2 resultados para Combination of short term inflation forecast models

em Digital Commons - Michigan Tech


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Northern peatlands are large reservoirs of soil organic carbon (C). Historically peatlands have served as a sink for C since decomposition is slowed primarily because of a raised water table (WT) that creates anoxic conditions. Climate models are predicting dramatic changes in temperature and precipitation patterns for the northern hemisphere that contain more than 90% of the world’s peatlands. It is uncertain whether climate change will shift northern peatlands from C sequestering systems to a major global C source within the next century because of alterations to peatland hydrology. This research investigated the effects of 80 years of hydrological manipulations on peatland C cycling in a poor fen peatland in northern Michigan. The construction of an earthen levee within the Seney National Wildlife Refuge in the 1930’s resulted in areas of raised and lowered WT position relative to an intermediate WT site that was unaltered by the levee. We established sites across the gradient of long-term WT manipulations to examine how decadal changes in WT position alter peatland C cycling. We quantified vegetation dynamics, peat substrate quality, and pore water chemistry in relation to trace gas C cycling in these manipulated areas as well as the intermediate site. Vegetation in both the raised and lowered WT treatments has different community structure, biomass, and productivity dynamics compared to the intermediate site. Peat substrate quality exhibited differences in chemical composition and lability across the WT treatments. Pore water dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations increased with impoundment and WT drawdown. The raised WT treatment DOC has a low aromaticity and is a highly labile C source, whereas WT drawdown has increased DOC aromaticity. This study has demonstrated a subtle change of the long-term WT position in a northern peatland will induce a significant influence on ecosystem C cycling with implications for the fate of peatland C stocks.

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Volcán Pacaya is one of three currently active volcanoes in Guatemala. Volcanic activity originates from the local tectonic subduction of the Cocos plate beneath the Caribbean plate along the Pacific Guatemalan coast. Pacaya is characterized by generally strombolian type activity with occasional larger vulcanian type eruptions approximately every ten years. One particularly large eruption occurred on May 27, 2010. Using GPS data collected for approximately 8 years before this eruption and data from an additional three years of collection afterwards, surface movement covering the period of the eruption can be measured and used as a tool to help understand activity at the volcano. Initial positions were obtained from raw data using the Automatic Precise Positioning Service provided by the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Forward modeling of observed 3-D displacements for three time periods (before, covering and after the May 2010 eruption) revealed that a plausible source for deformation is related to a vertical dike or planar surface trending NNW-SSE through the cone. For three distinct time periods the best fitting models describe deformation of the volcano: 0.45 right lateral movement and 0.55 m tensile opening along the dike mentioned above from October 2001 through January 2009 (pre-eruption); 0.55 m left lateral slip along the dike mentioned above for the period from January 2009 and January 2011 (covering the eruption); -0.025 m dip slip along the dike for the period from January 2011 through March 2013 (post-eruption). In all bestfit models the dike is oriented with a 75° westward dip. These data have respective RMS misfit values of 5.49 cm, 12.38 cm and 6.90 cm for each modeled period. During the time period that includes the eruption the volcano most likely experienced a combination of slip and inflation below the edifice which created a large scar at the surface down the northern flank of the volcano. All models that a dipping dike may be experiencing a combination of inflation and oblique slip below the edifice which augments the possibility of a westward collapse in the future.