MINING AND VERIFICATION OF TEMPORAL EVENTS WITH APPLICATIONS IN COMPUTER MICRO-ARCHITECTURE RESEARCH

Computer simulation programs are essential tools for scientists and engineers to understand a particular system of interest. As expected, the complexity of the software increases with the depth of the model used. In addition to the exigent demands of software engineering, verification of simulation programs is especially challenging because the models represented are complex and ridden with unknowns that will be discovered by developers in an iterative process. To manage such complexity, advanced verification techniques for continually matching the intended model to the implemented model are necessary. Therefore, the main goal of this research work is to design a useful verification and validation framework that is able to identify model representation errors and is applicable to generic simulators. The framework that was developed and implemented consists of two parts. The first part is First-Order Logic Constraint Specification Language (FOLCSL) that enables users to specify the invariants of a model under consideration. From the first-order logic specification, the FOLCSL translator automatically synthesizes a verification program that reads the event trace generated by a simulator and signals whether all invariants are respected. The second part consists of mining the temporal flow of events using a newly developed representation called State Flow Temporal Analysis Graph (SFTAG). While the first part seeks an assurance of implementation correctness by checking that the model invariants hold, the second part derives an extended model of the implementation and hence enables a deeper understanding of what was implemented. The main application studied in this work is the validation of the timing behavior of micro-architecture simulators. The study includes SFTAGs generated for a wide set of benchmark programs and their analysis using several artificial intelligence algorithms. This work improves the computer architecture research and verification processes as shown by the case studies and experiments that have been conducted.

Use of hydroclimatic forecasts for improved water management in central Texas

Accurate seasonal to interannual streamflow forecasts based on climate information are critical for optimal management and operation of water resources systems. Considering most water supply systems are multipurpose, operating these systems to meet increasing demand under the growing stresses of climate variability and climate change, population and economic growth, and environmental concerns could be very challenging. This study was to investigate improvement in water resources systems management through the use of seasonal climate forecasts. Hydrological persistence (streamflow and precipitation) and large-scale recurrent oceanic-atmospheric patterns such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Pacific North American (PNA), and customized sea surface temperature (SST) indices were investigated for their potential to improve streamflow forecast accuracy and increase forecast lead-time in a river basin in central Texas. First, an ordinal polytomous logistic regression approach is proposed as a means of incorporating multiple predictor variables into a probabilistic forecast model. Forecast performance is assessed through a cross-validation procedure, using distributions-oriented metrics, and implications for decision making are discussed. Results indicate that, of the predictors evaluated, only hydrologic persistence and Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature patterns associated with ENSO and PDO provide forecasts which are statistically better than climatology. Secondly, a class of data mining techniques, known as tree-structured models, is investigated to address the nonlinear dynamics of climate teleconnections and screen promising probabilistic streamflow forecast models for river-reservoir systems. Results show that the tree-structured models can effectively capture the nonlinear features hidden in the data. Skill scores of probabilistic forecasts generated by both classification trees and logistic regression trees indicate that seasonal inflows throughout the system can be predicted with sufficient accuracy to improve water management, especially in the winter and spring seasons in central Texas. Lastly, a simplified two-stage stochastic economic-optimization model was proposed to investigate improvement in water use efficiency and the potential value of using seasonal forecasts, under the assumption of optimal decision making under uncertainty. Model results demonstrate that incorporating the probabilistic inflow forecasts into the optimization model can provide a significant improvement in seasonal water contract benefits over climatology, with lower average deficits (increased reliability) for a given average contract amount, or improved mean contract benefits for a given level of reliability compared to climatology. The results also illustrate the trade-off between the expected contract amount and reliability, i.e., larger contracts can be signed at greater risk.

Computational fluids domain reduction to a simplified fluid network

The primary goal of this project is to demonstrate the practical use of data mining algorithms to cluster a solved steady-state computational fluids simulation (CFD) flow domain into a simplified lumped-parameter network. A commercial-quality code, “cfdMine” was created using a volume-weighted k-means clustering that that can accomplish the clustering of a 20 million cell CFD domain on a single CPU in several hours or less. Additionally agglomeration and k-means Mahalanobis were added as optional post-processing steps to further enhance the separation of the clusters. The resultant nodal network is considered a reduced-order model and can be solved transiently at a very minimal computational cost. The reduced order network is then instantiated in the commercial thermal solver MuSES to perform transient conjugate heat transfer using convection predicted using a lumped network (based on steady-state CFD). When inserting the lumped nodal network into a MuSES model, the potential for developing a “localized heat transfer coefficient” is shown to be an improvement over existing techniques. Also, it was found that the use of the clustering created a new flow visualization technique. Finally, fixing clusters near equipment newly demonstrates a capability to track temperatures near specific objects (such as equipment in vehicles).

PROBABILISTIC MODELING OF RAINFALL INDUCED LANDSLIDE HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN SAN JUAN LA LAGUNA, SOLOLÁ, GUATEMALA

The municipality of San Juan La Laguna, Guatemala is home to approximately 5,200 people and located on the western side of the Lake Atitlán caldera. Steep slopes surround all but the eastern side of San Juan. The Lake Atitlán watershed is susceptible to many natural hazards, but most predictable are the landslides that can occur annually with each rainy season, especially during high-intensity events. Hurricane Stan hit Guatemala in October 2005; the resulting flooding and landslides devastated the Atitlán region. Locations of landslide and non-landslide points were obtained from field observations and orthophotos taken following Hurricane Stan. This study used data from multiple attributes, at every landslide and non-landslide point, and applied different multivariate analyses to optimize a model for landslides prediction during high-intensity precipitation events like Hurricane Stan. The attributes considered in this study are: geology, geomorphology, distance to faults and streams, land use, slope, aspect, curvature, plan curvature, profile curvature and topographic wetness index. The attributes were pre-evaluated for their ability to predict landslides using four different attribute evaluators, all available in the open source data mining software Weka: filtered subset, information gain, gain ratio and chi-squared. Three multivariate algorithms (decision tree J48, logistic regression and BayesNet) were optimized for landslide prediction using different attributes. The following statistical parameters were used to evaluate model accuracy: precision, recall, F measure and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The algorithm BayesNet yielded the most accurate model and was used to build a probability map of landslide initiation points. The probability map developed in this study was also compared to the results of a bivariate landslide susceptibility analysis conducted for the watershed, encompassing Lake Atitlán and San Juan. Landslides from Tropical Storm Agatha 2010 were used to independently validate this study’s multivariate model and the bivariate model. The ultimate aim of this study is to share the methodology and results with municipal contacts from the author's time as a U.S. Peace Corps volunteer, to facilitate more effective future landslide hazard planning and mitigation.