Critical evaluation of diameter increment modelling in the Great Lakes region

Simulations of forest stand dynamics in a modelling framework including Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) are diameter driven, thus the diameter or basal area increment model needs a special attention. This dissertation critically evaluates diameter or basal area increment models and modelling approaches in the context of the Great Lakes region of the United States and Canada. A set of related studies are presented that critically evaluate the sub-model for change in individual tree basal diameter used in the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS), a dominant forestry model in the Great Lakes region. Various historical implementations of the STEMS (Stand and Tree Evaluation and Modeling System) family of diameter increment models, including the current public release of the Lake States variant of FVS (LS-FVS), were tested for the 30 most common tree species using data from the Michigan Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program. The results showed that current public release of the LS-FVS diameter increment model over-predicts 10-year diameter increment by 17% on average. Also the study affirms that a simple adjustment factor as a function of a single predictor, dbh (diameter at breast height) used in the past versions, provides an inadequate correction of model prediction bias. In order to re-engineer the basal diameter increment model, the historical, conceptual and philosophical differences among the individual tree increment model families and their modelling approaches were analyzed and discussed. Two underlying conceptual approaches toward diameter or basal area increment modelling have been often used: the potential-modifier (POTMOD) and composite (COMP) approaches, which are exemplified by the STEMS/TWIGS and Prognosis models, respectively. It is argued that both approaches essentially use a similar base function and neither is conceptually different from a biological perspective, even though they look different in their model forms. No matter what modelling approach is used, the base function is the foundation of an increment model. Two base functions – gamma and Box-Lucas – were identified as candidate base functions for forestry applications. The results of a comparative analysis of empirical fits showed that quality of fit is essentially similar, and both are sufficiently detailed and flexible for forestry applications. The choice of either base function in order to model diameter or basal area increment is dependent upon personal preference; however, the gamma base function may be preferred over the Box-Lucas, as it fits the periodic increment data in both a linear and nonlinear composite model form. Finally, the utility of site index as a predictor variable has been criticized, as it has been widely used in models for complex, mixed species forest stands though not well suited for this purpose. An alternative to site index in an increment model was explored, using site index and a combination of climate variables and Forest Ecosystem Classification (FEC) ecosites and data from the Province of Ontario, Canada. The results showed that a combination of climate and FEC ecosites variables can replace site index in the diameter increment model.

Performance evaluation of VIP latrines in the Upper West Region of Ghana

The prevalence of Ventilated Improved Pit (VIP) latrines in Ghana suggests that the design must have a high user acceptance. The two key factors attributed to user acceptance of a VIP latrine over an alternative latrine design, such as the basic pit latrine, are its ability to remove foul odors and maintain low fly populations; both of which are a direct result of an adequate ventilation flow rate. Adequate ventilation for odorless conditions in a VIP latrine has been defined by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and the World Bank, as an air flow rate equivalent to 6 air changes per hour (6 ACH) of the superstructure’s air volume. Additionally, the UNDP determined that the three primary factors that affect ventilation are: 1) wind passing over the mouth of the vent pipe, 2) wind passing into the superstructure, and 3) solar radiation on to the vent pipe. Previous studies also indicate that vent pipes with larger diameters increase flow rates, and the application of carbonaceous materials to the pit sludge reduces odor and insect prevalence. Furthermore, proper design and construction is critical for the correct functioning of VIP latrines. Under-designing could cause problems with odor and insect control; over-designing would increase costs unnecessarily, thereby making it potentially unaffordable for benefactors to independently construct, repair or replace a VIP latrine. The present study evaluated the design of VIP latrines used by rural communities in the Upper West Region of Ghana with the focus of assessing adequate ventilation for odor removal and insect control. Thirty VIP latrines from six communities in the Upper West Region of Ghana were sampled. Each VIP latrine’s ventilation flow rate and micro-environment was measured using a hot-wire anemometer probe and portable weather station for a minimum of four hours. To capture any temporal or seasonal variations in ventilation, ten of the latrines were sampled monthly over the course of three months for a minimum of 12 hours. A latrine usage survey and a cost analysis were also conducted to further assess the VIP latrine as an appropriated technology for sustainable development in the Upper West Region. It was found that the average air flow rate over the entire sample set was 11.3 m3/hr. The minimum and maximum air flow rates were 0.0 m3/hr and 48.0 m3/hr respectively. Only 1 of the 30 VIP latrines (3%) was found to have an air flow rate greater than the UNDP-defined odorless condition of 6 ACH. Furthermore, 19 VIP latrines (63%) were found to have an average air flow rate of less than half the flow rate required to achieve 6 ACH. The dominant factors affecting ventilation flow rate were wind passing over the mouth of the vent pipe and air buoyancy forces, which were the effect of differences in temperature between the substructure and the ambient environment. Of 76 usable VIP latrines found in one community, 68.4% were in actual use. The cost of a VIP latrine was found to be equivalent to approximately 12% of the mean annual household income for Upper West Region inhabitants.

Study of particle movement in the nearshore region of Lake Superior with radioisotope tracers

Biogeochemical processes in the coastal region, including the coastal area of the Great Lakes, are of great importance due to the complex physical, chemical and biological characteristics that differ from those on either the adjoining land or open water systems. Particle-reactive radioisotopes, both naturally occurring (210Pb, 210Po and 7Be) and man-made (137Cs), have proven to be useful tracers for these processes in many systems. However, a systematic isotope study on the northwest coast of the Keweenaw Peninsula in Lake Superior has not yet been performed. In this dissertation research, field sampling, laboratory measurements and numerical modeling were conducted to understand the biogeochemistry of the radioisotope tracers and some particulate-related coastal processes. In the first part of the dissertation, radioisotope activities of 210Po and 210Pb in a variability of samples (dissolved, suspended particle, sediment trap materials, surficial sediment) were measured. A completed picture of the distribution and disequilibrium of this pair of isotopes was drawn. The application of a simple box model utilizing these field observations reveals short isotope residence times in the water column and a significant contribution of sediment resuspension (for both particles and isotopes). The results imply a highly dynamic coastal region. In the second part of this dissertation, this conclusion is examined further. Based on intensive sediment coring, the spatial distribution of isotope inventories (mainly 210Pb, 137Cs and 7Be) in the nearshore region was determined. Isotope-based focusing factors categorized most of the sampling sites as non- or temporary depositional zones. A twodimensional steady-state box-in-series model was developed and applied to individual transects with the 210Pb inventories as model input. The modeling framework included both water column and upper sediments down to the depth of unsupported 210Pb penetration. The model was used to predict isotope residence times and cross-margin fluxes of sediments and isotopes at different locations along each transect. The time scale for sediment focusing from the nearshore to offshore regions of the transect was on the order of 10 years. The possibility of sediment longshore movement was indicated by high inventory ratios of 137Cs: 210Pb. Local deposition of fine particles, including fresh organic carbon, may explain the observed distribution of benthic organisms such as Diporeia. In the last part of this dissertation, isotope tracers, 210Pb and 210Po, were coupled into a hydrodynamic model for Lake Superior. The model was modified from an existing 2-D finite difference physical-biological model which has previously been successfully applied on Lake Superior. Using the field results from part one of this dissertation as initial conditions, the model was used to predict the isotope distribution in the water column; reasonable results were achieved. The modeling experiments demonstrated the potential for using a hydrodynamic model to study radioisotope biogeochemistry in the lake, although further refinements are necessary.