Performance-Based Engineering Framework for Earthquake and Fire Following Earthquake

The objective for this thesis is to outline a Performance-Based Engineering (PBE) framework to address the multiple hazards of Earthquake (EQ) and subsequent Fire Following Earthquake (FFE). Currently, fire codes for the United States are largely empirical and prescriptive in nature. The reliance on prescriptive requirements makes quantifying sustained damage due to fire difficult. Additionally, the empirical standards have resulted from individual member or individual assembly furnace testing, which have been shown to differ greatly from full structural system behavior. The very nature of fire behavior (ignition, growth, suppression, and spread) is fundamentally difficult to quantify due to the inherent randomness present in each stage of fire development. The study of interactions between earthquake damage and fire behavior is also in its infancy with essentially no available empirical testing results. This thesis will present a literature review, a discussion, and critique of the state-of-the-art, and a summary of software currently being used to estimate loss due to EQ and FFE. A generalized PBE framework for EQ and subsequent FFE is presented along with a combined hazard probability to performance objective matrix and a table of variables necessary to fully implement the proposed framework. Future research requirements and summary are also provided with discussions of the difficulties inherent in adequately describing the multiple hazards of EQ and FFE.

Boreal forest fire impacts on lower troposphere carbon monoxide and ozone levels at the regional to hemispheric scales

Tropospheric ozone (O3) and carbon monoxide (CO) pollution in the Northern Hemisphere is commonly thought to be of anthropogenic origin. While this is true in most cases, copious quantities of pollutants are emitted by fires in boreal regions, and the impact of these fires on CO has been shown to significantly exceed the impact of urban and industrial sources during large fire years. The impact of boreal fires on ozone is still poorly quantified, and large uncertainties exist in the estimates of the fire-released nitrogen oxides (NO x ), a critical factor in ozone production. As boreal fire activity is predicted to increase in the future due to its strong dependence on weather conditions, it is necessary to understand how these fires affect atmospheric composition. To determine the scale of boreal fire impacts on ozone and its precursors, this work combined statistical analysis of ground-based measurements downwind of fires, satellite data analysis, transport modeling and the results of chemical model simulations. The first part of this work focused on determining boreal fire impact on ozone levels downwind of fires, using analysis of observations in several-days-old fire plumes intercepted at the Pico Mountain station (Azores). The results of this study revealed that fires significantly increase midlatitude summertime ozone background during high fire years, implying that predicted future increases in boreal wildfires may affect ozone levels over large regions in the Northern Hemisphere. To improve current estimates of NOx emissions from boreal fires, we further analyzed ΔNOy /ΔCO enhancement ratios in the observed fire plumes together with transport modeling of fire emission estimates. The results of this analysis revealed the presence of a considerable seasonal trend in the fire NOx /CO emission ratio due to the late-summer changes in burning properties. This finding implies that the constant NOx /CO emission ratio currently used in atmospheric modeling is unrealistic, and is likely to introduce a significant bias in the estimated ozone production. Finally, satellite observations were used to determine the impact of fires on atmospheric burdens of nitrogen dioxide (NO2 ) and formaldehyde (HCHO) in the North American boreal region. This analysis demonstrated that fires dominated the HCHO burden over the fires and in plumes up to two days old. This finding provides insights into the magnitude of secondary HCHO production and further enhances scientific understanding of the atmospheric impacts of boreal fires.