Development of record-breaking statistics for climatological time-series analysis

The number of record-breaking events expected to occur in a strictly stationary time-series depends only on the number of values in the time-series, regardless of distribution. This holds whether the events are record-breaking highs or lows and whether we count from past to present or present to past. However, these symmetries are broken in distinct ways by trends in the mean and variance. We define indices that capture this information and use them to detect weak trends from multiple time-series. Here, we use these methods to answer the following questions: (1) Is there a variability trend among globally distributed surface temperature time-series? We find a significant decreasing variability over the past century for the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN). This corresponds to about a 10% change in the standard deviation of inter-annual monthly mean temperature distributions. (2) How are record-breaking high and low surface temperatures in the United States affected by time period? We investigate the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and find that the ratio of record-breaking highs to lows in 2006 increases as the time-series extend further into the past. When we consider the ratio as it evolves with respect to a fixed start year, we find it is strongly correlated with the ensemble mean. We also compare the ratios for USHCN and GHCN (minus USHCN stations). We find the ratios grow monotonically in the GHCN data set, but not in the USHCN data set. (3) Do we detect either mean or variance trends in annual precipitation within the United States? We find that the total annual and monthly precipitation in the United States (USHCN) has increased over the past century. Evidence for a trend in variance is inconclusive.

"Army of One" to "Army Strong" : visual media and U.S. Army recruitment during Bush"s "War on Terror"

From Bush’s September 20, 2001 “War on Terror” speech to Congress to President-Elect Barack Obama’s acceptance speech on November 4, 2008, the U.S. Army produced visual recruitment material that addressed the concerns of falling enlistment numbers—due to the prolonged and difficult war in Iraq—with quickly-evolving and compelling rhetorical appeals: from the introduction of an “Army of One” (2001) to “Army Strong” (2006); from messages focused on education and individual identity to high-energy adventure and simulated combat scenarios, distributed through everything from printed posters and music videos to first-person tactical-shooter video games. These highly polished, professional visual appeals introduced to the American public during a time of an unpopular war fought by volunteers provide rich subject matter for research and analysis. This dissertation takes a multidisciplinary approach to the visual media utilized as part of the Army’s recruitment efforts during the War on Terror, focusing on American myths—as defined by Barthes—and how these myths are both revealed and reinforced through design across media platforms. Placing each selection in its historical context, this dissertation analyzes how printed materials changed as the War on Terror continued. It examines the television ad that introduced “Army Strong” to the American public, considering how the combination of moving image, text, and music structure the message and the way we receive it. This dissertation also analyzes the video game America’s Army, focusing on how the interaction of the human player and the computer-generated player combine to enhance the persuasive qualities of the recruitment message. Each chapter discusses how the design of the particular medium facilitates engagement/interactivity of the viewer. The conclusion considers what recruitment material produced during this time period suggests about the persuasive strategies of different media and how they create distinct relationships with their spectators. It also addresses how theoretical frameworks and critical concepts used by a variety of disciplines can be combined to analyze recruitment media utilizing a Selber inspired three literacy framework (functional, critical, rhetorical) and how this framework can contribute to the multimodal classroom by allowing instructors and students to do a comparative analysis of multiple forms of visual media with similar content.

Effects of conifer sawdust, hardwood sawdust, and peat on soil properties and a barefoot conifer seedling development

Organic amendments are commonly used to improve tree nursery soil conditions for increased seedling growth. However, few studies compare organic amendments effects on soil conditions, and fewer compare subsequent effects on seedling growth. The effects of three organic amendments on soil properties and seedling growth were investigated at the USDA Forest Service J.W. Toumey Nursery in Watersmeet, MI. Pine sawdust (red pine, Pinus resinosa), hardwood sawdust (maple, Acer spp. and aspen, Populus spp.), and peat were individually incorporated into a loamy sand nursery soil in August, 2006, and soil properties were sampled periodically for the next 14 months. Jack (Pinus banksiana), red, and white pine (Pinus strobus) were sown into test plots in June, 2007 and sampled for growth responses at the end of the growing season. It is hypothesized; pine sawdust and peat can be used as a satisfactory soil amendment to improve soil conditions and produce high quality seedlings, when compared to hardwood sawdust in bareroot nursery soils. This study has the potential to reduce nursery costs while broadening soil amendment options. The addition of peat and pine sawdust increased soil organic matter above control soil conditions after 14 months. However, hardwood sawdust-amended soils did not differ from control soils after same time period. High N concentrations in peat increased total soil N over the other treatments. Similarly, the addition of peat increased soil matric potential and available water over all other treatments. Seedlings grew tallest with the largest stem diameter, and had the largest biomass in both control soil and soil amended with peat, compared to either sawdust treatment. Seedlings grown in peat-amended soils had higher N concentrations than those grown in soils treated with pine sawdust, though neither was different from seedlings grown in control or hardwood sawdust-amended soils. Overall, peat is a well suited organic soil amendment for the enhancement of soil properties, but no amendments were able to increase one-year seedling growth over control soils.

Paleomagnetic Study of the Portage Lake Volcanics exposed in the Quincy Mine

A detailed paleomagnetic and rock-magnetic investigation was conducted on thirty six basaltic flows of the ~1095 Ma Portage Lake Volcanics. The flows were sampled along the East Adit of the Quincy Mine (Hancock, MI). Thirty two flows yielded well-defined primary magnetization directions carried by magnetite. A secondary magnetization component carried by hematite was also found in twenty nine flows. After correction for serial correlation between the flows, nineteen independent mean directions were calculated. The corresponding paleomagnetic pole is located at 25.5 °N, 182.1 °W (A95 = 3.5°). The new pole overlaps with the pole from the ~1087 Ma Lake Shore Traps suggesting a standstill of the North American plate during that time period. The low angular dispersion of virtual geomagnetic poles (S = 7.9°) suggests that the flows were erupted within a short time period, or that the strength of geomagnetic secular variation was lower than that of the recent field.

SPRING DISCHARGE MONITORING IN LOW-RESOURCE SETTINGS: A CASE STUDY OF CONCEPCIÓN CHIQUIRICHAPA, GUATEMALA

Water springs are the principal source of water for many localities in Central America, including the municipality of Concepción Chiquirichapa in the Western Highlands of Guatemala. Long-term monitoring records are critical for informed water management as well as resource forecasting, though data are scarce and monitoring in low-resource settings presents special challenges. Spring discharge was monitored monthly in six municipal springs during the author’s Peace Corps assignment, from May 2011 to March 2012, and water level height was monitored in two spring boxes over the same time period using automated water-level loggers. The intention of this approach was to circumvent the need for frequent and time-intensive manual measurement by identifying a fixed relationship between discharge and water level. No such relationship was identified, but the water level record reveals that spring yield increased for four months following Tropical Depression 12E in October 2011. This suggests that the relationship between extreme precipitation events and long-term water spring yields in Concepción should be examined further. These limited discharge data also indicate that aquifer baseflow recession and catchment water balance could be successfully characterized if a long-term discharge record were established. This study also presents technical and social considerations for selecting a methodology for spring discharge measurement and highlights the importance of local interest in conducting successful community-based research in intercultural low-resource settings.

"Brethren upon the same level" : membership and class in Calumet's Masonic Lodge

The Keweenaw Peninsula of Upper Michigan was a ethnic conglomerate of cultures and ideas, with people attracted to the area by the mineral wealth found along the Copper Range. The center of copper mining from the mid 1860s to 1968 was in the vicinity of Calumet Township, home to the world-famous Calumet and Hecla Mining Company. The township depended on the mines and the company’s president Agassiz’s strove to make the area a “model community,” that included groups such as the Free and Accepted Masons. Men from myriad backgrounds arrived in Calumet from the British Isles, Germany, Finland, Eastern and Southern Europe and the Eastern United States. As in other communities from the time period these men formed common interest groups like Masonic Lodge 271, which received its charter in 1870. Gentlemen joined with merchants and craftsmen. They became “brethren upon the same level,” and were elevated to the status of Master Mason. This symbolic transformation within the Lodge removed the men from the “profane world” outside the sanctity of Masonry, and in the ritualistic transformation of the meeting they were reborn into Masonry’s sacred mysteries. Masonry acted as a means of moral guidance to men and gave them access to a larger social and economic community through a common connection of brotherhood. As the candidates moved through the three Blue Lodge degrees of Entered Apprentice, Fellowcraft, and Master Mason they saw each other as “brethren upon the same level” – all economic classes equal within the Masonic Lodge. To examine equality within Lodge 271, this study sorted workers into classes to allow a comparison of Lodge 271’s membership. Possibly a comparison between other lodges can be drawn from the membership. The Union Building in Calumet, MI will be examined for its role in the ritualistic transformation of Masonry as it housed Masonic activities and transformations. This transformation brought men into the lodge of brothers. While Masonry professed equality between members however, to what extent did the membership of the lodge reflect this between the brethren? To what extent did economic class determine who was made “brethren upon the same level? 1 Arthur Thurner, Calumet Copper and People: History of a Michigan Mining Community, 1864-1970 (Hancock, MI: Book Concern, 1974), 122.

A Surface Displacement Analysis for Volcan Pacaya from October 2001 through March 2013 by Means of 3-D Modeling of Precise Position GPS Data

Volcán Pacaya is one of three currently active volcanoes in Guatemala. Volcanic activity originates from the local tectonic subduction of the Cocos plate beneath the Caribbean plate along the Pacific Guatemalan coast. Pacaya is characterized by generally strombolian type activity with occasional larger vulcanian type eruptions approximately every ten years. One particularly large eruption occurred on May 27, 2010. Using GPS data collected for approximately 8 years before this eruption and data from an additional three years of collection afterwards, surface movement covering the period of the eruption can be measured and used as a tool to help understand activity at the volcano. Initial positions were obtained from raw data using the Automatic Precise Positioning Service provided by the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Forward modeling of observed 3-D displacements for three time periods (before, covering and after the May 2010 eruption) revealed that a plausible source for deformation is related to a vertical dike or planar surface trending NNW-SSE through the cone. For three distinct time periods the best fitting models describe deformation of the volcano: 0.45 right lateral movement and 0.55 m tensile opening along the dike mentioned above from October 2001 through January 2009 (pre-eruption); 0.55 m left lateral slip along the dike mentioned above for the period from January 2009 and January 2011 (covering the eruption); -0.025 m dip slip along the dike for the period from January 2011 through March 2013 (post-eruption). In all bestfit models the dike is oriented with a 75° westward dip. These data have respective RMS misfit values of 5.49 cm, 12.38 cm and 6.90 cm for each modeled period. During the time period that includes the eruption the volcano most likely experienced a combination of slip and inflation below the edifice which created a large scar at the surface down the northern flank of the volcano. All models that a dipping dike may be experiencing a combination of inflation and oblique slip below the edifice which augments the possibility of a westward collapse in the future.