SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING AS A QUANTITATIVE-QUALITATIVE FRAMEWORK FOR SUSTAINABLE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT: INSIGHTS FOR WATER QUALITY POLICY IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION

Early water resources modeling efforts were aimed mostly at representing hydrologic processes, but the need for interdisciplinary studies has led to increasing complexity and integration of environmental, social, and economic functions. The gradual shift from merely employing engineering-based simulation models to applying more holistic frameworks is an indicator of promising changes in the traditional paradigm for the application of water resources models, supporting more sustainable management decisions. This dissertation contributes to application of a quantitative-qualitative framework for sustainable water resources management using system dynamics simulation, as well as environmental systems analysis techniques to provide insights for water quality management in the Great Lakes basin. The traditional linear thinking paradigm lacks the mental and organizational framework for sustainable development trajectories, and may lead to quick-fix solutions that fail to address key drivers of water resources problems. To facilitate holistic analysis of water resources systems, systems thinking seeks to understand interactions among the subsystems. System dynamics provides a suitable framework for operationalizing systems thinking and its application to water resources problems by offering useful qualitative tools such as causal loop diagrams (CLD), stock-and-flow diagrams (SFD), and system archetypes. The approach provides a high-level quantitative-qualitative modeling framework for "big-picture" understanding of water resources systems, stakeholder participation, policy analysis, and strategic decision making. While quantitative modeling using extensive computer simulations and optimization is still very important and needed for policy screening, qualitative system dynamics models can improve understanding of general trends and the root causes of problems, and thus promote sustainable water resources decision making. Within the system dynamics framework, a growth and underinvestment (G&U) system archetype governing Lake Allegan's eutrophication problem was hypothesized to explain the system's problematic behavior and identify policy leverage points for mitigation. A system dynamics simulation model was developed to characterize the lake's recovery from its hypereutrophic state and assess a number of proposed total maximum daily load (TMDL) reduction policies, including phosphorus load reductions from point sources (PS) and non-point sources (NPS). It was shown that, for a TMDL plan to be effective, it should be considered a component of a continuous sustainability process, which considers the functionality of dynamic feedback relationships between socio-economic growth, land use change, and environmental conditions. Furthermore, a high-level simulation-optimization framework was developed to guide watershed scale BMP implementation in the Kalamazoo watershed. Agricultural BMPs should be given priority in the watershed in order to facilitate cost-efficient attainment of the Lake Allegan's TP concentration target. However, without adequate support policies, agricultural BMP implementation may adversely affect the agricultural producers. Results from a case study of the Maumee River basin show that coordinated BMP implementation across upstream and downstream watersheds can significantly improve cost efficiency of TP load abatement.

Multiscale constitutive modeling of polymer materials

Materials are inherently multi-scale in nature consisting of distinct characteristics at various length scales from atoms to bulk material. There are no widely accepted predictive multi-scale modeling techniques that span from atomic level to bulk relating the effects of the structure at the nanometer (10-9 meter) on macro-scale properties. Traditional engineering deals with treating matter as continuous with no internal structure. In contrast to engineers, physicists have dealt with matter in its discrete structure at small length scales to understand fundamental behavior of materials. Multiscale modeling is of great scientific and technical importance as it can aid in designing novel materials that will enable us to tailor properties specific to an application like multi-functional materials. Polymer nanocomposite materials have the potential to provide significant increases in mechanical properties relative to current polymers used for structural applications. The nanoscale reinforcements have the potential to increase the effective interface between the reinforcement and the matrix by orders of magnitude for a given reinforcement volume fraction as relative to traditional micro- or macro-scale reinforcements. To facilitate the development of polymer nanocomposite materials, constitutive relationships must be established that predict the bulk mechanical properties of the materials as a function of the molecular structure. A computational hierarchical multiscale modeling technique is developed to study the bulk-level constitutive behavior of polymeric materials as a function of its molecular chemistry. Various parameters and modeling techniques from computational chemistry to continuum mechanics are utilized for the current modeling method. The cause and effect relationship of the parameters are studied to establish an efficient modeling framework. The proposed methodology is applied to three different polymers and validated using experimental data available in literature.

Study of particle movement in the nearshore region of Lake Superior with radioisotope tracers

Biogeochemical processes in the coastal region, including the coastal area of the Great Lakes, are of great importance due to the complex physical, chemical and biological characteristics that differ from those on either the adjoining land or open water systems. Particle-reactive radioisotopes, both naturally occurring (210Pb, 210Po and 7Be) and man-made (137Cs), have proven to be useful tracers for these processes in many systems. However, a systematic isotope study on the northwest coast of the Keweenaw Peninsula in Lake Superior has not yet been performed. In this dissertation research, field sampling, laboratory measurements and numerical modeling were conducted to understand the biogeochemistry of the radioisotope tracers and some particulate-related coastal processes. In the first part of the dissertation, radioisotope activities of 210Po and 210Pb in a variability of samples (dissolved, suspended particle, sediment trap materials, surficial sediment) were measured. A completed picture of the distribution and disequilibrium of this pair of isotopes was drawn. The application of a simple box model utilizing these field observations reveals short isotope residence times in the water column and a significant contribution of sediment resuspension (for both particles and isotopes). The results imply a highly dynamic coastal region. In the second part of this dissertation, this conclusion is examined further. Based on intensive sediment coring, the spatial distribution of isotope inventories (mainly 210Pb, 137Cs and 7Be) in the nearshore region was determined. Isotope-based focusing factors categorized most of the sampling sites as non- or temporary depositional zones. A twodimensional steady-state box-in-series model was developed and applied to individual transects with the 210Pb inventories as model input. The modeling framework included both water column and upper sediments down to the depth of unsupported 210Pb penetration. The model was used to predict isotope residence times and cross-margin fluxes of sediments and isotopes at different locations along each transect. The time scale for sediment focusing from the nearshore to offshore regions of the transect was on the order of 10 years. The possibility of sediment longshore movement was indicated by high inventory ratios of 137Cs: 210Pb. Local deposition of fine particles, including fresh organic carbon, may explain the observed distribution of benthic organisms such as Diporeia. In the last part of this dissertation, isotope tracers, 210Pb and 210Po, were coupled into a hydrodynamic model for Lake Superior. The model was modified from an existing 2-D finite difference physical-biological model which has previously been successfully applied on Lake Superior. Using the field results from part one of this dissertation as initial conditions, the model was used to predict the isotope distribution in the water column; reasonable results were achieved. The modeling experiments demonstrated the potential for using a hydrodynamic model to study radioisotope biogeochemistry in the lake, although further refinements are necessary.

Modeling mechanical response of heterogeneous materials

Heterogeneous materials are ubiquitous in nature and as synthetic materials. These materials provide unique combination of desirable mechanical properties emerging from its heterogeneities at different length scales. Future structural and technological applications will require the development of advanced light weight materials with superior strength and toughness. Cost effective design of the advanced high performance synthetic materials by tailoring their microstructure is the challenge facing the materials design community. Prior knowledge of structure-property relationships for these materials is imperative for optimal design. Thus, understanding such relationships for heterogeneous materials is of primary interest. Furthermore, computational burden is becoming critical concern in several areas of heterogeneous materials design. Therefore, computationally efficient and accurate predictive tools are highly essential. In the present study, we mainly focus on mechanical behavior of soft cellular materials and tough biological material such as mussel byssus thread. Cellular materials exhibit microstructural heterogeneity by interconnected network of same material phase. However, mussel byssus thread comprises of two distinct material phases. A robust numerical framework is developed to investigate the micromechanisms behind the macroscopic response of both of these materials. Using this framework, effect of microstuctural parameters has been addressed on the stress state of cellular specimens during split Hopkinson pressure bar test. A voronoi tessellation based algorithm has been developed to simulate the cellular microstructure. Micromechanisms (microinertia, microbuckling and microbending) governing macroscopic behavior of cellular solids are investigated thoroughly with respect to various microstructural and loading parameters. To understand the origin of high toughness of mussel byssus thread, a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based optimization framework has been developed. It is found that two different material phases (collagens) of mussel byssus thread are optimally distributed along the thread. These applications demonstrate that the presence of heterogeneity in the system demands high computational resources for simulation and modeling. Thus, Higher Dimensional Model Representation (HDMR) based surrogate modeling concept has been proposed to reduce computational complexity. The applicability of such methodology has been demonstrated in failure envelope construction and in multiscale finite element techniques. It is observed that surrogate based model can capture the behavior of complex material systems with sufficient accuracy. The computational algorithms presented in this thesis will further pave the way for accurate prediction of macroscopic deformation behavior of various class of advanced materials from their measurable microstructural features at a reasonable computational cost.

DIFFUSE-INTERFACE FIELD APPROACH TO MODELING SELF-ASSEMBLY OF HETEROGENEOUS COLLOIDAL SYSTEMS AND RELATED DIPOLE-DIPOLE INTERACTION PHENOMENA

Colloid self-assembly under external control is a new route to fabrication of advanced materials with novel microstructures and appealing functionalities. The kinetic processes of colloidal self-assembly have attracted great interests also because they are similar to many atomic level kinetic processes of materials. In the past decades, rapid technological progresses have been achieved on producing shape-anisotropic, patchy, core-shell structured particles and particles with electric/magnetic charges/dipoles, which greatly enriched the self-assembled structures. Multi-phase carrier liquids offer new route to controlling colloidal self-assembly. Therefore, heterogeneity is the essential characteristics of colloid system, while so far there still lacks a model that is able to efficiently incorporate these possible heterogeneities. This thesis is mainly devoted to development of a model and computational study on the complex colloid system through a diffuse-interface field approach (DIFA), recently developed by Wang et al. This meso-scale model is able to describe arbitrary particle shape and arbitrary charge/dipole distribution on the surface or body of particles. Within the framework of DIFA, a Gibbs-Duhem-type formula is introduced to treat Laplace pressure in multi-liquid-phase colloidal system and it obeys Young-Laplace equation. The model is thus capable to quantitatively study important capillarity related phenomena. Extensive computer simulations are performed to study the fundamental behavior of heterogeneous colloidal system. The role of Laplace pressure is revealed in determining the mechanical equilibrium of shape-anisotropic particles at fluid interfaces. In particular, it is found that the Laplace pressure plays a critical role in maintaining the stability of capillary bridges between close particles, which sheds light on a novel route to in situ firming compact but fragile colloidal microstructures via capillary bridges. Simulation results also show that competition between like-charge repulsion, dipole-dipole interaction and Brownian motion dictates the degree of aggregation of heterogeneously charged particles. Assembly and alignment of particles with magnetic dipoles under external field is studied. Finally, extended studies on the role of dipole-dipole interaction are performed for ferromagnetic and ferroelectric domain phenomena. The results reveal that the internal field generated by dipoles competes with external field to determine the dipole-domain evolution in ferroic materials.