Use of hydroclimatic forecasts for improved water management in central Texas

Accurate seasonal to interannual streamflow forecasts based on climate information are critical for optimal management and operation of water resources systems. Considering most water supply systems are multipurpose, operating these systems to meet increasing demand under the growing stresses of climate variability and climate change, population and economic growth, and environmental concerns could be very challenging. This study was to investigate improvement in water resources systems management through the use of seasonal climate forecasts. Hydrological persistence (streamflow and precipitation) and large-scale recurrent oceanic-atmospheric patterns such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Pacific North American (PNA), and customized sea surface temperature (SST) indices were investigated for their potential to improve streamflow forecast accuracy and increase forecast lead-time in a river basin in central Texas. First, an ordinal polytomous logistic regression approach is proposed as a means of incorporating multiple predictor variables into a probabilistic forecast model. Forecast performance is assessed through a cross-validation procedure, using distributions-oriented metrics, and implications for decision making are discussed. Results indicate that, of the predictors evaluated, only hydrologic persistence and Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature patterns associated with ENSO and PDO provide forecasts which are statistically better than climatology. Secondly, a class of data mining techniques, known as tree-structured models, is investigated to address the nonlinear dynamics of climate teleconnections and screen promising probabilistic streamflow forecast models for river-reservoir systems. Results show that the tree-structured models can effectively capture the nonlinear features hidden in the data. Skill scores of probabilistic forecasts generated by both classification trees and logistic regression trees indicate that seasonal inflows throughout the system can be predicted with sufficient accuracy to improve water management, especially in the winter and spring seasons in central Texas. Lastly, a simplified two-stage stochastic economic-optimization model was proposed to investigate improvement in water use efficiency and the potential value of using seasonal forecasts, under the assumption of optimal decision making under uncertainty. Model results demonstrate that incorporating the probabilistic inflow forecasts into the optimization model can provide a significant improvement in seasonal water contract benefits over climatology, with lower average deficits (increased reliability) for a given average contract amount, or improved mean contract benefits for a given level of reliability compared to climatology. The results also illustrate the trade-off between the expected contract amount and reliability, i.e., larger contracts can be signed at greater risk.

Perceptions of water conditions and management in the Sonora River Basin, Sonora, Mexico

The effects of climate change are expected to be very severe in arid regions. The Sonora River Basin, in the northwestern state of Sonora, Mexico, is likely to be severely affected. Some of the anticipated effects include precipitation variability, intense storm events, higher overall temperatures, and less available water. In addition, population in Sonora, specifically the capital city of Hermosillo, is increasing at a 1.5% rate and current populations are near 700,000. With the reduction in water availability and an increase in population, Sonora, Mexico is expected to experience severe water resource issues in the near future. In anticipation of these changes, research is being conducted in an attempt to improve water management in the Sonora River Basin, located in the northwestern part of Sonora. This research involves participatory modeling techniques designed to increase water manager awareness of hydrological models and their use as integrative tools for water resource management. This study was conducted as preliminary research for the participatory modeling grant in order to gather useful information on the population being studied. This thesis presents research from thirty-four in-depth interviews with water managers, citizens, and agricultural producers in Sonora, Mexico. Data was collected on perceptions of water quantity and quality in the basin, thoughts on current water management practices, perceptions of climate change and its management, experience with, knowledge of, and trust in hydrological models as water management tools. Results showed that the majority of interviewees thought there was not enough water to satisfy their daily needs. Most respondents also agreed that the water available was of good quality, but that current management of water resources was ineffective. Nearly all interviewees were aware of climate change and thought it to be anthropogenic. May reported experiencing higher temperatures, precipitation changes, and higher water scarcity and attributed those fluctuations to climate change. 65% of interviewees were at least somewhat familiar with hydrological models, though only 28% had ever used them or their output. Even with model usage results being low, 100% of respondents believed hydrological models to be very useful water management tools. Understanding how water, climate change, and hydrological models are perceived by this population of people is essential to improving their water management practices in the face of climate change.

Water transport in complex, non-wetting porous layers with applications to water management in low temperature fuel cells

An experimental setup was designed to visualize water percolation inside the porous transport layer, PTL, of proton exchange membrane, PEM, fuel cells and identify the relevant characterization parameters. In parallel with the observation of the water movement, the injection pressure (pressure required to transport water through the PTL) was measured. A new scaling for the drainage in porous media has been proposed based on the ratio between the input and the dissipated energies during percolation. A proportional dependency was obtained between the energy ratio and a non-dimensional time and this relationship is not dependent on the flow regime; stable displacement or capillary fingering. Experimental results show that for different PTL samples (from different manufacturers) the proportionality is different. The identification of this proportionality allows a unique characterization of PTLs with respect to water transport. This scaling has relevance in porous media flows ranging far beyond fuel cells. In parallel with the experimental analysis, a two-dimensional numerical model was developed in order to simulate the phenomena observed in the experiments. The stochastic nature of the pore size distribution, the role of the PTL wettability and morphology properties on the water transport were analyzed. The effect of a second porous layer placed between the porous transport layer and the catalyst layer called microporous layer, MPL, was also studied. It was found that the presence of the MPL significantly reduced the water content on the PTL by enhancing fingering formation. Moreover, the presence of small defects (cracks) within the MPL was shown to enhance water management. Finally, a corroboration of the numerical simulation was carried out. A threedimensional version of the network model was developed mimicking the experimental conditions. The morphology and wettability of the PTL are tuned to the experiment data by using the new energy scaling of drainage in porous media. Once the fit between numerical and experimental data is obtained, the computational PTL structure can be used in different types of simulations where the conditions are representative of the fuel cell operating conditions.

AGROFORESTRY ADDRESSING SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES IN PARAGUAY

Paraguay is characterized in part by an economy reliant on a massive soy industry and as facing social and economic challenges resulting from highly inequitable distribution of wealth and land ownership, particularly for smallholder farmers in the rural areas of the country. Yerba mate (Ilex paraguariensis), a native tree of which the leaves are used in tea, has become an increasingly common crop grown among common among smallholder farmers (owners of 10 hectares or less) as a viable alternative to soy production on a small scale. In the rural agricultural community of Libertad del Sur, located in the heart of the severely deforested Bosque Atlántico del Alto-Paraná, a series of development initiatives including tree nurseries and agroforestry projects with yerba mate were implemented with involvement of several governmental and nongovernmental organizations. Research was conducted to identify effectiveness of an agroforestry strategy to promote reforestation activities and sustainable agriculture to achieve economic and subsistence goals of the rural population. Despite a severe drought impacting initial research goals, important lessons are considered regarding promotion of development work within the community as well as community perceptions towards development agencies. Pursuit of compromise between community member and agency goals using sustainable agricultural practices is identified as an effective means to promote mutually beneficial development strategies.

IMPROVING FLOW DISTRIBUTION IN SMALL-SCALE WATER-SUPPLY SYSTEMS THROUGH THE USE OF FLOW-REDUCING DISCS AND METHODS FOR ANALYZING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF SOLAR POWERED PUMPING FOR A DRINKING WATER SUPPLY IN RURAL PANAMA

As continued global funding and coordination are allocated toward the improvement of access to safe sources of drinking water, alternative solutions may be necessary to expand implementation to remote communities. This report evaluates two technologies used in a small water distribution system in a mountainous region of Panama; solar powered pumping and flow-reducing discs. The two parts of the system function independently, but were both chosen for their ability to mitigate unique issues in the community. The design program NeatWork and flow-reducing discs were evaluated because they are tools taught to Peace Corps Volunteers in Panama. Even when ample water is available, mountainous terrains affect the pressure available throughout a water distribution system. Since the static head in the system only varies with the height of water in the tank, frictional losses from pipes and fittings must be exploited to balance out the inequalities caused by the uneven terrain. Reducing the maximum allowable flow to connections through the installation of flow-reducing discs can help to retain enough residual pressure in the main distribution lines to provide reliable service to all connections. NeatWork was calibrated to measured flow rates by changing the orifice coefficient (θ), resulting in a value of 0.68, which is 10-15% higher than typical values for manufactured flow-reducing discs. NeatWork was used to model various system configurations to determine if a single-sized flow-reducing disc could provide equitable flow rates throughout an entire system. There is a strong correlation between the optimum single-sized flow- reducing disc and the average elevation change throughout a water distribution system; the larger the elevation change across the system, the smaller the recommended uniform orifice size. Renewable energy can jump the infrastructure gap and provide basic services at a fraction of the cost and time required to install transmission lines. Methods for the assessment of solar powered pumping systems as a means for rural water supply are presented and assessed. It was determined that manufacturer provided product specifications can be used to appropriately design a solar pumping system, but care must be taken to ensure that sufficient water can be provided to the system despite variations in solar intensity.