Estimation of scots pine defoliation by the common pine sawfly (Diprion pini L.) using multi-temporal radar data

In 1998-2001 Finland suffered the most severe insect outbreak ever recorded, over 500,000 hectares. The outbreak was caused by the common pine sawfly (Diprion pini L.). The outbreak has continued in the study area, Palokangas, ever since. To find a good method to monitor this type of outbreaks, the purpose of this study was to examine the efficacy of multi-temporal ERS-2 and ENVISAT SAR imagery for estimating Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) defoliation. Three methods were tested: unsupervised k-means clustering, supervised linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and logistic regression. In addition, I assessed if harvested areas could be differentiated from the defoliated forest using the same methods. Two different speckle filters were used to determine the effect of filtering on the SAR imagery and subsequent results. The logistic regression performed best, producing a classification accuracy of 81.6% (kappa 0.62) with two classes (no defoliation, >20% defoliation). LDA accuracy was with two classes at best 77.7% (kappa 0.54) and k-means 72.8 (0.46). In general, the largest speckle filter, 5 x 5 image window, performed best. When additional classes were added the accuracy was usually degraded on a step-by-step basis. The results were good, but because of the restrictions in the study they should be confirmed with independent data, before full conclusions can be made that results are reliable. The restrictions include the small size field data and, thus, the problems with accuracy assessment (no separate testing data) as well as the lack of meteorological data from the imaging dates.

Development of system separation strategy using synchrophasor data

In the current market system, power systems are operated at higher loads for economic reasons. Power system stability becomes a genuine concern in such operating conditions. In case of failure of any larger component, the system may become stressed. These events may start cascading failures, which may lead to blackouts. One of the main reasons of the major recorded blackout events has been the unavailability of system-wide information. Synchrophasor technology has the capability to provide system-wide real time information. Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) are the basic building block of this technology, which provide the Global Positioning System (GPS) time-stamped voltage and current phasor values along with the frequency. It is being assumed that synchrophasor data of all the buses is available and thus the whole system is fully observable. This information can be used to initiate islanding or system separation to avoid blackouts. A system separation strategy using synchrophasor data has been developed to answer the three main aspects of system separation: (1) When to separate: One class support machines (OC-SVM) is primarily used for the anomaly detection. Here OC-SVM was used to detect wide area instability. OC-SVM has been tested on different stable and unstable cases and it is found that OC-SVM has the capability to detect the wide area instability and thus is capable to answer the question of “when the system should be separated”. (2) Where to separate: The agglomerative clustering technique was used to find the groups of coherent buses. The lines connecting different groups of coherent buses form the separation surface. The rate of change of the bus voltage phase angles has been used as the input to this technique. This technique has the potential to exactly identify the lines to be tripped for the system separation. (3) What to do after separation: Load shedding was performed approximately equal to the sum of power flows along the candidate system separation lines should be initiated before tripping these lines. Therefore it is recommended that load shedding should be initiated before tripping the lines for system separation.