FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT UNDER HISTORICAL AND PREDICTED LAND USE CHANGE USING CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC MODELING

Current procedures for flood risk estimation assume flood distributions are stationary over time, meaning annual maximum flood (AMF) series are not affected by climatic variation, land use/land cover (LULC) change, or management practices. Thus, changes in LULC and climate are generally not accounted for in policy and design related to flood risk/control, and historical flood events are deemed representative of future flood risk. These assumptions need to be re-evaluated, however, as climate change and anthropogenic activities have been observed to have large impacts on flood risk in many areas. In particular, understanding the effects of LULC change is essential to the study and understanding of global environmental change and the consequent hydrologic responses. The research presented herein provides possible causation for observed nonstationarity in AMF series with respect to changes in LULC, as well as a means to assess the degree to which future LULC change will impact flood risk. Four watersheds in the Midwest, Northeastern, and Central United States were studied to determine flood risk associated with historical and future projected LULC change. Historical single framed aerial images dating back to the mid-1950s were used along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing models (SPRING and ERDAS) to create historical land use maps. The Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land Use Change (FORE-SCE) model was applied to generate future LULC maps annually from 2006 to 2100 for the conterminous U.S. based on the four IPCC-SRES future emission scenario conditions. These land use maps were input into previously calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models for two case study watersheds. In order to isolate effects of LULC change, the only variable parameter was the Runoff Curve Number associated with the land use layer. All simulations were run with daily climate data from 1978-1999, consistent with the 'base' model which employed the 1992 NLCD to represent 'current' conditions. Output daily maximum flows were converted to instantaneous AMF series and were subsequently modeled using a Log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution to evaluate flood risk. Analysis of the progression of LULC change over the historic period and associated SWAT outputs revealed that AMF magnitudes tend to increase over time in response to increasing degrees of urbanization. This is consistent with positive trends in the AMF series identified in previous studies, although there are difficulties identifying correlations between LULC change and identified change points due to large time gaps in the generated historical LULC maps, mainly caused by unavailability of sufficient quality historic aerial imagery. Similarly, increases in the mean and median AMF magnitude were observed in response to future LULC change projections, with the tails of the distributions remaining reasonably constant. FORE-SCE scenario A2 was found to have the most dramatic impact on AMF series, consistent with more extreme projections of population growth, demands for growing energy sources, agricultural land, and urban expansion, while AMF outputs based on scenario B2 showed little changes for the future as the focus is on environmental conservation and regional solutions to environmental issues.

Assessing land use and land cover change in tropical dry forest or Northern Chinandega, Nicaragus from 1985 to 2011

The objective of this study is to gain a quantitative understanding of land use and land cover change (LULCC) that have occurred in a rural Nicaraguan municipality by analyzing Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) images. By comparing the potential extent of tropical dry forest (TDF) with Landsat 5 TM images, this study analyzes the loss of this forest type on a local level for the municipality of San Juan de Cinco Pinos (63.5 km2) in the Department of Chinandega. Change detection analysis shows where and how land use has changed from 1985 to the present. From 1985 to 2011, nearly 15% of the TDF in San Juan de Cinco Pinos was converted to other land uses. Of the 1434.2 ha of TDF that was present in 1985, 1223.64 ha remained in 2011. The deforestation is primarily a result of agricultural expansion and fuelwood extraction. If current rates of TDF deforestation continue, the municipality faces the prospect of losing its forest cover within the next few decades.

Land use/cover change using Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems : Pic Macaya National Park, Haiti

A post classification change detection technique based on a hybrid classification approach (unsupervised and supervised) was applied to Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat Enhanced Thematic Plus (ETM+), and ASTER images acquired in 1987, 2000 and 2004 respectively to map land use/cover changes in the Pic Macaya National Park in the southern region of Haiti. Each image was classified individually into six land use/cover classes: built-up, agriculture, herbaceous, open pine forest, mixed forest, and barren land using unsupervised ISODATA and maximum likelihood supervised classifiers with the aid of field collected ground truth data collected in the field. Ground truth information, collected in the field in December 2007, and including equalized stratified random points which were visual interpreted were used to assess the accuracy of the classification results. The overall accuracy of the land classification for each image was respectively: 1987 (82%), 2000 (82%), 2004 (87%). A post classification change detection technique was used to produce change images for 1987 to 2000, 1987 to 2004, and 2000 to 2004. It was found that significant changes in the land use/cover occurred over the 17- year period. The results showed increases in built up (from 10% to 17%) and herbaceous (from 5% to 14%) areas between 1987 and 2004. The increase of herbaceous was mostly caused by the abandonment of exhausted agriculture lands. At the same time, open pine forest and mixed forest areas lost (75%) and (83%) of their area to other land use/cover types. Open pine forest (from 20% to 14%) and mixed forest (from18 to 12%) were transformed into agriculture area or barren land. This study illustrated the continuing deforestation, land degradation and soil erosion in the region, which in turn is leading to decrease in vegetative cover. The study also showed the importance of Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) technologies to estimate timely changes in the land use/cover, and to evaluate their causes in order to design an ecological based management plan for the park.

Development of measurement and modeling techniques to quantify atmospheric deposition of persistent, bioaccumulative and toxic chemicals in the Great Lakes

Measurement and modeling techniques were developed to improve over-water gaseous air-water exchange measurements for persistent bioaccumulative and toxic chemicals (PBTs). Analytical methods were applied to atmospheric measurements of hexachlorobenzene (HCB), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs). Additionally, the sampling and analytical methods are well suited to study semivolatile organic compounds (SOCs) in air with applications related to secondary organic aerosol formation, urban, and indoor air quality. A novel gas-phase cleanup method is described for use with thermal desorption methods for analysis of atmospheric SOCs using multicapillary denuders. The cleanup selectively removed hydrogen-bonding chemicals from samples, including much of the background matrix of oxidized organic compounds in ambient air, and thereby improved precision and method detection limits for nonpolar analytes. A model is presented that predicts gas collection efficiency and particle collection artifact for SOCs in multicapillary denuders using polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) sorbent. An approach is presented to estimate the equilibrium PDMS-gas partition coefficient (Kpdms) from an Abraham solvation parameter model for any SOC. A high flow rate (300 L min-1) multicapillary denuder was designed for measurement of trace atmospheric SOCs. Overall method precision and detection limits were determined using field duplicates and compared to the conventional high-volume sampler method. The high-flow denuder is an alternative to high-volume or passive samplers when separation of gas and particle-associated SOCs upstream of a filter and short sample collection time are advantageous. A Lagrangian internal boundary layer transport exchange (IBLTE) Model is described. The model predicts the near-surface variation in several quantities with fetch in coastal, offshore flow: 1) modification in potential temperature and gas mixing ratio, 2) surface fluxes of sensible heat, water vapor, and trace gases using the NOAA COARE Bulk Algorithm and Gas Transfer Model, 3) vertical gradients in potential temperature and mixing ratio. The model was applied to interpret micrometeorological measurements of air-water exchange flux of HCB and several PCB congeners in Lake Superior. The IBLTE Model can be applied to any scalar, including water vapor, carbon dioxide, dimethyl sulfide, and other scalar quantities of interest with respect to hydrology, climate, and ecosystem science.

Locating American Indian Sciences : a report on the development, use, and analysis of a survey of perceptions

All students in the United States of America are required to take science. But what if there is not a science, but in fact a number of sciences? Could every culture, perhaps every different grouping of people, create its own science? This report describes a preliminary survey, the goal of which is to improve the teaching of science at American Indian Opportunities and Industrialization Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota by beginning to understand the differences between Western and American Indian sciences.

Applications of finite geometries to designs and codes

This dissertation concerns the intersection of three areas of discrete mathematics: finite geometries, design theory, and coding theory. The central theme is the power of finite geometry designs, which are constructed from the points and t-dimensional subspaces of a projective or affine geometry. We use these designs to construct and analyze combinatorial objects which inherit their best properties from these geometric structures. A central question in the study of finite geometry designs is Hamada’s conjecture, which proposes that finite geometry designs are the unique designs with minimum p-rank among all designs with the same parameters. In this dissertation, we will examine several questions related to Hamada’s conjecture, including the existence of counterexamples. We will also study the applicability of certain decoding methods to known counterexamples. We begin by constructing an infinite family of counterexamples to Hamada’s conjecture. These designs are the first infinite class of counterexamples for the affine case of Hamada’s conjecture. We further demonstrate how these designs, along with the projective polarity designs of Jungnickel and Tonchev, admit majority-logic decoding schemes. The codes obtained from these polarity designs attain error-correcting performance which is, in certain cases, equal to that of the finite geometry designs from which they are derived. This further demonstrates the highly geometric structure maintained by these designs. Finite geometries also help us construct several types of quantum error-correcting codes. We use relatives of finite geometry designs to construct infinite families of q-ary quantum stabilizer codes. We also construct entanglement-assisted quantum error-correcting codes (EAQECCs) which admit a particularly efficient and effective error-correcting scheme, while also providing the first general method for constructing these quantum codes with known parameters and desirable properties. Finite geometry designs are used to give exceptional examples of these codes.

Development of a high performance parallel computing platform and its use in the study of nanostructures : clusters, sheets and tubes .

Small clusters of gallium oxide, technologically important high temperature ceramic, together with interaction of nucleic acid bases with graphene and small-diameter carbon nanotube are focus of first principles calculations in this work. A high performance parallel computing platform is also developed to perform these calculations at Michigan Tech. First principles calculations are based on density functional theory employing either local density or gradient-corrected approximation together with plane wave and gaussian basis sets. The bulk Ga2O3 is known to be a very good candidate for fabricating electronic devices that operate at high temperatures. To explore the properties of Ga2O3 at nonoscale, we have performed a systematic theoretical study on the small polyatomic gallium oxide clusters. The calculated results find that all lowest energy isomers of GamOn clusters are dominated by the Ga-O bonds over the metal-metal or the oxygen-oxygen bonds. Analysis of atomic charges suggest the clusters to be highly ionic similar to the case of bulk Ga2O3. In the study of sequential oxidation of these slusters starting from Ga2O, it is found that the most stable isomers display up to four different backbones of constituent atoms. Furthermore, the predicted configuration of the ground state of Ga2O is recently confirmed by the experimental result of Neumark's group. Guided by the results of calculations the study of gallium oxide clusters, performance related challenge of computational simulations, of producing high performance computers/platforms, has been addressed. Several engineering aspects were thoroughly studied during the design, development and implementation of the high performance parallel computing platform, rama, at Michigan Tech. In an attempt to stay true to the principles of Beowulf revolutioni, the rama cluster was extensively customized to make it easy to understand, and use - for administrators as well as end-users. Following the results of benchmark calculations and to keep up with the complexity of systems under study, rama has been expanded to a total of sixty four processors. Interest in the non-covalent intereaction of DNA with carbon nanotubes has steadily increased during past several years. This hybrid system, at the junction of the biological regime and the nanomaterials world, possesses features which make it very attractive for a wide range of applicatioins. Using the in-house computational power available, we have studied details of the interaction between nucleic acid bases with graphene sheet as well as high-curvature small-diameter carbon nanotube. The calculated trend in the binding energies strongly suggests that the polarizability of the base molecules determines the interaction strength of the nucleic acid bases with graphene. When comparing the results obtained here for physisorption on the small diameter nanotube considered with those from the study on graphene, it is observed that the interaction strength of nucleic acid bases is smaller for the tube. Thus, these results show that the effect of introducing curvature is to reduce the binding energy. The binding energies for the two extreme cases of negligible curvature (i.e. flat graphene sheet) and of very high curvature (i.e. small diameter nanotube) may be considered as upper and lower bounds. This finding represents an important step towards a better understanding of experimentally observed sequence-dependent interaction of DNA with Carbon nanotubes.

RESPONSE OF ECTOMYCORRHIZAL FUNGI TO INORGANIC AND ORGANIC FORMS OF NITROGEN AND PHOSPHORUS

The nutrient uptake response of ectomycorrhizal fungi (ECM) to different nutrient substrates is a driving force in ecosystem nutrient cycling. We hypothesized that taxa from low nitrogen (N) soils would be more likely to use organic N compared to taxa from high N soils, and that taxa from high N would be more likely to use organic phosphorus (P) sources when compared to the ECM dominant in low N soils. This study focuses on the growth response of ECM species collected over a N gradient to different forms of N and P nutrient substrates and whether ECM growth in a particular nutrient source can be related to how the ECM fungi have responded to elevated N in the field. This study found a mixed ECM response to organic and inorganic N and P treatments. High affinity N taxa expected to respond positively to inorganic N produced the phosphatase enzyme to take up organic phosphorus, but not all low affinity N taxa expected to negatively respond to organic P produced the protease enzyme to take up organic N. Interspecific variability was displayed by some high and low affinity N taxa responded and ECM intraspecific variability in response to N and P treatments was also noted. Future analysis of may show more evident ECM response patterns to inorganic and organic forms of N and P.