PROBABILISTIC MODELING OF RAINFALL INDUCED LANDSLIDE HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN SAN JUAN LA LAGUNA, SOLOLÁ, GUATEMALA

The municipality of San Juan La Laguna, Guatemala is home to approximately 5,200 people and located on the western side of the Lake Atitlán caldera. Steep slopes surround all but the eastern side of San Juan. The Lake Atitlán watershed is susceptible to many natural hazards, but most predictable are the landslides that can occur annually with each rainy season, especially during high-intensity events. Hurricane Stan hit Guatemala in October 2005; the resulting flooding and landslides devastated the Atitlán region. Locations of landslide and non-landslide points were obtained from field observations and orthophotos taken following Hurricane Stan. This study used data from multiple attributes, at every landslide and non-landslide point, and applied different multivariate analyses to optimize a model for landslides prediction during high-intensity precipitation events like Hurricane Stan. The attributes considered in this study are: geology, geomorphology, distance to faults and streams, land use, slope, aspect, curvature, plan curvature, profile curvature and topographic wetness index. The attributes were pre-evaluated for their ability to predict landslides using four different attribute evaluators, all available in the open source data mining software Weka: filtered subset, information gain, gain ratio and chi-squared. Three multivariate algorithms (decision tree J48, logistic regression and BayesNet) were optimized for landslide prediction using different attributes. The following statistical parameters were used to evaluate model accuracy: precision, recall, F measure and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The algorithm BayesNet yielded the most accurate model and was used to build a probability map of landslide initiation points. The probability map developed in this study was also compared to the results of a bivariate landslide susceptibility analysis conducted for the watershed, encompassing Lake Atitlán and San Juan. Landslides from Tropical Storm Agatha 2010 were used to independently validate this study’s multivariate model and the bivariate model. The ultimate aim of this study is to share the methodology and results with municipal contacts from the author's time as a U.S. Peace Corps volunteer, to facilitate more effective future landslide hazard planning and mitigation.

Parallel algorithm for solving integer linear programs

Linear programs, or LPs, are often used in optimization problems, such as improving manufacturing efficiency of maximizing the yield from limited resources. The most common method for solving LPs is the Simplex Method, which will yield a solution, if one exists, but over the real numbers. From a purely numerical standpoint, it will be an optimal solution, but quite often we desire an optimal integer solution. A linear program in which the variables are also constrained to be integers is called an integer linear program or ILP. It is the focus of this report to present a parallel algorithm for solving ILPs. We discuss a serial algorithm using a breadth-first branch-and-bound search to check the feasible solution space, and then extend it into a parallel algorithm using a client-server model. In the parallel mode, the search may not be truly breadth-first, depending on the solution time for each node in the solution tree. Our search takes advantage of pruning, often resulting in super-linear improvements in solution time. Finally, we present results from sample ILPs, describe a few modifications to enhance the algorithm and improve solution time, and offer suggestions for future work.

Soft-decision equalization techniques for frequency selective MIMO channels

Multi-input multi-output (MIMO) technology is an emerging solution for high data rate wireless communications. We develop soft-decision based equalization techniques for frequency selective MIMO channels in the quest for low-complexity equalizers with BER performance competitive to that of ML sequence detection. We first propose soft decision equalization (SDE), and demonstrate that decision feedback equalization (DFE) based on soft-decisions, expressed via the posterior probabilities associated with feedback symbols, is able to outperform hard-decision DFE, with a low computational cost that is polynomial in the number of symbols to be recovered, and linear in the signal constellation size. Building upon the probabilistic data association (PDA) multiuser detector, we present two new MIMO equalization solutions to handle the distinctive channel memory. With their low complexity, simple implementations, and impressive near-optimum performance offered by iterative soft-decision processing, the proposed SDE methods are attractive candidates to deliver efficient reception solutions to practical high-capacity MIMO systems. Motivated by the need for low-complexity receiver processing, we further present an alternative low-complexity soft-decision equalization approach for frequency selective MIMO communication systems. With the help of iterative processing, two detection and estimation schemes based on second-order statistics are harmoniously put together to yield a two-part receiver structure: local multiuser detection (MUD) using soft-decision Probabilistic Data Association (PDA) detection, and dynamic noise-interference tracking using Kalman filtering. The proposed Kalman-PDA detector performs local MUD within a sub-block of the received data instead of over the entire data set, to reduce the computational load. At the same time, all the inter-ference affecting the local sub-block, including both multiple access and inter-symbol interference, is properly modeled as the state vector of a linear system, and dynamically tracked by Kalman filtering. Two types of Kalman filters are designed, both of which are able to track an finite impulse response (FIR) MIMO channel of any memory length. The overall algorithms enjoy low complexity that is only polynomial in the number of information-bearing bits to be detected, regardless of the data block size. Furthermore, we introduce two optional performance-enhancing techniques: cross- layer automatic repeat request (ARQ) for uncoded systems and code-aided method for coded systems. We take Kalman-PDA as an example, and show via simulations that both techniques can render error performance that is better than Kalman-PDA alone and competitive to sphere decoding. At last, we consider the case that channel state information (CSI) is not perfectly known to the receiver, and present an iterative channel estimation algorithm. Simulations show that the performance of SDE with channel estimation approaches that of SDE with perfect CSI.

Towards greater accuracy in individual-tree mortality regression

Background mortality is an essential component of any forest growth and yield model. Forecasts of mortality contribute largely to the variability and accuracy of model predictions at the tree, stand and forest level. In the present study, I implement and evaluate state-of-the-art techniques to increase the accuracy of individual tree mortality models, similar to those used in many of the current variants of the Forest Vegetation Simulator, using data from North Idaho and Montana. The first technique addresses methods to correct for bias induced by measurement error typically present in competition variables. The second implements survival regression and evaluates its performance against the traditional logistic regression approach. I selected the regression calibration (RC) algorithm as a good candidate for addressing the measurement error problem. Two logistic regression models for each species were fitted, one ignoring the measurement error, which is the “naïve” approach, and the other applying RC. The models fitted with RC outperformed the naïve models in terms of discrimination when the competition variable was found to be statistically significant. The effect of RC was more obvious where measurement error variance was large and for more shade-intolerant species. The process of model fitting and variable selection revealed that past emphasis on DBH as a predictor variable for mortality, while producing models with strong metrics of fit, may make models less generalizable. The evaluation of the error variance estimator developed by Stage and Wykoff (1998), and core to the implementation of RC, in different spatial patterns and diameter distributions, revealed that the Stage and Wykoff estimate notably overestimated the true variance in all simulated stands, but those that are clustered. Results show a systematic bias even when all the assumptions made by the authors are guaranteed. I argue that this is the result of the Poisson-based estimate ignoring the overlapping area of potential plots around a tree. Effects, especially in the application phase, of the variance estimate justify suggested future efforts of improving the accuracy of the variance estimate. The second technique implemented and evaluated is a survival regression model that accounts for the time dependent nature of variables, such as diameter and competition variables, and the interval-censored nature of data collected from remeasured plots. The performance of the model is compared with the traditional logistic regression model as a tool to predict individual tree mortality. Validation of both approaches shows that the survival regression approach discriminates better between dead and alive trees for all species. In conclusion, I showed that the proposed techniques do increase the accuracy of individual tree mortality models, and are a promising first step towards the next generation of background mortality models. I have also identified the next steps to undertake in order to advance mortality models further.

Assessing Decision Making Strategies In Construction Management By Using A Schedule-Based Simulation Framework

During the project, managers encounter numerous contingencies and are faced with the challenging task of making decisions that will effectively keep the project on track. This task is very challenging because construction projects are non-prototypical and the processes are irreversible. Therefore, it is critical to apply a methodological approach to develop a few alternative management decision strategies during the planning phase, which can be deployed to manage alternative scenarios resulting from expected and unexpected disruptions in the as-planned schedule. Such a methodology should have the following features but are missing in the existing research: (1) looking at the effects of local decisions on the global project outcomes, (2) studying how a schedule responds to decisions and disruptive events because the risk in a schedule is a function of the decisions made, (3) establishing a method to assess and improve the management decision strategies, and (4) developing project specific decision strategies because each construction project is unique and the lessons from a particular project cannot be easily applied to projects that have different contexts. The objective of this dissertation is to develop a schedule-based simulation framework to design, assess, and improve sequences of decisions for the execution stage. The contribution of this research is the introduction of applying decision strategies to manage a project and the establishment of iterative methodology to continuously assess and improve decision strategies and schedules. The project managers or schedulers can implement the methodology to develop and identify schedules accompanied by suitable decision strategies to manage a project at the planning stage. The developed methodology also lays the foundation for an algorithm towards continuously automatically generating satisfactory schedule and strategies through the construction life of a project. Different from studying isolated daily decisions, the proposed framework introduces the notion of {em decision strategies} to manage construction process. A decision strategy is a sequence of interdependent decisions determined by resource allocation policies such as labor, material, equipment, and space policies. The schedule-based simulation framework consists of two parts, experiment design and result assessment. The core of the experiment design is the establishment of an iterative method to test and improve decision strategies and schedules, which is based on the introduction of decision strategies and the development of a schedule-based simulation testbed. The simulation testbed used is Interactive Construction Decision Making Aid (ICDMA). ICDMA has an emulator to duplicate the construction process that has been previously developed and a random event generator that allows the decision-maker to respond to disruptions in the emulation. It is used to study how the schedule responds to these disruptions and the corresponding decisions made over the duration of the project while accounting for cascading impacts and dependencies between activities. The dissertation is organized into two parts. The first part presents the existing research, identifies the departure points of this work, and develops a schedule-based simulation framework to design, assess, and improve decision strategies. In the second part, the proposed schedule-based simulation framework is applied to investigate specific research problems.