Probabilistic-based hurricane risk assessment and mitigation considering the potential impacts of climate change

Studies are suggesting that hurricane hazard patterns (e.g. intensity and frequency) may change as a consequence of the changing global climate. As hurricane patterns change, it can be expected that hurricane damage risks and costs may change as a result. This indicates the necessity to develop hurricane risk assessment models that are capable of accounting for changing hurricane hazard patterns, and develop hurricane mitigation and climatic adaptation strategies. This thesis proposes a comprehensive hurricane risk assessment and mitigation strategies that account for a changing global climate and that has the ability of being adapted to various types of infrastructure including residential buildings and power distribution poles. The framework includes hurricane wind field models, hurricane surge height models and hurricane vulnerability models to estimate damage risks due to hurricane wind speed, hurricane frequency, and hurricane-induced storm surge and accounts for the timedependant properties of these parameters as a result of climate change. The research then implements median insured house values, discount rates, housing inventory, etc. to estimate hurricane damage costs to residential construction. The framework was also adapted to timber distribution poles to assess the impacts climate change may have on timber distribution pole failure. This research finds that climate change may have a significant impact on the hurricane damage risks and damage costs of residential construction and timber distribution poles. In an effort to reduce damage costs, this research develops mitigation/adaptation strategies for residential construction and timber distribution poles. The costeffectiveness of these adaptation/mitigation strategies are evaluated through the use of a Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis. In addition, a scenario-based analysis of mitigation strategies for timber distribution poles is included. For both residential construction and timber distribution poles, adaptation/mitigation measures were found to reduce damage costs. Finally, the research develops the Coastal Community Social Vulnerability Index (CCSVI) to include the social vulnerability of a region to hurricane hazards within this hurricane risk assessment. This index quantifies the social vulnerability of a region, by combining various social characteristics of a region with time-dependant parameters of hurricanes (i.e. hurricane wind and hurricane-induced storm surge). Climate change was found to have an impact on the CCSVI (i.e. climate change may have an impact on the social vulnerability of hurricane-prone regions).

Portfolios and pedagogy : an examination of ideology and use

Portfolio use in writing studies contexts is becoming ubiquitous and, as such, portfolios are in danger of being rendered meaningless and thus require that we more fully theorize and historicize portfolios. To this end, I examine portfolios: both the standardized portfolio used for assessment purposes and the personalized portfolio used for entering the job market. I take a critical look at portfolios as a form of technology and acknowledge some of the dangers of blindly using portfolios for gaining employment in the current economic structure of fast capitalism. As educators in the writing studies fields, it is paramount that instructors have a critical awareness of the consequences of portfolio creation on students as designers, lifelong learners, and citizens of a larger society. I argue that a better understanding of the pedagogical implications for portfolio use is imperative before implementing them in the classroom, and that a social-epistemic approach provides a valuable rethinking of portfolio use for assessment purposes. Further, I argue for the notions of meditation and transformation to be added alongside collection, selection, and reflection because they enable portfolio designers and evaluators alike to thoughtfully consider new ways of meaning-making and innovation. Also important and included with meditation and transformation is the understanding that students are ideologically positioned in the educational system. For them to begin recognizing their situatedness is a step toward becoming designers of change. The portfolio can be a site for that change, and a way for them to document their own learning and ways of making meaning over a lifetime.

Effects of management on native and exotic plant communities in Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan

Ecological disturbances may be caused by a range of biotic and abiotic factors. Among these are disturbances that result from human activities such as the introduction of exotic plants and land management activities. This dissertation addresses both of these types of disturbance in ecosystems in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Invasive plants are a significant cause of disturbance at Pictured Rocks Natural Lakeshore. Management of invasive plants is dependent on understanding what areas are at risk of being invaded, what the consequences of an invasion are on native plant communities and how effective different tools are for managing the invasive species. A series of risk models are described that predict three stages of invasion (introduction, establishment and spread) for eight invasive plant species at Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore. These models are specific to this location and include species for which models have not previously been produced. The models were tested by collecting point data throughout the park to demonstrate their effectiveness for future detection of invasive plants in the park. Work to describe the impacts and management of invasive plants focused on spotted knapweed in the sensitive Grand Sable Dunes area of Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore. Impacts of spotted knapweed were assessed by comparing vegetation communities in areas with varying amounts of spotted knapweed. This work showed significant increases in species diversity in areas invaded by knapweed, apparently as a result of the presence of a number of non-dune species that have become established in spotted knapweed invaded areas. An experiment was carried out to compare annual spot application of two herbicides, Milestone® and Transline® to target spotted knapweed. This included an assessment of impacts of this type of treatment on non-target species. There was no difference in the effectiveness of the two herbicides, and both significantly reduced the density of spotted knapweed during the course of the study. Areas treated with herbicide developed a higher percent cover of grasses during the study, and suffered limited negative impacts on some sensitive dune species such as beach pea and dune stitchwort, and on some other non-dune species such as hawkweed. The use of these herbicides to reduce the density of spotted knapweed appears to be feasible over large scales.

Accelerometer based measurements of combustion in an automotive turbocharged diesel engine

The capability to detect combustion in a diesel engine has the potential of being an important control feature to meet increasingly stringent emission regulations, develop alternative combustion strategies, and use of biofuels. In this dissertation, block mounted accelerometers were investigated as potential feedback sensors for detecting combustion characteristics in a high-speed, high pressure common rail (HPCR), 1.9L diesel engine. Accelerometers were positioned in multiple placements and orientations on the engine, and engine testing was conducted under motored, single and pilot-main injection conditions. Engine tests were conducted at varying injection timings, engine loads, and engine speeds to observe the resulting time and frequency domain changes of the cylinder pressure and accelerometer signals. The frequency content of the cylinder pressure based signals and the accelerometer signals between 0.5 kHz and 6 kHz indicated a strong correlation with coherence values of nearly 1. The accelerometers were used to produce estimated combustion signals using the Frequency Response Functions (FRF) measured from the frequency domain characteristics of the cylinder pressure signals and the response of the accelerometers attached to the engine block. When compared to the actual combustion signals, the estimated combustion signals produced from the accelerometer response had Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) between 7% and 25% of the actual signals peak value. Weighting the FRF’s from multiple test conditions along their frequency axis with the coherent output power reduced the median RMSE of the estimated combustion signals and the 95th percentile of RMSE produced from each test condition. The RMSE’s of the magnitude based combustion metrics including peak cylinder pressure, MPG, peak ROHR, and work estimated from the combustion signals produced by the accelerometer responses were between 15% and 50% of their actual value. The MPG measured from the estimated pressure gradient shared a direct relationship to the actual MPG. The location based combustion metrics such as the location of peak values and burn durations were capable of RMSE measurements as low as 0.9°. Overall, accelerometer based combustion sensing system was capable of detecting combustion and providing feedback regarding the in cylinder combustion process