Probabilistic-based hurricane risk assessment and mitigation considering the potential impacts of climate change

Studies are suggesting that hurricane hazard patterns (e.g. intensity and frequency) may change as a consequence of the changing global climate. As hurricane patterns change, it can be expected that hurricane damage risks and costs may change as a result. This indicates the necessity to develop hurricane risk assessment models that are capable of accounting for changing hurricane hazard patterns, and develop hurricane mitigation and climatic adaptation strategies. This thesis proposes a comprehensive hurricane risk assessment and mitigation strategies that account for a changing global climate and that has the ability of being adapted to various types of infrastructure including residential buildings and power distribution poles. The framework includes hurricane wind field models, hurricane surge height models and hurricane vulnerability models to estimate damage risks due to hurricane wind speed, hurricane frequency, and hurricane-induced storm surge and accounts for the timedependant properties of these parameters as a result of climate change. The research then implements median insured house values, discount rates, housing inventory, etc. to estimate hurricane damage costs to residential construction. The framework was also adapted to timber distribution poles to assess the impacts climate change may have on timber distribution pole failure. This research finds that climate change may have a significant impact on the hurricane damage risks and damage costs of residential construction and timber distribution poles. In an effort to reduce damage costs, this research develops mitigation/adaptation strategies for residential construction and timber distribution poles. The costeffectiveness of these adaptation/mitigation strategies are evaluated through the use of a Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis. In addition, a scenario-based analysis of mitigation strategies for timber distribution poles is included. For both residential construction and timber distribution poles, adaptation/mitigation measures were found to reduce damage costs. Finally, the research develops the Coastal Community Social Vulnerability Index (CCSVI) to include the social vulnerability of a region to hurricane hazards within this hurricane risk assessment. This index quantifies the social vulnerability of a region, by combining various social characteristics of a region with time-dependant parameters of hurricanes (i.e. hurricane wind and hurricane-induced storm surge). Climate change was found to have an impact on the CCSVI (i.e. climate change may have an impact on the social vulnerability of hurricane-prone regions).

Open top chambers and infrared lamps : a comparison of heating efficacy and CO₂/CH₄ dynamics in a Lake Superior coastal peatland

Experimental warming provides a method to determine how an ecosystem will respond to increased temperatures. Northern peatland ecosystems, sensitive to changing climates, provide an excellent setting for experimental warming. Storing great quantities of carbon, northern peatlands play a critical role in regulating global temperatures. Two of the most common methods of experimental warming include open top chambers (OTCs) and infrared (IR) lamps. These warming systems have been used in many ecosystems throughout the world, yet their efficacy to create a warmer environment is variable and has not been widely studied. To date, there has not been a direct, experimentally controlled comparison of OTCs and IR lamps. As a result, a factorial study was implemented to compare the warming efficacy of OTCs and IR lamps and to examine the resulting carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) flux rates in a Lake Superior peatland. IR lamps warmed the ecosystem on average by 1-2 #°C, with the majority of warming occurring during nighttime hours. OTC's did not provide any long-term warming above control plots, which is contrary to similar OTC studies at high latitudes. By investigating diurnal heating patterns and micrometeorological variables, we were able to conclude that OTCs were not achieving strong daytime heating peaks and were often cooler than control plots during nighttime hours. Temperate day-length, cloudy and humid conditions, and latent heat loss were factors that inhibited OTC warming. There were no changes in CO2 flux between warming treatments in lawn plots. Gross ecosystem production was significantly greater in IR lamp-hummock plots, while ecosystem respiration was not affected. CH4 flux was not significantly affected by warming treatment. Minimal daytime heating differences, high ambient temperatures, decay resistant substrate, as well as other factors suppressed significant gas flux responses from warming treatments.

Tracing the source of groundwater for three different coastal peatlands along Lake Superior

The goal of this project was to investigate the influence of a large inland lake on adjacent coastal freshwater peatlands. The specific aim was to determine the source of groundwater for three differently formed peatlands located on the southern shore of Lake Superior. The groundwater study was conducted at Bete Grise, a peatland complex in a dune-swale system; Pequaming, a peatland developed in the swale of a tombolo; and Lightfoot Bay, a peatland developed in a barrier beach wetland complex. To determine the source of groundwater in the peatlands, transects of six groundwater monitoring wells were established at each study site, covering distinctly different vegetation zones. At Pequaming and Lightfoot Bay the transects monitored two vegetation zones: transition zone from upland and open fen. At Bete Grise, the transects monitored dunes and swales. Additionally, at all three sites, upland groundwater was monitored using three wells that were installed into the adjacent upland forest. Biweekly measurements of well water pH and specific conductance were carried out from May to October of 2010. At each site, vegetation cover, peat depths and surface elevations were determined and compared to Lake Superior water levels. From June 14 – 17, July 20 – 21 and September 10 – 12, stable isotopes of oxygen (18O/16O) ratios were measured in all the wells and for Lake Superior water. A mixing model was used to estimate the percentage of lake water influencing each site based on the oxygen isotope ratios. During the sampling period, groundwater at all three sites was supported primarily by upland groundwater. Pequaming was approximately 80 % upland groundwater supported and up to 20 % Lake water supported in the uppermost 1 m layer of peat column of the transition zone and open fen. Bete Grise and Lightfoot Bay were 100 % upland groundwater supported throughout the season. The height of Lake Superior was near typical levels in 2010. In years when the lake level is higher, Lake water could intrude into the adjacent peatlands. However, under typical hydrologic conditions, these coastal peatlands are primarily supported by upland groundwater.

Assessment of soil erosion vulnerability in rural communities in the vicinity of Motozintla de Mendoza, Chiapas, Mexico : a physical and sociological approach

Soil erosion is a natural geological phenomenon resulting from removal and transportation of soil particles by water, wind, ice and gravity. As soil erosion may be affected from cultural factors as well. The physical and social phenomena of soil erosion are researched in six communities in the upper part of Rio Grijalva Basin in the vicinity of Motozintla de Mendoza, Chiapas, Mexico. For this study, the USDA RUSLE model was applied to estimate soil erosion rates in the six communities based on the available data. The RUSLE model is based on soil properties, topography, and land cover and management factors. These results showed that estimated soil erosion rates ranged from a high of 2,050 metric ton ha-1 yr-1 to a low of 100 metric ton ha-1 yr-1. A survey concerning knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) related to soil erosion was also conducted in all 236 households in the six communities. The main findings of the KAP survey were: 69% of respondents did not know what soil erosion was, while over 40% of the population perceived that hurricanes are the biggest factors that cause soil erosion, and about 20 % of the interviewees said that the landslides are the consequences of the soil erosion. People in communities did not perceive cultural factors as important in conservation efforts for reduce vulnerability to erosion; therefore, the results obtained are suggested to be useful for informing efforts to educate stakeholders.