Evaluation of flood risk in response to climate variability

Standard procedures for forecasting flood risk (Bulletin 17B) assume annual maximum flood (AMF) series are stationary, meaning the distribution of flood flows is not significantly affected by climatic trends/cycles, or anthropogenic activities within the watershed. Historical flood events are therefore considered representative of future flood occurrences, and the risk associated with a given flood magnitude is modeled as constant over time. However, in light of increasing evidence to the contrary, this assumption should be reconsidered, especially as the existence of nonstationarity in AMF series can have significant impacts on planning and management of water resources and relevant infrastructure. Research presented in this thesis quantifies the degree of nonstationarity evident in AMF series for unimpaired watersheds throughout the contiguous U.S., identifies meteorological, climatic, and anthropogenic causes of this nonstationarity, and proposes an extension of the Bulletin 17B methodology which yields forecasts of flood risk that reflect climatic influences on flood magnitude. To appropriately forecast flood risk, it is necessary to consider the driving causes of nonstationarity in AMF series. Herein, large-scale climate patterns—including El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)—are identified as influencing factors on flood magnitude at numerous stations across the U.S. Strong relationships between flood magnitude and associated precipitation series were also observed for the majority of sites analyzed in the Upper Midwest and Northeastern regions of the U.S. Although relationships between flood magnitude and associated temperature series are not apparent, results do indicate that temperature is highly correlated with the timing of flood peaks. Despite consideration of watersheds classified as unimpaired, analyses also suggest that identified change-points in AMF series are due to dam construction, and other types of regulation and diversion. Although not explored herein, trends in AMF series are also likely to be partially explained by changes in land use and land cover over time. Results obtained herein suggest that improved forecasts of flood risk may be obtained using a simple modification of the Bulletin 17B framework, wherein the mean and standard deviation of the log-transformed flows are modeled as functions of climate indices associated with oceanic-atmospheric patterns (e.g. AMO, ENSO, NAO, and PDO) with lead times between 3 and 9 months. Herein, one-year ahead forecasts of the mean and standard deviation, and subsequently flood risk, are obtained by applying site specific multivariate regression models, which reflect the phase and intensity of a given climate pattern, as well as possible impacts of coupling of the climate cycles. These forecasts of flood risk are compared with forecasts derived using the existing Bulletin 17B model; large differences in the one-year ahead forecasts are observed in some locations. The increased knowledge of the inherent structure of AMF series and an improved understanding of physical and/or climatic causes of nonstationarity gained from this research should serve as insight for the formulation of a physical-casual based statistical model, incorporating both climatic variations and human impacts, for flood risk over longer planning horizons (e.g., 10-, 50, 100-years) necessary for water resources design, planning, and management.

Automated design of self-stabilization

Self-stabilization is a property of a distributed system such that, regardless of the legitimacy of its current state, the system behavior shall eventually reach a legitimate state and shall remain legitimate thereafter. The elegance of self-stabilization stems from the fact that it distinguishes distributed systems by a strong fault tolerance property against arbitrary state perturbations. The difficulty of designing and reasoning about self-stabilization has been witnessed by many researchers; most of the existing techniques for the verification and design of self-stabilization are either brute-force, or adopt manual approaches non-amenable to automation. In this dissertation, we first investigate the possibility of automatically designing self-stabilization through global state space exploration. In particular, we develop a set of heuristics for automating the addition of recovery actions to distributed protocols on various network topologies. Our heuristics equally exploit the computational power of a single workstation and the available parallelism on computer clusters. We obtain existing and new stabilizing solutions for classical protocols like maximal matching, ring coloring, mutual exclusion, leader election and agreement. Second, we consider a foundation for local reasoning about self-stabilization; i.e., study the global behavior of the distributed system by exploring the state space of just one of its components. It turns out that local reasoning about deadlocks and livelocks is possible for an interesting class of protocols whose proof of stabilization is otherwise complex. In particular, we provide necessary and sufficient conditions – verifiable in the local state space of every process – for global deadlock- and livelock-freedom of protocols on ring topologies. Local reasoning potentially circumvents two fundamental problems that complicate the automated design and verification of distributed protocols: (1) state explosion and (2) partial state information. Moreover, local proofs of convergence are independent of the number of processes in the network, thereby enabling our assertions about deadlocks and livelocks to apply on rings of arbitrary sizes without worrying about state explosion.

FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT UNDER HISTORICAL AND PREDICTED LAND USE CHANGE USING CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC MODELING

Current procedures for flood risk estimation assume flood distributions are stationary over time, meaning annual maximum flood (AMF) series are not affected by climatic variation, land use/land cover (LULC) change, or management practices. Thus, changes in LULC and climate are generally not accounted for in policy and design related to flood risk/control, and historical flood events are deemed representative of future flood risk. These assumptions need to be re-evaluated, however, as climate change and anthropogenic activities have been observed to have large impacts on flood risk in many areas. In particular, understanding the effects of LULC change is essential to the study and understanding of global environmental change and the consequent hydrologic responses. The research presented herein provides possible causation for observed nonstationarity in AMF series with respect to changes in LULC, as well as a means to assess the degree to which future LULC change will impact flood risk. Four watersheds in the Midwest, Northeastern, and Central United States were studied to determine flood risk associated with historical and future projected LULC change. Historical single framed aerial images dating back to the mid-1950s were used along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing models (SPRING and ERDAS) to create historical land use maps. The Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land Use Change (FORE-SCE) model was applied to generate future LULC maps annually from 2006 to 2100 for the conterminous U.S. based on the four IPCC-SRES future emission scenario conditions. These land use maps were input into previously calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models for two case study watersheds. In order to isolate effects of LULC change, the only variable parameter was the Runoff Curve Number associated with the land use layer. All simulations were run with daily climate data from 1978-1999, consistent with the 'base' model which employed the 1992 NLCD to represent 'current' conditions. Output daily maximum flows were converted to instantaneous AMF series and were subsequently modeled using a Log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution to evaluate flood risk. Analysis of the progression of LULC change over the historic period and associated SWAT outputs revealed that AMF magnitudes tend to increase over time in response to increasing degrees of urbanization. This is consistent with positive trends in the AMF series identified in previous studies, although there are difficulties identifying correlations between LULC change and identified change points due to large time gaps in the generated historical LULC maps, mainly caused by unavailability of sufficient quality historic aerial imagery. Similarly, increases in the mean and median AMF magnitude were observed in response to future LULC change projections, with the tails of the distributions remaining reasonably constant. FORE-SCE scenario A2 was found to have the most dramatic impact on AMF series, consistent with more extreme projections of population growth, demands for growing energy sources, agricultural land, and urban expansion, while AMF outputs based on scenario B2 showed little changes for the future as the focus is on environmental conservation and regional solutions to environmental issues.

DESIGN AND APPLICATION OF WIRELESS PASSIVE MAGNETOELASTIC RESONANCE AND MAGNETOHARMONIC FORCE SENSORS

The objective of the work described in this dissertation is the development of new wireless passive force monitoring platforms for applications in the medical field, specifically monitoring lower limb prosthetics. The developed sensors consist of stress sensitive, magnetically soft amorphous metallic glass materials. The first technology is based on magnetoelastic resonance. Specifically, when exposed to an AC excitation field along with a constant DC bias field, the magnetoelastic material mechanically vibrates, and may reaches resonance if the field frequency matches the mechanical resonant frequency of the material. The presented work illustrates that an applied loading pins portions of the strip, effectively decreasing the strip length, which results in an increase in the frequency of the resonance. The developed technology is deployed in a prototype lower limb prosthetic sleeve for monitoring forces experienced by the distal end of the residuum. This work also reports on the development of a magnetoharmonic force sensor comprised of the same material. According to the Villari effect, an applied loading to the material results in a change in the permeability of the magnetic sensor which is visualized as an increase in the higher-order harmonic fields of the material. Specifically, by applying a constant low frequency AC field and sweeping the applied DC biasing field, the higher-order harmonic components of the magnetic response can be visualized. This sensor technology was also instrumented onto a lower limb prosthetic for proof of deployment; however, the magnetoharmonic sensor illustrated complications with sensor positioning and a necessity to tailor the interface mechanics between the sensing material and the surface being monitored. The novelty of these two technologies is in their wireless passive nature which allows for long term monitoring over the life time of a given device. Additionally, the developed technologies are low cost. Recommendations for future works include improving the system for real-time monitoring, useful for data collection outside of a clinical setting.