Detection and landing behavior of emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis, at low population density

The exotic emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), was first discovered in North America in southeastern Michigan, USA, and Windsor, Ontario, Canada in 2002. Significant ash (Fraxinus spp.) mortality has been caused in areas where this insect has become well established, and new infestations continue to be discovered in several states in the United States and in Canada. This beetle is difficult to detect when it invades new areas or occurs at low density. Girdled trap tree and ground surveys have been important tools for detecting emerald ash borer populations, and more recently, purple baited prism traps have been used in detection efforts. Girdled trap trees were found to be more effective than purple prism traps at detecting emerald ash borer as they acted as sinks for larvae in an area of known low density emerald ash borer infestation. The canopy condition of the trap trees was not predictive of whether they were infested or not, indicating that ground surveys may not be effective for detection in an area of low density emerald ash borer population. When landing rates of low density emerald ash borer populations were monitored on non-girdled ash trees, landing rates were higher on larger, open grown trees with canopies that contain a few dead branches. As a result of these studies, we suggest that the threshold for emerald ash borer detection using baited purple prism traps hung at the canopy base of trees is higher than for girdled trap trees. In addition, detection of developing populations of EAB may be possible by selectively placing sticky trapping surfaces on non-girdled trap trees that are the larger and more open grown trees at a site.

Geophysical and geological analysis of the Collingwood Member of the Trenton Formation

The Collingwood Member is a mid to late Ordovician self-sourced reservoir deposited across the northern Michigan Basin and parts of Ontario, Canada. Although it had been previously studied in Canada, there has been relatively little data available from the Michigan subsurface. Recent commercial interest in the Collingwood has resulted in the drilling and production of several wells in the state of Michigan. An analysis of core samples, measured laboratory data, and petrophysical logs has yielded both a quantitative and qualitative understanding of the formation in the Michigan Basin. The Collingwood is a low permeability and low porosity carbonate package that is very high in organic content. It is composed primarily of a uniformly fine grained carbonate matrix with lesser amounts of kerogen, silica, and clays. The kerogen content of the Collingwood is finely dispersed in the clay and carbonate mineral phases. Geochemical and production data show that both oil and gas phases are present based on regional thermal maturity. The deposit is richest in the north-central part of the basin with thickest deposition and highest organic content. The Collingwood is a fairly thin deposit and vertical fractures may very easily extend into the surrounding formations. Completion and treatment techniques should be designed around these parameters to enhance production.

Critical evaluation of diameter increment modelling in the Great Lakes region

Simulations of forest stand dynamics in a modelling framework including Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) are diameter driven, thus the diameter or basal area increment model needs a special attention. This dissertation critically evaluates diameter or basal area increment models and modelling approaches in the context of the Great Lakes region of the United States and Canada. A set of related studies are presented that critically evaluate the sub-model for change in individual tree basal diameter used in the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS), a dominant forestry model in the Great Lakes region. Various historical implementations of the STEMS (Stand and Tree Evaluation and Modeling System) family of diameter increment models, including the current public release of the Lake States variant of FVS (LS-FVS), were tested for the 30 most common tree species using data from the Michigan Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program. The results showed that current public release of the LS-FVS diameter increment model over-predicts 10-year diameter increment by 17% on average. Also the study affirms that a simple adjustment factor as a function of a single predictor, dbh (diameter at breast height) used in the past versions, provides an inadequate correction of model prediction bias. In order to re-engineer the basal diameter increment model, the historical, conceptual and philosophical differences among the individual tree increment model families and their modelling approaches were analyzed and discussed. Two underlying conceptual approaches toward diameter or basal area increment modelling have been often used: the potential-modifier (POTMOD) and composite (COMP) approaches, which are exemplified by the STEMS/TWIGS and Prognosis models, respectively. It is argued that both approaches essentially use a similar base function and neither is conceptually different from a biological perspective, even though they look different in their model forms. No matter what modelling approach is used, the base function is the foundation of an increment model. Two base functions – gamma and Box-Lucas – were identified as candidate base functions for forestry applications. The results of a comparative analysis of empirical fits showed that quality of fit is essentially similar, and both are sufficiently detailed and flexible for forestry applications. The choice of either base function in order to model diameter or basal area increment is dependent upon personal preference; however, the gamma base function may be preferred over the Box-Lucas, as it fits the periodic increment data in both a linear and nonlinear composite model form. Finally, the utility of site index as a predictor variable has been criticized, as it has been widely used in models for complex, mixed species forest stands though not well suited for this purpose. An alternative to site index in an increment model was explored, using site index and a combination of climate variables and Forest Ecosystem Classification (FEC) ecosites and data from the Province of Ontario, Canada. The results showed that a combination of climate and FEC ecosites variables can replace site index in the diameter increment model.