4 resultados para Conceptual model

em Digital Commons - Michigan Tech


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Eutrophication is a persistent problem in many fresh water lakes. Delay in lake recovery following reductions in external loading of phosphorus, the limiting nutrient in fresh water ecosystems, is often observed. Models have been created to assist with lake remediation efforts, however, the application of management tools to sediment diagenesis is often neglected due to conceptual and mathematical complexity. SED2K (Chapra et al. 2012) is proposed as a "middle way", offering engineering rigor while being accessible to users. An objective of this research is to further support the development and application SED2K for sediment phosphorus diagenesis and release to the water column of Onondaga Lake. Application of SED2K has been made to eutrophic Lake Alice in Minnesota. The more homogenous sediment characteristics of Lake Alice, compared with the industrially polluted sediment layers of Onondaga Lake, allowed for an invariant rate coefficient to be applied to describe first order decay kinetics of phosphorus. When a similar approach was attempted on Onondaga Lake an invariant rate coefficient failed to simulate the sediment phosphorus profile. Therefore, labile P was accounted for by progressive preservation after burial and a rate coefficient which gradual decreased with depth was applied. In this study, profile sediment samples were chemically extracted into five operationally-defined fractions: CaCO3-P, Fe/Al-P, Biogenic-P, Ca Mineral-P and Residual-P. Chemical fractionation data, from this study, showed that preservation is not the only mechanism by which phosphorus may be maintained in a non-reactive state in the profile. Sorption has been shown to contribute substantially to P burial within the profile. A new kinetic approach involving partitioning of P into process based fractions is applied here. Results from this approach indicate that labile P (Ca Mineral and Organic P) is contributing to internal P loading to Onondaga Lake, through diagenesis and diffusion to the water column, while the sorbed P fraction (Fe/Al-P and CaCO3-P) is remaining consistent. Sediment profile concentrations of labile and total phosphorus at time of deposition were also modeled and compared with current labile and total phosphorus, to quantify the extent to which remaining phosphorus which will continue to contribute to internal P loading and influence the trophic status of Onondaga Lake. Results presented here also allowed for estimation of the depth of the active sediment layer and the attendant response time as well as the sediment burden of labile P and associated efflux.

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The primary challenge in groundwater and contaminant transport modeling is obtaining the data needed for constructing, calibrating and testing the models. Large amounts of data are necessary for describing the hydrostratigraphy in areas with complex geology. Increasingly states are making spatial data available that can be used for input to groundwater flow models. The appropriateness of this data for large-scale flow systems has not been tested. This study focuses on modeling a plume of 1,4-dioxane in a heterogeneous aquifer system in Scio Township, Washtenaw County, Michigan. The analysis consisted of: (1) characterization of hydrogeology of the area and construction of a conceptual model based on publicly available spatial data, (2) development and calibration of a regional flow model for the site, (3) conversion of the regional model to a more highly resolved local model, (4) simulation of the dioxane plume, and (5) evaluation of the model's ability to simulate field data and estimation of the possible dioxane sources and subsequent migration until maximum concentrations are at or below the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality's residential cleanup standard for groundwater (85 ppb). MODFLOW-2000 and MT3D programs were utilized to simulate the groundwater flow and the development and movement of the 1, 4-dioxane plume, respectively. MODFLOW simulates transient groundwater flow in a quasi-3-dimensional sense, subject to a variety of boundary conditions that can simulate recharge, pumping, and surface-/groundwater interactions. MT3D simulates solute advection with groundwater flow (using the flow solution from MODFLOW), dispersion, source/sink mixing, and chemical reaction of contaminants. This modeling approach was successful at simulating the groundwater flows by calibrating recharge and hydraulic conductivities. The plume transport was adequately simulated using literature dispersivity and sorption coefficients, although the plume geometries were not well constrained.

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Approximately 90% of fine aerosol in the Midwestern United States has a regional component with a sizable fraction attributed to secondary production of organic aerosol (SOA). The Ozark Forest is an important source of biogenic SOA precursors like isoprene (> 150 mg m-2 d-1), monoterpenes (10-40 mg m-2 d-1), and sesquiterpenes (10-40 mg m-2d-1). Anthropogenic sources include secondary sulfate and nitrate and biomass burning (51-60%), vehicle emissions (17-26%), and industrial emissions (16-18%). Vehicle emissions are an important source of volatile and vapor-phase, semivolatile aliphatic and aromatic hydrocarbons that are important anthropogenic sources of SOA precursors. The short lifetime of SOA precursors and the complex mixture of functionalized oxidation products make rapid sampling, quantitative processing methods, and comprehensive organic molecular analysis essential elements of a comprehensive strategy to advance understanding of SOA formation pathways. Uncertainties in forecasting SOA production on regional scales are large and related to uncertainties in biogenic emission inventories and measurement of SOA yields under ambient conditions. This work presents a bottom-up approach to develop a conifer emission inventory based on foliar and cortical oleoresin composition, development of a model to estimate terpene and terpenoid signatures of foliar and bole emissions from conifers, development of processing and analytic techniques for comprehensive organic molecular characterization of SOA precursors and oxidation products, implementation of the high-volume sampling technique to measure OA and vapor-phase organic matter, and results from a 5 day field experiment conducted to evaluate temporal and diurnal trends in SOA precursors and oxidation products. A total of 98, 115, and 87 terpene and terpenoid species were identified and quantified in commercially available essential oils of Pinus sylvestris, Picea mariana, and Thuja occidentalis, respectively, by comprehensive, two-dimensional gas chromatography with time-of-flight mass spectrometric detection (GC × GC-ToF-MS). Analysis of the literature showed that cortical oleoresin composition was similar to foliar composition of the oldest branches. Our proposed conceptual model for estimation of signatures of terpene and terpenoid emissions from foliar and cortical oleoresin showed that emission potentials of the foliar and bole release pathways are dissimilar and should be considered for conifer species that develop resin blisters or are infested with herbivores or pathogens. Average derivatization efficiencies for Methods 1 and 2 were 87.9 and 114%, respectively. Despite the lower average derivatization efficiency of Method 1, distinct advantages included a greater certainty of derivatization yield for the entire suite of multi- and poly-functional species and fewer processing steps for sequential derivatization. Detection limits for Method 1 using GC × GC- ToF-MS were 0.09-1.89 ng μL-1. A theoretical retention index diagram was developed for a hypothetical GC × 2GC analysis of the complex mixture of SOA precursors and derivatized oxidation products. In general, species eluted (relative to the alkyl diester reference compounds) from the primary column (DB-210) in bands according to n and from the secondary columns (BPX90, SolGel-WAX) according to functionality, essentially making the GC × 2GC retention diagram a Carbon number-functionality grid. The species clustered into 35 groups by functionality and species within each group exhibited good separation by n. Average recoveries of n-alkanes and polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) by Soxhlet extraction of XAD-2 resin with dichloromethane were 80.1 ± 16.1 and 76.1 ± 17.5%, respectively. Vehicle emissions were the common source for HSVOCs [i.e., resolved alkanes, the unresolved complex mixture (UCM), alkylbenzenes, and 2- and 3-ring PAHs]. An absence of monoterpenes at 0600-1000 and high concentrations of monoterpenoids during the same period was indicative of substantial losses of monoterpenes overnight and the early morning hours. Post-collection, comprehensive organic molecular characterization of SOA precursors and products by GC × GC-ToFMS in ambient air collected with ~2 hr resolution is a promising method for determining biogenic and anthropogenic SOA yields that can be used to evaluate SOA formation models.

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In this report, we attempt to define the capabilities of the infrared satellite remote sensor, Multifunctional Transport Satellite-2 (MTSAT-2) (i.e. a geosynchronous instrument), in characterizing volcanic eruptive behavior in the highly active region of Indonesia. Sulfur dioxide data from NASA's Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) (i.e. a polar orbiting instrument) are presented here for validation of the processes interpreted using the thermal infrared datasets. Data provided from two case studies are analyzed specifically for eruptive products producing large thermal anomalies (i.e. lava flows, lava domes, etc.), volcanic ash and SO2 clouds; three distinctly characteristic and abundant volcanic emissions. Two primary methods used for detection of heat signatures are used and compared in this report including, single-channel thermal radiance (4-µm) and the normalized thermal index (NTI) algorithm. For automated purposes, fixed thresholds must be determined for these methods. A base minimum detection limit (MDL) for single-channel thermal radiance of 2.30E+05 Wm- 2sr-1m-1 and -0.925 for NTI generate false alarm rates of 35.78% and 34.16%, respectively. A spatial comparison method, developed here specifically for use in Indonesia and used as a second parameter for detection, is implemented to address the high false alarm rate. For the single-channel thermal radiance method, the utilization of the spatial comparison method eliminated 100% of the false alarms while maintaining every true anomaly. The NTI algorithm showed similar results with only 2 false alarms remaining. No definitive difference is observed between the two thermal detection methods for automated use; however, the single-channel thermal radiance method coupled with the SO2 mass abundance data can be used to interpret volcanic processes including the identification of lava dome activity at Sinabung as well as the mechanism for the dome emplacement (i.e. endogenous or exogenous). Only one technique, the brightness temperature difference (BTD) method, is used for the detection of ash. Trends of ash area, water/ice area, and their respective concentrations yield interpretations of increased ice formation, aggregation, and sedimentation processes that only a high-temporal resolution instrument like the MTSAT-2 can analyze. A conceptual model of a secondary zone of aggregation occurring in the migrating Kelut ash cloud, which decreases the distal fine-ash component and hazards to flight paths, is presented in this report. Unfortunately, SO2 data was unable to definitively reinforce the concept of a secondary zone of aggregation due to the lack of a sufficient temporal resolution. However, a detailed study of the Kelut SO2 cloud is used to determine that there was no climatic impacts generated from this eruption due to the atmospheric residence times and e-folding rate of ~14 days for the SO2. This report applies the complementary assets offered by utilizing a high-temporal and a high-spatial resolution satellite, and it demonstrates that these two instruments can provide unparalleled observations of dynamic volcanic processes.