, and current conditions of rivers with Arctic grayling populations to assess the feasibility of the abiotic habitat in Big Manistee River tributaries to support Arctic grayling. Although the historic grayling habitat in the region was disturbed during the era of major logging around the turn of the 20th century, our results indicate that some important abiotic conditions within Big Manistee River tributaries are within the range of conditions that support current and past populations of Arctic grayling. Seven tributaries contained between 20-30% pools by area, used by grayling for refuge. All but two tributaries were composed primarily of pebbles, with the remaining two dominated by fine substrates (sand, silt, clay). Basic water parameters and channel depth were within the ranges of those found for populations of Arctic grayling persisting in Montana, Alaska, and Canada for all tributaries. Based on the metrics analyzed in this study, suitable abiotic grayling habitat does exist in Big Manistee River tributaries.