Evaluation of flood risk in response to climate variability

Standard procedures for forecasting flood risk (Bulletin 17B) assume annual maximum flood (AMF) series are stationary, meaning the distribution of flood flows is not significantly affected by climatic trends/cycles, or anthropogenic activities within the watershed. Historical flood events are therefore considered representative of future flood occurrences, and the risk associated with a given flood magnitude is modeled as constant over time. However, in light of increasing evidence to the contrary, this assumption should be reconsidered, especially as the existence of nonstationarity in AMF series can have significant impacts on planning and management of water resources and relevant infrastructure. Research presented in this thesis quantifies the degree of nonstationarity evident in AMF series for unimpaired watersheds throughout the contiguous U.S., identifies meteorological, climatic, and anthropogenic causes of this nonstationarity, and proposes an extension of the Bulletin 17B methodology which yields forecasts of flood risk that reflect climatic influences on flood magnitude. To appropriately forecast flood risk, it is necessary to consider the driving causes of nonstationarity in AMF series. Herein, large-scale climate patterns—including El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)—are identified as influencing factors on flood magnitude at numerous stations across the U.S. Strong relationships between flood magnitude and associated precipitation series were also observed for the majority of sites analyzed in the Upper Midwest and Northeastern regions of the U.S. Although relationships between flood magnitude and associated temperature series are not apparent, results do indicate that temperature is highly correlated with the timing of flood peaks. Despite consideration of watersheds classified as unimpaired, analyses also suggest that identified change-points in AMF series are due to dam construction, and other types of regulation and diversion. Although not explored herein, trends in AMF series are also likely to be partially explained by changes in land use and land cover over time. Results obtained herein suggest that improved forecasts of flood risk may be obtained using a simple modification of the Bulletin 17B framework, wherein the mean and standard deviation of the log-transformed flows are modeled as functions of climate indices associated with oceanic-atmospheric patterns (e.g. AMO, ENSO, NAO, and PDO) with lead times between 3 and 9 months. Herein, one-year ahead forecasts of the mean and standard deviation, and subsequently flood risk, are obtained by applying site specific multivariate regression models, which reflect the phase and intensity of a given climate pattern, as well as possible impacts of coupling of the climate cycles. These forecasts of flood risk are compared with forecasts derived using the existing Bulletin 17B model; large differences in the one-year ahead forecasts are observed in some locations. The increased knowledge of the inherent structure of AMF series and an improved understanding of physical and/or climatic causes of nonstationarity gained from this research should serve as insight for the formulation of a physical-casual based statistical model, incorporating both climatic variations and human impacts, for flood risk over longer planning horizons (e.g., 10-, 50, 100-years) necessary for water resources design, planning, and management.

Warming alters photosynthetic rates of sub-boreal peatland vegetation

Boreal peatlands are important in the global carbon cycle. Despite covering only 3% of the global land area, peatlands store approximately one third of all soil carbon. Temperature is one of the major drivers in peatland carbon cycling as it affects both plant production and CO2 fluxes from soils. However, it is relatively unknown how boreal peatland plant photosynthesis is affected by higher temperatures. Therefore, we measured plant photosynthetic rates under two different warming treatments in a poor fen in Northern Michigan. Eighteen plots were established that were divided into three treatments: control, open-top chamber (OTC) warming and infrared (IR) lamp warming. Previous work at this site has shown that there was a significant increase in canopy and peat temperature with IR warming (5°C and 1.4°C respectively), while the OTC’s had mixed overall warming. Plots were divided equally into lawns and hummocks. We measured mid-day carbon dioxide (CO2) uptake on sedges (Carex utriculata), shrubs (Chamaedaphne calyculata) and Sphagnum mosses. Sphagnum moss net primary production (NPP) was also measured with cranked wires and compared with CO2 uptake. Our results indicate that there was no significant difference in sedge CO2 uptake, while shrub CO2 uptake significantly decreased with warming. A significant increase occurred in Sphagnum moss gross ecosystem production (GEP), ecosystem respiration (ER) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE). Contrary to the positive CO2 exchange of Sphagnum, overall NPP decreased significantly in hummocks with both warming treatments. The results of the study indicate that temperature partly limits the photosynthetic capacity of plants in sub-boreal peatlands, but not all species respond similarly to higher temperatures.

The effect of long-term water table manipulations on vegetation, pore water, substrate quality, and carbon cycling in a Northern poor fen peatland

Northern peatlands are large reservoirs of soil organic carbon (C). Historically peatlands have served as a sink for C since decomposition is slowed primarily because of a raised water table (WT) that creates anoxic conditions. Climate models are predicting dramatic changes in temperature and precipitation patterns for the northern hemisphere that contain more than 90% of the world’s peatlands. It is uncertain whether climate change will shift northern peatlands from C sequestering systems to a major global C source within the next century because of alterations to peatland hydrology. This research investigated the effects of 80 years of hydrological manipulations on peatland C cycling in a poor fen peatland in northern Michigan. The construction of an earthen levee within the Seney National Wildlife Refuge in the 1930’s resulted in areas of raised and lowered WT position relative to an intermediate WT site that was unaltered by the levee. We established sites across the gradient of long-term WT manipulations to examine how decadal changes in WT position alter peatland C cycling. We quantified vegetation dynamics, peat substrate quality, and pore water chemistry in relation to trace gas C cycling in these manipulated areas as well as the intermediate site. Vegetation in both the raised and lowered WT treatments has different community structure, biomass, and productivity dynamics compared to the intermediate site. Peat substrate quality exhibited differences in chemical composition and lability across the WT treatments. Pore water dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations increased with impoundment and WT drawdown. The raised WT treatment DOC has a low aromaticity and is a highly labile C source, whereas WT drawdown has increased DOC aromaticity. This study has demonstrated a subtle change of the long-term WT position in a northern peatland will induce a significant influence on ecosystem C cycling with implications for the fate of peatland C stocks.

Detecting changes in surface moisture and water table position with spectral changes in surface vegetation in northern peatlands

Due to warmer and drier conditions, wildland fire has been increasing in extent into peatland ecosystems during recent decades. As such, there is an increasing need for broadly applicable tools to detect surface peat moisture, in order to ascertain the susceptibility of peat burning, and the vulnerability of deep peat consumption in the event of a wildfire. In this thesis, a field portable spectroradiometer was used to measure surface reflectance of two Sphagnum moss dominated peatlands. Relationships were developed correlating spectral indices to surface moisture as well as water table position. Spectral convolutions were also applied to the high resolution spectra to represent spectral sensitivity of earth observing sensors. Band ratios previously used to monitor surface moisture with these sensors were assessed. Strong relationships to surface moisture and water table position are evident for both the narrowband indices as well as broadened indices. This study also found a dependence of certain spectral relationships on changes in vegetation cover by leveraging an experimental vegetation manipulation. Results indicate broadened indices employing the 1450-1650 nm region may be less stable under changing vegetation cover than those located in the 1200 nm region.

INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC, CLIMATE, AND POLICY INDUCED CHANGES OF PHOSPHORUS EXPORT IN THE UNITED STATES LAURENTIAN GREAT LAKES WATERSHEDS

Anthropogenic activities have increased phosphorus (P) loading in tributaries to the Laurentian Great Lakes resulting in eutrophication in small bays to most notably, Lake Erie. Changes to surface water quality from P loading have resulted in billions of dollars in damage and threaten the health of the world’s largest freshwater resource. To understand the factors affecting P delivery with projected increasing urban lands and biofuels expansion, two spatially explicit models were coupled. The coupled models predict that the majority of the basin will experience a significant increase in urban area P sources while the agriculture intensity and forest sources of P will decrease. Changes in P loading across the basin will be highly variable spatially. Additionally, the impacts of climate change on high precipitation events across the Great Lakes were examined. Using historical regression relationships on phosphorus concentrations, key Great Lakes tributaries were found to have future changes including decreasing total loads and increases to high-flow loading events. The urbanized Cuyahoga watersheds exhibits the most vulnerability to these climate-induced changes with increases in total loading and storm loading , while the forested Au Sable watershed exhibits greater resilience. Finally, the monitoring network currently in place for sampling the amount of phosphorus entering the U.S. Great Lakes was examined with a focus on the challenges to monitoring. Based on these interviews, the research identified three issues that policy makers interested in maintaining an effective phosphorus monitoring network in the Great Lakes should consider: first, that the policy objectives driving different monitoring programs vary, which results in different patterns of sampling design and frequency; second, that these differences complicate efforts to encourage collaboration; and third, that methods of funding sampling programs vary from agency to agency, further complicating efforts to generate sufficient long-term data to improve our understanding of phosphorus into the Great Lakes. The dissertation combines these three areas of research to present the potential future impacts of P loading in the Great Lakes as anthropogenic activities, climate and monitoring changes. These manuscripts report new experimental data for future sources, loading and climate impacts on phosphorus.

IMPACT OF 2000-2050 CLIMATE CHANGE ON GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC TRANSPORT AND DEPOSITION OF MERCURY

Since it is very toxic and accumulates in organisms, particularly in fish, mercury is a very important pollutant and one of the most studies. And this concern over the toxicity and human health risks of mercury has prompted efforts to regulate anthropogenic emissions. As mercury pollution problem is getting increasingly serious, we are curious about how serious this problem will be in the future. What is more, how the climate change in the future will affect the mercury concentration in the atmosphere. So we investigate the impact of climate change on mercury concentration in the atmosphere. We focus on the comparison between the mercury data for year 2000 and for year 2050. The GEOS-Chem model shows that the mercury concentrations for all tracers (1 to 3), elemental mercury (Hg(0)), divalent mercury (Hg(II)) and primary particulate mercury (Hg(P)) have differences between 2000 and 2050 in most regions over the world. From the model results, we can see the climate change from 2000 to 2050 would decrease Hg(0) surface concentration in most of the world. The driving factors of Hg(0) surface concentration changes are natural emissions(ocean and vegetation) and the transformation reactions between Hg(0) and Hg(II). The climate change from 2000 to 2050 would increase Hg(II) surface concentration in most of mid-latitude continental parts of the world while decreasing Hg(II) surface concentration in most of high-latitude part of the world. The driving factors of Hg(II) surface concentration changes is deposition amount change (majorly wet deposition) from 2000 to 2050 and the transformation reactions between Hg(0) and Hg(II). Climate change would increase Hg(P) concentration in most of mid-latitude area of the world and meanwhile decrease Hg(P) concentration in most of high-latitude regions of the world. For the Hg(P) concentration changes, the major driving factor is the deposition amount change (mainly wet deposition) from 2000 to 2050.

Assessment of Flood Risk Under Future Climate Conditions

Global climate change is predicted to have impacts on the frequency and severity of flood events. In this study, output from Global Circulation Models (GCMs) for a range of possible future climate scenarios was used to force hydrologic models for four case study watersheds built using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). GCM output was applied with either the "delta change" method or a bias correction. Potential changes in flood risk are assessed based on modeling results and possible relationships to watershed characteristics. Differences in model outputs when using the two different methods of adjusting GCM output are also compared. Preliminary results indicate that watersheds exhibiting higher proportions of runoff in streamflow are more vulnerable to changes in flood risk. The delta change method appears to be more useful when simulating extreme events as it better preserves daily climate variability as opposed to using bias corrected GCM output.

Influence of Vegetation Removal and Altering Water Levels on CO2 Flux Rates of a Northern Bog

Boreal peatlands contain approximately one third of the global soil carbon and are considered net sinks of atmospheric CO2. Water level position is one of the main regulators of CO2 fluxes in northern peatlands because it controls both the thickness of the aerobic layer in peat and plant communities. However, little is known about the role of different plant functional groups and their possible interaction with changing water level in boreal peatlands with regard to CO2 cycling. Climate change may also accelerate changes in hydrological conditions, changing both aerobic conditions and plant communities. To help answer these questions, this study was conducted at a mesocosm facility in Northern Michigan where the aim was to experimentally study the effects of water levels, plant functional groups (sedges, shrubs and mosses) and the possible interaction of these on the CO2 cycle of a boreal peatland ecosystem. The results indicate that Ericaceous shrubs are important in the boreal peatland CO2 cycle. The removal of these plants decreased ecosystem respiration, gross ecosystem production and net ecosystem exchange rates, whereas removing sedges did not show any significant differences in the flux rates. The water level did not significantly affect the flux rates. The amount of aboveground sedge biomass was higher in the low water level sedge treatment plots compared to the high water level sedge plots, possibly because the lowered water level and the removal of Ericaceae released nutrients for sedges to use up.