6 resultados para Error estimator

em Digital Commons - Michigan Tech


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A free-space optical (FSO) laser communication system with perfect fast-tracking experiences random power fading due to atmospheric turbulence. For a FSO communication system without fast-tracking or with imperfect fast-tracking, the fading probability density function (pdf) is also affected by the pointing error. In this thesis, the overall fading pdfs of FSO communication system with pointing errors are calculated using an analytical method based on the fast-tracked on-axis and off-axis fading pdfs and the fast-tracked beam profile of a turbulence channel. The overall fading pdf is firstly studied for the FSO communication system with collimated laser beam. Large-scale numerical wave-optics simulations are performed to verify the analytically calculated fading pdf with collimated beam under various turbulence channels and pointing errors. The calculated overall fading pdfs are almost identical to the directly simulated fading pdfs. The calculated overall fading pdfs are also compared with the gamma-gamma (GG) and the log-normal (LN) fading pdf models. They fit better than both the GG and LN fading pdf models under different receiver aperture sizes in all the studied cases. Further, the analytical method is expanded to the FSO communication system with beam diverging angle case. It is shown that the gamma pdf model is still valid for the fast-tracked on-axis and off-axis fading pdfs with point-like receiver aperture when the laser beam is propagated with beam diverging angle. Large-scale numerical wave-optics simulations prove that the analytically calculated fading pdfs perfectly fit the overall fading pdfs for both focused and diverged beam cases. The influence of the fast-tracked on-axis and off-axis fading pdfs, the fast-tracked beam profile, and the pointing error on the overall fading pdf is also discussed. At last, the analytical method is compared with the previous heuristic fading pdf models proposed since 1970s. Although some of previously proposed fading pdf models provide close fit to the experiment and simulation data, these close fits only exist under particular conditions. Only analytical method shows accurate fit to the directly simulated fading pdfs under different turbulence strength, propagation distances, receiver aperture sizes and pointing errors.

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To estimate a parameter in an elliptic boundary value problem, the method of equation error chooses the value that minimizes the error in the PDE and boundary condition (the solution of the BVP having been replaced by a measurement). The estimated parameter converges to the exact value as the measured data converge to the exact value, provided Tikhonov regularization is used to control the instability inherent in the problem. The error in the estimated solution can be bounded in an appropriate quotient norm; estimates can be derived for both the underlying (infinite-dimensional) problem and a finite-element discretization that can be implemented in a practical algorithm. Numerical experiments demonstrate the efficacy and limitations of the method.

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Background mortality is an essential component of any forest growth and yield model. Forecasts of mortality contribute largely to the variability and accuracy of model predictions at the tree, stand and forest level. In the present study, I implement and evaluate state-of-the-art techniques to increase the accuracy of individual tree mortality models, similar to those used in many of the current variants of the Forest Vegetation Simulator, using data from North Idaho and Montana. The first technique addresses methods to correct for bias induced by measurement error typically present in competition variables. The second implements survival regression and evaluates its performance against the traditional logistic regression approach. I selected the regression calibration (RC) algorithm as a good candidate for addressing the measurement error problem. Two logistic regression models for each species were fitted, one ignoring the measurement error, which is the “naïve” approach, and the other applying RC. The models fitted with RC outperformed the naïve models in terms of discrimination when the competition variable was found to be statistically significant. The effect of RC was more obvious where measurement error variance was large and for more shade-intolerant species. The process of model fitting and variable selection revealed that past emphasis on DBH as a predictor variable for mortality, while producing models with strong metrics of fit, may make models less generalizable. The evaluation of the error variance estimator developed by Stage and Wykoff (1998), and core to the implementation of RC, in different spatial patterns and diameter distributions, revealed that the Stage and Wykoff estimate notably overestimated the true variance in all simulated stands, but those that are clustered. Results show a systematic bias even when all the assumptions made by the authors are guaranteed. I argue that this is the result of the Poisson-based estimate ignoring the overlapping area of potential plots around a tree. Effects, especially in the application phase, of the variance estimate justify suggested future efforts of improving the accuracy of the variance estimate. The second technique implemented and evaluated is a survival regression model that accounts for the time dependent nature of variables, such as diameter and competition variables, and the interval-censored nature of data collected from remeasured plots. The performance of the model is compared with the traditional logistic regression model as a tool to predict individual tree mortality. Validation of both approaches shows that the survival regression approach discriminates better between dead and alive trees for all species. In conclusion, I showed that the proposed techniques do increase the accuracy of individual tree mortality models, and are a promising first step towards the next generation of background mortality models. I have also identified the next steps to undertake in order to advance mortality models further.

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Spacecraft formation flying navigation continues to receive a great deal of interest. The research presented in this dissertation focuses on developing methods for estimating spacecraft absolute and relative positions, assuming measurements of only relative positions using wireless sensors. The implementation of the extended Kalman filter to the spacecraft formation navigation problem results in high estimation errors and instabilities in state estimation at times. This is due tp the high nonlinearities in the system dynamic model. Several approaches are attempted in this dissertation aiming at increasing the estimation stability and improving the estimation accuracy. A differential geometric filter is implemented for spacecraft positions estimation. The differential geometric filter avoids the linearization step (which is always carried out in the extended Kalman filter) through a mathematical transformation that converts the nonlinear system into a linear system. A linear estimator is designed in the linear domain, and then transformed back to the physical domain. This approach demonstrated better estimation stability for spacecraft formation positions estimation, as detailed in this dissertation. The constrained Kalman filter is also implemented for spacecraft formation flying absolute positions estimation. The orbital motion of a spacecraft is characterized by two range extrema (perigee and apogee). At the extremum, the rate of change of a spacecraft’s range vanishes. This motion constraint can be used to improve the position estimation accuracy. The application of the constrained Kalman filter at only two points in the orbit causes filter instability. Two variables are introduced into the constrained Kalman filter to maintain the stability and improve the estimation accuracy. An extended Kalman filter is implemented as a benchmark for comparison with the constrained Kalman filter. Simulation results show that the constrained Kalman filter provides better estimation accuracy as compared with the extended Kalman filter. A Weighted Measurement Fusion Kalman Filter (WMFKF) is proposed in this dissertation. In wireless localizing sensors, a measurement error is proportional to the distance of the signal travels and sensor noise. In this proposed Weighted Measurement Fusion Kalman Filter, the signal traveling time delay is not modeled; however, each measurement is weighted based on the measured signal travel distance. The obtained estimation performance is compared to the standard Kalman filter in two scenarios. The first scenario assumes using a wireless local positioning system in a GPS denied environment. The second scenario assumes the availability of both the wireless local positioning system and GPS measurements. The simulation results show that the WMFKF has similar accuracy performance as the standard Kalman Filter (KF) in the GPS denied environment. However, the WMFKF maintains the position estimation error within its expected error boundary when the WLPS detection range limit is above 30km. In addition, the WMFKF has a better accuracy and stability performance when GPS is available. Also, the computational cost analysis shows that the WMFKF has less computational cost than the standard KF, and the WMFKF has higher ellipsoid error probable percentage than the standard Measurement Fusion method. A method to determine the relative attitudes between three spacecraft is developed. The method requires four direction measurements between the three spacecraft. The simulation results and covariance analysis show that the method’s error falls within a three sigma boundary without exhibiting any singularity issues. A study of the accuracy of the proposed method with respect to the shape of the spacecraft formation is also presented.

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All optical systems that operate in or through the atmosphere suffer from turbulence induced image blur. Both military and civilian surveillance, gun-sighting, and target identification systems are interested in terrestrial imaging over very long horizontal paths, but atmospheric turbulence can blur the resulting images beyond usefulness. My dissertation explores the performance of a multi-frame-blind-deconvolution technique applied under anisoplanatic conditions for both Gaussian and Poisson noise model assumptions. The technique is evaluated for use in reconstructing images of scenes corrupted by turbulence in long horizontal-path imaging scenarios and compared to other speckle imaging techniques. Performance is evaluated via the reconstruction of a common object from three sets of simulated turbulence degraded imagery representing low, moderate and severe turbulence conditions. Each set consisted of 1000 simulated, turbulence degraded images. The MSE performance of the estimator is evaluated as a function of the number of images, and the number of Zernike polynomial terms used to characterize the point spread function. I will compare the mean-square-error (MSE) performance of speckle imaging methods and a maximum-likelihood, multi-frame blind deconvolution (MFBD) method applied to long-path horizontal imaging scenarios. Both methods are used to reconstruct a scene from simulated imagery featuring anisoplanatic turbulence induced aberrations. This comparison is performed over three sets of 1000 simulated images each for low, moderate and severe turbulence-induced image degradation. The comparison shows that speckle-imaging techniques reduce the MSE 46 percent, 42 percent and 47 percent on average for low, moderate, and severe cases, respectively using 15 input frames under daytime conditions and moderate frame rates. Similarly, the MFBD method provides, 40 percent, 29 percent, and 36 percent improvements in MSE on average under the same conditions. The comparison is repeated under low light conditions (less than 100 photons per pixel) where improvements of 39 percent, 29 percent and 27 percent are available using speckle imaging methods and 25 input frames and 38 percent, 34 percent and 33 percent respectively for the MFBD method and 150 input frames. The MFBD estimator is applied to three sets of field data and the results presented. Finally, a combined Bispectrum-MFBD Hybrid estimator is proposed and investigated. This technique consistently provides a lower MSE and smaller variance in the estimate under all three simulated turbulence conditions.