Automation of shear-wave splitting parameter determination of local earthquakes at Yellowstone : application as indicator of crustal stress and temporal variation

Shear-wave splitting can be a useful technique for determining crustal stress fields in volcanic settings and temporal variations associated with activity. Splitting parameters were determined for a subset of local earthquakes recorded from 2000-2010 at Yellowstone. Analysis was automated using an unsupervised cluster analysis technique to determine optimum splitting parameters from 270 analysis windows for each event. Six stations clearly exhibit preferential fast polarization values sub-orthogonal to the direction of minimum horizontal compression. Yellowstone deformation results in a local crustal stress field differing from the regional field dominated by NE-SW extension, and fast directions reflect this difference rotating around the caldera maintaining perpendicularity to the rim. One station exhibits temporal variations concordant with identified periods of caldera subsidence and uplift. From splitting measurements, we calculated a crustal anisotropy of ~17-23% and crack density ~0.12-0.17 possibly resulting from stress-aligned fluid filled microcracks in the upper crust and an active hydrothermal system.

Triggering of volcanic activity by large earthquakes

Statistical analyses of temporal relationships between large earthquakes and volcanic eruptions suggest seismic waves may trigger eruptions even over great (>1000 km) distances, although the causative mechanism is not well constrained. In this study the relationship between large earthquakes and subtle changes in volcanic activity was investigated in order to gain greater insight into the relationship between dynamic stresses propagated by surface waves and volcanic response. Daily measurements from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), onboard the Aura satellite, provide constraints on volcanic sulfur-dioxide (SO2) emission rates as a measure of subtle changes in activity. Time series of SO2 emission rates were produced from OMI data for thirteen persistently active volcanoes from 1 October 2004 to 30 September 2010. In order to quantify the affect of earthquakes at teleseismic distances, we modeled surface-wave amplitudes from the source mechanisms of moment magnitude (Mw) ≥7 earthquakes, and calculated the Peak Dynamic Stress (PDS). We assessed the influence of earthquakes on volcanic activity in two ways: 1) by identifying increases in the SO2 time series data and looking for causative earthquakes and 2) by examining the average emission rate before and after each earthquake. In the first, the SO2 time series for each volcano was used to calculate a baseline threshold for comparison with post-earthquake emission. Next, we generated a catalog of responses based on sustained SO2 emission increases above this baseline. Delay times between each SO2 response and each prior earthquake were analyzed using both the actual earthquake catalog, and a randomly generated catalog of earthquakes. This process was repeated for each volcano. Despite varying multiple parameters, this analysis did not demonstrate a clear relationship between earthquake-generated PDS and SO2 emission. However, the second analysis, which was based on the occurrence of large earthquakes indicated a response at most volcanoes. Using the PDS calculations as a filtering criterion for the earthquake catalog, the SO2 mass for each volcano was analyzed in 28-day windows centered on the earthquake origin time. If the average SO2 mass after the earthquake was greater than an arbitrary percentage of pre-earthquake mass, we identified the volcano as having a response to the event. This window analysis provided insight on what type of volcanic activity is more susceptible to triggering by dynamic stress. The volcanoes with very open systems included in this study, Ambrym, Gaua, Villarrica, Erta Ale and, Turrialba, showed a clear response to dynamic stress while the volcanoes with more closed systems, Merapi, Semeru, Fuego, Pacaya, and Bagana, showed no response.

Review of assessment, design, and mitigation of multiple hazards

Large parts of the world are subjected to one or more natural hazards, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, tropical storms (hurricanes, cyclones and typhoons), costal inundation and flooding. Virtually the entire world is at risk of man-made hazards. In recent decades, rapid population growth and economic development in hazard-prone areas have greatly increased the potential of multiple hazards to cause damage and destruction of buildings, bridges, power plants, and other infrastructure; thus posing a grave danger to the community and disruption of economic and societal activities. Although an individual hazard is significant in many parts of the United States (U.S.), in certain areas more than one hazard may pose a threat to the constructed environment. In such areas, structural design and construction practices should address multiple hazards in an integrated manner to achieve structural performance that is consistent with owner expectations and general societal objectives. The growing interest and importance of multiple-hazard engineering has been recognized recently. This has spurred the evolution of multiple-hazard risk-assessment frameworks and development of design approaches which have paved way for future research towards sustainable construction of new and improved structures and retrofitting of the existing structures. This report provides a review of literature and the current state of practice for assessment, design and mitigation of the impact of multiple hazards on structural infrastructure. It also presents an overview of future research needs related to multiple-hazard performance of constructed facilities.

Risk analysis of light-frame wood construction due to multiple hazards

Light-frame wood buildings are widely built in the United States (U.S.). Natural hazards cause huge losses to light-frame wood construction. This study proposes methodologies and a framework to evaluate the performance and risk of light-frame wood construction. Performance-based engineering (PBE) aims to ensure that a building achieves the desired performance objectives when subjected to hazard loads. In this study, the collapse risk of a typical one-story light-frame wood building is determined using the Incremental Dynamic Analysis method. The collapse risks of buildings at four sites in the Eastern, Western, and Central regions of U.S. are evaluated. Various sources of uncertainties are considered in the collapse risk assessment so that the influence of uncertainties on the collapse risk of lightframe wood construction is evaluated. The collapse risks of the same building subjected to maximum considered earthquakes at different seismic zones are found to be non-uniform. In certain areas in the U.S., the snow accumulation is significant and causes huge economic losses and threatens life safety. Limited study has been performed to investigate the snow hazard when combined with a seismic hazard. A Filtered Poisson Process (FPP) model is developed in this study, overcoming the shortcomings of the typically used Bernoulli model. The FPP model is validated by comparing the simulation results to weather records obtained from the National Climatic Data Center. The FPP model is applied in the proposed framework to assess the risk of a light-frame wood building subjected to combined snow and earthquake loads. The snow accumulation has a significant influence on the seismic losses of the building. The Bernoulli snow model underestimates the seismic loss of buildings in areas with snow accumulation. An object-oriented framework is proposed in this study to performrisk assessment for lightframe wood construction. For home owners and stake holders, risks in terms of economic losses is much easier to understand than engineering parameters (e.g., inter story drift). The proposed framework is used in two applications. One is to assess the loss of the building subjected to mainshock-aftershock sequences. Aftershock and downtime costs are found to be important factors in the assessment of seismic losses. The framework is also applied to a wood building in the state of Washington to assess the loss of the building subjected to combined earthquake and snow loads. The proposed framework is proven to be an appropriate tool for risk assessment of buildings subjected to multiple hazards. Limitations and future works are also identified.

Evaluating stress patterns for Plio-Quaternary brittle deformation along the Calama-Olacapato-El Toro fault zone, Central Andes

Understanding the geometry and kinematics of the major structures of an orogen is important to elucidate its style of deformation, as well as its tectonic evolution. We describe the temporal and spatial changes in the state of stress of the trans-orogen area of the Calama-Olacapato-El Toro (COT) Fault Zone in the Central Andes, at about 24°S within the northern portion of the Puna Plateau between the Argentina-Chile border. The importance of the COT derives principally from the Quaternary-Holocene activity recognized on some segments, which may shed new light on its possible control on Quaternary volcanism and on the seismic hazard evaluation of the area. Field geological surveys along with kinematic analysis and numerical inversion of ∼140 new fault-slip measurements have revealed that this portion of the COT zone, previously considered a continuous, long-lived lineament, in reality has been subjected to three different kinematic regimes: 1) a Miocene transpressional phase with the maximum principal stress (σ1) chiefly trending NNE-SSW; 2) an extensional phase that started by 9 Ma, with a horizontal NW-SE-striking minimum principal stress (σ3) – permutations between σ2 and σ3 axes have been recognized at two sites – and 3) a left-lateral strike-slip phase with a horizontal ∼E-W &sigma1 and ∼N-S σ3 dating to the Late Pliocene-Quaternary. Spatially, in the Quaternary, the left-lateral component decreases toward the westernmost tip of the COT, where it transitions to extension; this produced to a N-S horst and graben structure. Hence, even if transcurrence is still active in the eastern portion of the COT, as focal mechanisms of crustal earthquakes indicate, our study demonstrates that extension is becoming the predominant structural style of deformation, at least in the western region. These major temporal and spatial changes in the tectonic regimes are attributed in part to changes in the magnitude of the boundary forces due to subduction processes. The overall orogen-perpendicular extension might be the result of vertical stress larger than both the horizontal stresses induced by gravitational effect of a thickened crust.

Seismic Serviceability Assessment of Water Distribution Systems

Water distribution systems are important for life saving facilities especially in the recovery after earthquakes. In this paper, a framework is discussed about seismic serviceability of water systems that includes the fragility evaluation of water sources of water distribution networks. Also, a case study is brought about the performance of a water system under different levels of seismic hazard. The seismic serviceability of a water supply system provided by EPANET is evaluated under various levels of seismic hazard. Basically, the assessment process is based on hydraulic analysis and Monte Carlo simulations, implemented with empirical fragility data provided by the American Lifeline Alliance (ALA, 2001) for both pipelines and water facilities. Represented by the Seismic Serviceability Index (Cornell University, 2008), the serviceability of the water distribution system is evaluated under each level of earthquakes with return periods of 72 years, 475 years, and 2475 years. The system serviceability under levels of earthquake hazard are compared with and without considering the seismic fragility of the water source. The results show that the seismic serviceability of the water system decreases with the growing of the return period of seismic hazard, and after considering the seismic fragility of the water source, the seismic serviceability decreases. The results reveal the importance of considering the seismic fragility of water sources, and the growing dependence of the system performance of water system on the seismic resilience of water source under severe earthquakes.

STATIC AND DYNAMIC STRESS CHANGE AT 27 VOLCANOES OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN VOLCANIC ARC AFTER THE MW. 7.6 COSTA RICA EARTHQUAKE OF 5 SEPTEMBER 2012

Large earthquakes may strongly influence the activity of volcanoes through static and dynamic processes. In this study, we quantify the static and dynamic stress change on 27 volcanoes in Central America, after the Mw 7.6 Costa Rica earthquake of 5 September 2012. Following this event, 8 volcanoes showed signs of activity. We calculated the static stress change due to the earthquake on hypothetical faults under these volcanoes with Coulomb 3.3. For the dynamic stress change, we computed synthetic seismograms to simulate the waveforms at these volcanoes. We then calculated the Peak Dynamic Stress (PDS) from the modeled peak ground velocities. The resulting values are from moderate to minor changes in stress (10-1-10-2 MPa) with the PDS values generally an order of magnitude larger than the static stress change. Although these values are small, they may be enough to trigger a response by the volcanoes, and are on the order of stress changes implicated in many other studies of volcano and earthquake triggering by large earthquakes. This study provides insight into the poorly-constrained mechanism for remote triggering.

STABILITY ANALYSIS AND HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF SAN VICENTE VOLCANO IN CENTRAL EL SALVADOR

Geologic hazards affect the lives of millions of people worldwide every year. El Salvador is a country that is regularly affected by natural disasters, including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and tropical storms. Additionally, rainfall-induced landslides and debris flows are a major threat to the livelihood of thousands. The San Vicente Volcano in central El Salvador has a recurring and destructive pattern of landslides and debris flows occurring on the northern slopes of the volcano. In recent memory there have been at least seven major destructive debris flows on San Vicente volcano. Despite this problem, there has been no known attempt to study the inherent stability of these volcanic slopes and to determine the thresholds of rainfall that might lead to slope instability. This thesis explores this issue and outlines a suggested method for predicting the likelihood of slope instability during intense rainfall events. The material properties obtained from a field campaign and laboratory testing were used for a 2-D slope stability analysis on a recent landslide on San Vicente volcano. This analysis confirmed that the surface materials of the volcano are highly permeable and have very low shear strength and provided insight into the groundwater table behavior during a rainstorm. The biggest factors on the stability of the slopes were found to be slope geometry, rainfall totals and initial groundwater table location. Using the results from this analysis a stability chart was created that took into account these main factors and provided an estimate of the stability of a slope in various rainfall scenarios. This chart could be used by local authorities in the event of a known extreme rainfall event to help make decisions regarding possible evacuation. Recommendations are given to improve the methodology for future application in other areas as well as in central El Salvador.