Towards greater accuracy in individual-tree mortality regression

Background mortality is an essential component of any forest growth and yield model. Forecasts of mortality contribute largely to the variability and accuracy of model predictions at the tree, stand and forest level. In the present study, I implement and evaluate state-of-the-art techniques to increase the accuracy of individual tree mortality models, similar to those used in many of the current variants of the Forest Vegetation Simulator, using data from North Idaho and Montana. The first technique addresses methods to correct for bias induced by measurement error typically present in competition variables. The second implements survival regression and evaluates its performance against the traditional logistic regression approach. I selected the regression calibration (RC) algorithm as a good candidate for addressing the measurement error problem. Two logistic regression models for each species were fitted, one ignoring the measurement error, which is the “naïve” approach, and the other applying RC. The models fitted with RC outperformed the naïve models in terms of discrimination when the competition variable was found to be statistically significant. The effect of RC was more obvious where measurement error variance was large and for more shade-intolerant species. The process of model fitting and variable selection revealed that past emphasis on DBH as a predictor variable for mortality, while producing models with strong metrics of fit, may make models less generalizable. The evaluation of the error variance estimator developed by Stage and Wykoff (1998), and core to the implementation of RC, in different spatial patterns and diameter distributions, revealed that the Stage and Wykoff estimate notably overestimated the true variance in all simulated stands, but those that are clustered. Results show a systematic bias even when all the assumptions made by the authors are guaranteed. I argue that this is the result of the Poisson-based estimate ignoring the overlapping area of potential plots around a tree. Effects, especially in the application phase, of the variance estimate justify suggested future efforts of improving the accuracy of the variance estimate. The second technique implemented and evaluated is a survival regression model that accounts for the time dependent nature of variables, such as diameter and competition variables, and the interval-censored nature of data collected from remeasured plots. The performance of the model is compared with the traditional logistic regression model as a tool to predict individual tree mortality. Validation of both approaches shows that the survival regression approach discriminates better between dead and alive trees for all species. In conclusion, I showed that the proposed techniques do increase the accuracy of individual tree mortality models, and are a promising first step towards the next generation of background mortality models. I have also identified the next steps to undertake in order to advance mortality models further.

Land use/cover change using Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems : Pic Macaya National Park, Haiti

A post classification change detection technique based on a hybrid classification approach (unsupervised and supervised) was applied to Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat Enhanced Thematic Plus (ETM+), and ASTER images acquired in 1987, 2000 and 2004 respectively to map land use/cover changes in the Pic Macaya National Park in the southern region of Haiti. Each image was classified individually into six land use/cover classes: built-up, agriculture, herbaceous, open pine forest, mixed forest, and barren land using unsupervised ISODATA and maximum likelihood supervised classifiers with the aid of field collected ground truth data collected in the field. Ground truth information, collected in the field in December 2007, and including equalized stratified random points which were visual interpreted were used to assess the accuracy of the classification results. The overall accuracy of the land classification for each image was respectively: 1987 (82%), 2000 (82%), 2004 (87%). A post classification change detection technique was used to produce change images for 1987 to 2000, 1987 to 2004, and 2000 to 2004. It was found that significant changes in the land use/cover occurred over the 17- year period. The results showed increases in built up (from 10% to 17%) and herbaceous (from 5% to 14%) areas between 1987 and 2004. The increase of herbaceous was mostly caused by the abandonment of exhausted agriculture lands. At the same time, open pine forest and mixed forest areas lost (75%) and (83%) of their area to other land use/cover types. Open pine forest (from 20% to 14%) and mixed forest (from18 to 12%) were transformed into agriculture area or barren land. This study illustrated the continuing deforestation, land degradation and soil erosion in the region, which in turn is leading to decrease in vegetative cover. The study also showed the importance of Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) technologies to estimate timely changes in the land use/cover, and to evaluate their causes in order to design an ecological based management plan for the park.

Bayesian change-point analysis in linear regression model with scale mixtures of normal distributions

In this thesis, we consider Bayesian inference on the detection of variance change-point models with scale mixtures of normal (for short SMN) distributions. This class of distributions is symmetric and thick-tailed and includes as special cases: Gaussian, Student-t, contaminated normal, and slash distributions. The proposed models provide greater flexibility to analyze a lot of practical data, which often show heavy-tail and may not satisfy the normal assumption. As to the Bayesian analysis, we specify some prior distributions for the unknown parameters in the variance change-point models with the SMN distributions. Due to the complexity of the joint posterior distribution, we propose an efficient Gibbs-type with Metropolis- Hastings sampling algorithm for posterior Bayesian inference. Thereafter, following the idea of [1], we consider the problems of the single and multiple change-point detections. The performance of the proposed procedures is illustrated and analyzed by simulation studies. A real application to the closing price data of U.S. stock market has been analyzed for illustrative purposes.