Online distribution management framework by incorporating wind generation

In distribution system operations, dispatchers at control center closely monitor system operating limits to ensure system reliability and adequacy. This reliability is partly due to the provision of remote controllable tie and sectionalizing switches. While the stochastic nature of wind generation can impact the level of wind energy penetration in the network, an estimate of the output from wind on hourly basis can be extremely useful. Under any operating conditions, the switching actions require human intervention and can be an extremely stressful task. Currently, handling a set of switching combinations with the uncertainty of distributed wind generation as part of the decision variables has been nonexistent. This thesis proposes a three-fold online management framework: (1) prediction of wind speed, (2) estimation of wind generation capacity, and (3) enumeration of feasible switching combinations. The proposed methodology is evaluated on 29-node test system with 8 remote controllable switches and two wind farms of 18MW and 9MW nameplate capacities respectively for generating the sequence of system reconfiguration states during normal and emergency conditions.

Optimization of redundancy in branched water distribution systems

In developing countries many water distribution systems are branched networks with little redundancy. If any component in the distribution system fails, many users are left relying on secondary water sources. These sources oftentimes do not provide potable water and prolonged use leads to increased cases of water borne illnesses. Increasing redundancy in branched networks increases the reliability of the networks, but is oftentimes viewed as unaffordable. This paper presents a procedure for water system managers to use to determine which loops when added to a branch network provide the most benefit for users. Two methods are presented, one ranking the loops based on total number of users benefited, and one ranking the loops of number of vulnerable users benefited. A case study is presented using the water distribution system of Medina Bank Village, Belize. It was found that forming loops in upstream pipes connected to the main line had the potential to benefit the most users.

Age-Dependent Fragility and Life-Cycle Cost Analysis of Timber and Steel Distribution Poles Subjected to Hurricanes

Power distribution systems are susceptible to extreme damage from natural hazards especially hurricanes. Hurricane winds can knock down distribution poles thereby causing damage to the system and power outages which can result in millions of dollars in lost revenue and restoration costs. Timber has been the dominant material used to support overhead lines in distribution systems. Recently however, utility companies have been searching for a cost-effective alternative to timber poles due to environmental concerns, durability, high cost of maintenance and need for improved aesthetics. Steel has emerged as a viable alternative to timber due to its advantages such as relatively lower maintenance cost, light weight, consistent performance, and invulnerability to wood-pecker attacks. Both timber and steel poles are prone to deterioration over time due to decay in the timber and corrosion of the steel. This research proposes a framework for conducting fragility analysis of timber and steel poles subjected to hurricane winds considering deterioration of the poles over time. Monte Carlo simulation was used to develop the fragility curves considering uncertainties in strength, geometry and wind loads. A framework for life-cycle cost analysis is also proposed to compare the steel and timber poles. The results show that steel poles can have superior reliability and lower life-cycle cost compared to timber poles, which makes them suitable substitutes.

WATER USE AND SYSTEM RELIABILITY UNDER DIESELGENERATOR AND SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC POWERED PUMPING SYSTEMS: A CASE STUDY OF SOLLA TOGO

Access to improved potable water sources is recognized as one of the key factors in improving health and alleviating global poverty. In recently years, substantial investments have been made internationally in potable water infrastructure projects, allowing 2.3 billion people to gain access to potable water from 1990-2012. One such project was planned and installed in Solla, Togo, a rural village in the northern part of the country, from 2010-2012. Ethnographic studies revealed that, while the community has access to potable water, an estimated 45% of the village’s 1500 residents still rely on unprotected sources for drinking and cooking. Additionally, inequality in system use based on income level was revealed, with the higher income groups accessing the system more regularly than lower income groups. Cost, as well as the availability of cheaper sources, was identified as the main deterrent from using the new water distribution system. A new water-pricing scheme is investigated here with the intention of making the system accessible to a greater percentage of the population. Since 2012, a village-level water committee has been responsible for operations and maintenance (O&M), fulfilling the community management model that is recommended by many development theorists in order to create sustainable projects. The water committee received post-construction support, mostly in the form of technical support during system breakdowns, from the Togolese Ministry of Water and Sanitation (MWSVH). While this support has been valuable in maintaining a functional water supply system in Solla, the water committee still has managerial challenges, particularly with billing and fee collection. As a result, the water committee has only received 2% - 25% of the fees owed at each private connection and public tap stand, making their finances vulnerable when future repairs and capital replacements are necessary. A new management structure is proposed by the MWSVH that will pay utilities workers a wage and will hire an accountant in order to improve the local management and increase revenue. This proposal is analyzed under the new water pricing schemes that are presented. Initially, the rural water supply system was powered by a diesel-generator, but in 2013, a solar photo-voltaic power supply was installed. The new system proved a fiscal improvement for the village water committee, since it drastically reduced their annual O&M costs. However, the new system pumps a smaller volume of water on a daily basis and did not meet the community’s water needs during the dry season of 2014. A hydraulic network model was developed to investigate the system’s reliability under diesel-generator (DGPS) and solar photovoltaic (PVPS) power supplies. Additionally, a new system layout is proposed for the PVPS that allows pumping directly into the distribution line, circumventing the high head associated with pumping solely to the storage tank. It was determined that this new layout would allow for a greater volume of water to be provided to the demand points over the course of a day, meeting a greater fraction of the demand than with the current layout.

BIAS-CORRECTED MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION OF THE PARAMETERS OF THE WEIGHTED LINDLEY DISTRIBUTION

This report discusses the calculation of analytic second-order bias techniques for the maximum likelihood estimates (for short, MLEs) of the unknown parameters of the distribution in quality and reliability analysis. It is well-known that the MLEs are widely used to estimate the unknown parameters of the probability distributions due to their various desirable properties; for example, the MLEs are asymptotically unbiased, consistent, and asymptotically normal. However, many of these properties depend on an extremely large sample sizes. Those properties, such as unbiasedness, may not be valid for small or even moderate sample sizes, which are more practical in real data applications. Therefore, some bias-corrected techniques for the MLEs are desired in practice, especially when the sample size is small. Two commonly used popular techniques to reduce the bias of the MLEs, are ‘preventive’ and ‘corrective’ approaches. They both can reduce the bias of the MLEs to order O(n−2), whereas the ‘preventive’ approach does not have an explicit closed form expression. Consequently, we mainly focus on the ‘corrective’ approach in this report. To illustrate the importance of the bias-correction in practice, we apply the bias-corrected method to two popular lifetime distributions: the inverse Lindley distribution and the weighted Lindley distribution. Numerical studies based on the two distributions show that the considered bias-corrected technique is highly recommended over other commonly used estimators without bias-correction. Therefore, special attention should be paid when we estimate the unknown parameters of the probability distributions under the scenario in which the sample size is small or moderate.