Price risk management in the copper market using commodity derivatives and options strategies

Metals price risk management is a key issue related to financial risk in metal markets because of uncertainty of commodity price fluctuation, exchange rate, interest rate changes and huge price risk either to metals’ producers or consumers. Thus, it has been taken into account by all participants in metal markets including metals’ producers, consumers, merchants, banks, investment funds, speculators, traders and so on. Managing price risk provides stable income for both metals’ producers and consumers, so it increases the chance that a firm will invest in attractive projects. The purpose of this research is to evaluate risk management strategies in the copper market. The main tools and strategies of price risk management are hedging and other derivatives such as futures contracts, swaps and options contracts. Hedging is a transaction designed to reduce or eliminate price risk. Derivatives are financial instruments, whose returns are derived from other financial instruments and they are commonly used for managing financial risks. Although derivatives have been around in some form for centuries, their growth has accelerated rapidly during the last 20 years. Nowadays, they are widely used by financial institutions, corporations, professional investors, and individuals. This project is focused on the over-the-counter (OTC) market and its products such as exotic options, particularly Asian options. The first part of the project is a description of basic derivatives and risk management strategies. In addition, this part discusses basic concepts of spot and futures (forward) markets, benefits and costs of risk management and risks and rewards of positions in the derivative markets. The second part considers valuations of commodity derivatives. In this part, the options pricing model DerivaGem is applied to Asian call and put options on London Metal Exchange (LME) copper because it is important to understand how Asian options are valued and to compare theoretical values of the options with their market observed values. Predicting future trends of copper prices is important and would be essential to manage market price risk successfully. Therefore, the third part is a discussion about econometric commodity models. Based on this literature review, the fourth part of the project reports the construction and testing of an econometric model designed to forecast the monthly average price of copper on the LME. More specifically, this part aims at showing how LME copper prices can be explained by means of a simultaneous equation structural model (two-stage least squares regression) connecting supply and demand variables. A simultaneous econometric model for the copper industry is built: {█(Q_t^D=e^((-5.0485))∙P_((t-1))^((-0.1868) )∙〖GDP〗_t^((1.7151) )∙e^((0.0158)∙〖IP〗_t ) @Q_t^S=e^((-3.0785))∙P_((t-1))^((0.5960))∙T_t^((0.1408))∙P_(OIL(t))^((-0.1559))∙〖USDI〗_t^((1.2432))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((-0.0561))@Q_t^D=Q_t^S )┤ P_((t-1))^CU=e^((-2.5165))∙〖GDP〗_t^((2.1910))∙e^((0.0202)∙〖IP〗_t )∙T_t^((-0.1799))∙P_(OIL(t))^((0.1991))∙〖USDI〗_t^((-1.5881))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((0.0717) Where, Q_t^D and Q_t^Sare world demand for and supply of copper at time t respectively. P(t-1) is the lagged price of copper, which is the focus of the analysis in this part. GDPt is world gross domestic product at time t, which represents aggregate economic activity. In addition, industrial production should be considered here, so the global industrial production growth that is noted as IPt is included in the model. Tt is the time variable, which is a useful proxy for technological change. A proxy variable for the cost of energy in producing copper is the price of oil at time t, which is noted as POIL(t ) . USDIt is the U.S. dollar index variable at time t, which is an important variable for explaining the copper supply and copper prices. At last, LIBOR(t-6) is the 6-month lagged 1-year London Inter bank offering rate of interest. Although, the model can be applicable for different base metals' industries, the omitted exogenous variables such as the price of substitute or a combined variable related to the price of substitutes have not been considered in this study. Based on this econometric model and using a Monte-Carlo simulation analysis, the probabilities that the monthly average copper prices in 2006 and 2007 will be greater than specific strike price of an option are defined. The final part evaluates risk management strategies including options strategies, metal swaps and simple options in relation to the simulation results. The basic options strategies such as bull spreads, bear spreads and butterfly spreads, which are created by using both call and put options in 2006 and 2007 are evaluated. Consequently, each risk management strategy in 2006 and 2007 is analyzed based on the day of data and the price prediction model. As a result, applications stemming from this project include valuing Asian options, developing a copper price prediction model, forecasting and planning, and decision making for price risk management in the copper market.

Development of a high performance parallel computing platform and its use in the study of nanostructures : clusters, sheets and tubes .

Small clusters of gallium oxide, technologically important high temperature ceramic, together with interaction of nucleic acid bases with graphene and small-diameter carbon nanotube are focus of first principles calculations in this work. A high performance parallel computing platform is also developed to perform these calculations at Michigan Tech. First principles calculations are based on density functional theory employing either local density or gradient-corrected approximation together with plane wave and gaussian basis sets. The bulk Ga2O3 is known to be a very good candidate for fabricating electronic devices that operate at high temperatures. To explore the properties of Ga2O3 at nonoscale, we have performed a systematic theoretical study on the small polyatomic gallium oxide clusters. The calculated results find that all lowest energy isomers of GamOn clusters are dominated by the Ga-O bonds over the metal-metal or the oxygen-oxygen bonds. Analysis of atomic charges suggest the clusters to be highly ionic similar to the case of bulk Ga2O3. In the study of sequential oxidation of these slusters starting from Ga2O, it is found that the most stable isomers display up to four different backbones of constituent atoms. Furthermore, the predicted configuration of the ground state of Ga2O is recently confirmed by the experimental result of Neumark's group. Guided by the results of calculations the study of gallium oxide clusters, performance related challenge of computational simulations, of producing high performance computers/platforms, has been addressed. Several engineering aspects were thoroughly studied during the design, development and implementation of the high performance parallel computing platform, rama, at Michigan Tech. In an attempt to stay true to the principles of Beowulf revolutioni, the rama cluster was extensively customized to make it easy to understand, and use - for administrators as well as end-users. Following the results of benchmark calculations and to keep up with the complexity of systems under study, rama has been expanded to a total of sixty four processors. Interest in the non-covalent intereaction of DNA with carbon nanotubes has steadily increased during past several years. This hybrid system, at the junction of the biological regime and the nanomaterials world, possesses features which make it very attractive for a wide range of applicatioins. Using the in-house computational power available, we have studied details of the interaction between nucleic acid bases with graphene sheet as well as high-curvature small-diameter carbon nanotube. The calculated trend in the binding energies strongly suggests that the polarizability of the base molecules determines the interaction strength of the nucleic acid bases with graphene. When comparing the results obtained here for physisorption on the small diameter nanotube considered with those from the study on graphene, it is observed that the interaction strength of nucleic acid bases is smaller for the tube. Thus, these results show that the effect of introducing curvature is to reduce the binding energy. The binding energies for the two extreme cases of negligible curvature (i.e. flat graphene sheet) and of very high curvature (i.e. small diameter nanotube) may be considered as upper and lower bounds. This finding represents an important step towards a better understanding of experimentally observed sequence-dependent interaction of DNA with Carbon nanotubes.

HEALTH AND SAFETY ISSUES IN THE WORKPLACE: THE CASE OF CAMEROON TEA ESTATE (CTE), A RISK COMMUNICATION APPROACH

In 2002, motivated largely by the uncontested belief that the private sector would operate more efficiently than the government, the government of Cameroon initiated a major effort to privatize some of Cameroon’s largest, state-run industries. One of the economic sectors affected by this privatization was tea production. In October 2002, the Cameroon Tea Estate (CTE), a privately owned, tea-cultivating organization, bought the Tole Tea Estate from the Cameroon Development Corporation (CDC), a government-owned entity. This led to an increase in the quantity of tea production; however, the government and CTE management appear not to have fully considered the risks of privatization. Using classical rhetorical theory, Richard Weaver’s conception of “god terms” (or “uncontested terms”), and John Ikerd’s ethical approach to risk communication, this study examines risks to which Tole Tea Estate workers were exposed and explores rhetorical strategies that workers employed in expressing their discontent. Sources for this study include online newspapers, which were selected on the basis of their reputation and popularity in Cameroon. Analysis of the data shows that, as a consequence of privatization, Tole Tea Estate workers were exposed to three basic risks: marginalization, unfulfilled promises, and poor working conditions. Workers’ reactions to these risks tended to grow more emotional as management appeared to ignore their demands. The study recommends that respect for labor law, constructive dialogue among stakeholders, and transparency might serve as guiding principles in responding to the politics of privatization in developing countries.

Lighthouses as an overlapping boundary between maritime and terrestrial landscapes : how lighthouses served to connect the growing industries of the Keweenaw Peninsula with the world market

Lighthouses are an important part of the industrial heritage of the Keweenaw Peninsula in Michigan. They functioned as an integrated system that facilitated shipping on Lake Superior and supported the growing industry of the Keweenaw Peninsula. For this reason, lighthouses can be considered as an overlapping boundary between the maritime and terrestrial landscapes. As shipping and industry changed, the lighthouse boundary also changed. Changes to the boundary are reflected in the contractors involved in the construction of lighthouses and the decisions they made with the resources, principally building materials and knowledge, which they had at their disposal. The decline of shipping on the Great Lakes due to the increased use of roads and railroads for commerce and transportation and the decline of industry on the Keweenaw due to the decreasing profitability of the mines are reflected in gradual end of lighthouses functioning as a network.

ANALYSIS OF POPULUS TREMULOIDES CLONAL VARIATION AND DELINEATION IN THE OTTAWA NATIONAL FOREST

The technique of delineating Populus tremuloides (Michx.) clonal colonies based on morphology and phenology has been utilized in many studies and forestry applications since the 1950s. Recently, the availability and robustness of molecular markers has challenged the validity of such approaches for accurate clonal identification. However, genetically sampling an entire stand is largely impractical or impossible. For that reason, it is often necessary to delineate putative genet boundaries for a more selective approach when genetically analyzing a clonal population. Here I re-evaluated the usefulness of phenotypic delineation by: (1) genetically identifying clonal colonies using nuclear microsatellite markers, (2) assessing phenotypic inter- and intraclonal agreement, and (3) determining the accuracy of visible characters to correctly assign ramets to their respective genets. The long-term soil productivity study plot 28 was chosen for analysis and is located in the Ottawa National Forest, MI (46° 37'60.0" N, 89° 12'42.7" W). In total, 32 genets were identified from 181 stems using seven microsatellite markers. The average genet size was 5.5 ramets and six of the largest were selected for phenotypic analyses. Phenotypic analyses included budbreak timing, DBH, bark thickness, bark color or brightness, leaf senescence, leaf serrations, and leaf length ratio. All phenotypic characters, except for DBH, were useful for the analysis of inter- and intraclonal variation and phenotypic delineation. Generally, phenotypic expression was related to genotype with multiple response permutation procedure (MRPP) intraclonal distance values ranging from 0.148 and 0.427 and an observed MRPP delta value=0.221 when the expected delta=0.5. The phenotypic traits, though, overlapped significantly among some clones. When stems were assigned into phenotypic groups, six phenotypic groups were identified with each group containing a dominant genotype or clonal colony. All phenotypic groups contained stems from at least two clonal colonies and no clonal colony was entirely contained within one phenotypic group. These results demonstrate that phenotype varies with genotype and stand clonality can be determined using phenotypic characters, but phenotypic delineation is less precise. I therefore recommend that some genetic identification follow any phenotypic delineation. The amount of genetic identification required for clonal confirmation is likely to vary based on stand and environmental conditions. Further analysis, however, is needed to test these findings in other forest stands and populations.