Using water balance models to approximate the effects of climate change on spring catchment discharge : Mt. Hanang, Tanzania

This project addresses the potential impacts of changing climate on dry-season water storage and discharge from a small, mountain catchment in Tanzania. Villagers and water managers around the catchment have experienced worsening water scarcity and attribute it to increasing population and demand, but very little has been done to understand the physical characteristics and hydrological behavior of the spring catchment. The physical nature of the aquifer was characterized and water balance models were calibrated to discharge observations so as to be able to explore relative changes in aquifer storage resulting from climate changes. To characterize the shallow aquifer supplying water to the Jandu spring, water quality and geochemistry data were analyzed, discharge recession analysis was performed, and two water balance models were developed and tested. Jandu geochemistry suggests a shallow, meteorically-recharged aquifer system with short circulation times. Baseflow recession analysis showed that the catchment behavior could be represented by a linear storage model with an average recession constant of 0.151/month from 2004-2010. Two modified Thornthwaite-Mather Water Balance (TMWB) models were calibrated using historic rainfall and discharge data and shown to reproduce dry-season flows with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies between 0.86 and 0.91. The modified TMWB models were then used to examine the impacts of nineteen, perturbed climate scenarios to test the potential impacts of regional climate change on catchment storage during the dry season. Forcing the models with realistic scenarios for average monthly temperature, annual precipitation, and seasonal rainfall distribution demonstrated that even small climate changes might adversely impact aquifer storage conditions at the onset of the dry season. The scale of the change was dependent on the direction (increasing vs. decreasing) and magnitude of climate change (temperature and precipitation). This study demonstrates that small, mountain aquifer characterization is possible using simple water quality parameters, recession analysis can be integrated into modeling aquifer storage parameters, and water balance models can accurately reproduce dry-season discharges and might be useful tools to assess climate change impacts. However, uncertainty in current climate projections and lack of data for testing the predictive capabilities of the model beyond the present data set, make the forecasts of changes in discharge also uncertain. The hydrologic tools used herein offer promise for future research in understanding small, shallow, mountainous aquifers and could potentially be developed and used by water resource professionals to assess climatic influences on local hydrologic systems.

PARTICIPANT IMPACTS FROM A PARTICIPATORY WATER MODELING WORKSHOP IN THE SONORA RIVER BASIN, MEXICO

Much of the research in the field of participatory modeling (PM) has focused on the developed world. Few cases are focused on developing regions, and even fewer on Latin American developing countries. The work that has been done in Latin America has often involved water management, often specifically involving water users, and has not focused on the decision making stage of the policy cycle. Little work has been done to measure the effect PM may have on the perceptions and beliefs of decision makers. In fact, throughout the field of PM, very few attempts have been made to quantitatively measure changes in participant beliefs and perceptions following participation. Of the very few exceptions, none have attempted to measure the long-term change in perceptions and beliefs. This research fills that gap. As part of a participatory modeling project in Sonora, Mexico, a region with water quantity and quality problems, I measured the change in beliefs among participants about water models: ability to use and understand them, their usefulness, and their accuracy. I also measured changes in beliefs about climate change, and about water quantity problems, specifically the causes, solutions, and impacts. I also assessed participant satisfaction with the process and outputs from the participatory modeling workshops. Participants were from water agencies, academic institutions, NGOs, and independent consulting firms. Results indicated that participant comfort and self-efficacy with water models, their beliefs in the usefulness of water models, and their beliefs about the impact of water quantity problems changed significantly as a result of the workshops. I present my findings and discuss the results.

Assessment of Flood Risk Under Future Climate Conditions

Global climate change is predicted to have impacts on the frequency and severity of flood events. In this study, output from Global Circulation Models (GCMs) for a range of possible future climate scenarios was used to force hydrologic models for four case study watersheds built using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). GCM output was applied with either the "delta change" method or a bias correction. Potential changes in flood risk are assessed based on modeling results and possible relationships to watershed characteristics. Differences in model outputs when using the two different methods of adjusting GCM output are also compared. Preliminary results indicate that watersheds exhibiting higher proportions of runoff in streamflow are more vulnerable to changes in flood risk. The delta change method appears to be more useful when simulating extreme events as it better preserves daily climate variability as opposed to using bias corrected GCM output.

FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT UNDER HISTORICAL AND PREDICTED LAND USE CHANGE USING CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC MODELING

Current procedures for flood risk estimation assume flood distributions are stationary over time, meaning annual maximum flood (AMF) series are not affected by climatic variation, land use/land cover (LULC) change, or management practices. Thus, changes in LULC and climate are generally not accounted for in policy and design related to flood risk/control, and historical flood events are deemed representative of future flood risk. These assumptions need to be re-evaluated, however, as climate change and anthropogenic activities have been observed to have large impacts on flood risk in many areas. In particular, understanding the effects of LULC change is essential to the study and understanding of global environmental change and the consequent hydrologic responses. The research presented herein provides possible causation for observed nonstationarity in AMF series with respect to changes in LULC, as well as a means to assess the degree to which future LULC change will impact flood risk. Four watersheds in the Midwest, Northeastern, and Central United States were studied to determine flood risk associated with historical and future projected LULC change. Historical single framed aerial images dating back to the mid-1950s were used along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing models (SPRING and ERDAS) to create historical land use maps. The Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land Use Change (FORE-SCE) model was applied to generate future LULC maps annually from 2006 to 2100 for the conterminous U.S. based on the four IPCC-SRES future emission scenario conditions. These land use maps were input into previously calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models for two case study watersheds. In order to isolate effects of LULC change, the only variable parameter was the Runoff Curve Number associated with the land use layer. All simulations were run with daily climate data from 1978-1999, consistent with the 'base' model which employed the 1992 NLCD to represent 'current' conditions. Output daily maximum flows were converted to instantaneous AMF series and were subsequently modeled using a Log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution to evaluate flood risk. Analysis of the progression of LULC change over the historic period and associated SWAT outputs revealed that AMF magnitudes tend to increase over time in response to increasing degrees of urbanization. This is consistent with positive trends in the AMF series identified in previous studies, although there are difficulties identifying correlations between LULC change and identified change points due to large time gaps in the generated historical LULC maps, mainly caused by unavailability of sufficient quality historic aerial imagery. Similarly, increases in the mean and median AMF magnitude were observed in response to future LULC change projections, with the tails of the distributions remaining reasonably constant. FORE-SCE scenario A2 was found to have the most dramatic impact on AMF series, consistent with more extreme projections of population growth, demands for growing energy sources, agricultural land, and urban expansion, while AMF outputs based on scenario B2 showed little changes for the future as the focus is on environmental conservation and regional solutions to environmental issues.

Development of measurement and modeling techniques to quantify atmospheric deposition of persistent, bioaccumulative and toxic chemicals in the Great Lakes

Measurement and modeling techniques were developed to improve over-water gaseous air-water exchange measurements for persistent bioaccumulative and toxic chemicals (PBTs). Analytical methods were applied to atmospheric measurements of hexachlorobenzene (HCB), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs). Additionally, the sampling and analytical methods are well suited to study semivolatile organic compounds (SOCs) in air with applications related to secondary organic aerosol formation, urban, and indoor air quality. A novel gas-phase cleanup method is described for use with thermal desorption methods for analysis of atmospheric SOCs using multicapillary denuders. The cleanup selectively removed hydrogen-bonding chemicals from samples, including much of the background matrix of oxidized organic compounds in ambient air, and thereby improved precision and method detection limits for nonpolar analytes. A model is presented that predicts gas collection efficiency and particle collection artifact for SOCs in multicapillary denuders using polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) sorbent. An approach is presented to estimate the equilibrium PDMS-gas partition coefficient (Kpdms) from an Abraham solvation parameter model for any SOC. A high flow rate (300 L min-1) multicapillary denuder was designed for measurement of trace atmospheric SOCs. Overall method precision and detection limits were determined using field duplicates and compared to the conventional high-volume sampler method. The high-flow denuder is an alternative to high-volume or passive samplers when separation of gas and particle-associated SOCs upstream of a filter and short sample collection time are advantageous. A Lagrangian internal boundary layer transport exchange (IBLTE) Model is described. The model predicts the near-surface variation in several quantities with fetch in coastal, offshore flow: 1) modification in potential temperature and gas mixing ratio, 2) surface fluxes of sensible heat, water vapor, and trace gases using the NOAA COARE Bulk Algorithm and Gas Transfer Model, 3) vertical gradients in potential temperature and mixing ratio. The model was applied to interpret micrometeorological measurements of air-water exchange flux of HCB and several PCB congeners in Lake Superior. The IBLTE Model can be applied to any scalar, including water vapor, carbon dioxide, dimethyl sulfide, and other scalar quantities of interest with respect to hydrology, climate, and ecosystem science.