Development of record-breaking statistics for climatological time-series analysis

The number of record-breaking events expected to occur in a strictly stationary time-series depends only on the number of values in the time-series, regardless of distribution. This holds whether the events are record-breaking highs or lows and whether we count from past to present or present to past. However, these symmetries are broken in distinct ways by trends in the mean and variance. We define indices that capture this information and use them to detect weak trends from multiple time-series. Here, we use these methods to answer the following questions: (1) Is there a variability trend among globally distributed surface temperature time-series? We find a significant decreasing variability over the past century for the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN). This corresponds to about a 10% change in the standard deviation of inter-annual monthly mean temperature distributions. (2) How are record-breaking high and low surface temperatures in the United States affected by time period? We investigate the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and find that the ratio of record-breaking highs to lows in 2006 increases as the time-series extend further into the past. When we consider the ratio as it evolves with respect to a fixed start year, we find it is strongly correlated with the ensemble mean. We also compare the ratios for USHCN and GHCN (minus USHCN stations). We find the ratios grow monotonically in the GHCN data set, but not in the USHCN data set. (3) Do we detect either mean or variance trends in annual precipitation within the United States? We find that the total annual and monthly precipitation in the United States (USHCN) has increased over the past century. Evidence for a trend in variance is inconclusive.

USING INDICATORS OF BIOTIC INTEGRITY FOR ASSESSMENT OF STREAM CONDITION

Multiple indices of biotic integrity and biological condition gradient models have been developed and validated to assess ecological integrity in the Laurentian Great Lakes Region. With multiple groups such as Tribal, Federal, and State agencies as well as scientists and local watershed management or river-focused volunteer groups collecting data for bioassessment it is important that we determine the comparability of data and the effectiveness of indices applied to these data for assessment of natural systems. We evaluated the applicability of macroinvertebrate and fish community indices for assessing site integrity. Site quality (i.e., habitat condition) could be classified differently depending on which index was applied. This highlights the need to better understand the metrics driving index variation as well as reference conditions for effective communication and use of indices of biotic integrity in the Upper Midwest. We found the macroinvertebrate benthic community index for the Northern Lakes and Forests Ecoregion and a coldwater fish index of biotic integrity for the Upper Midwest were most appropriate for use in the Big Manistee River watershed based on replicate sampling, ability to track trends over time and overall performance. We evaluated three sites where improper road stream crossings (culverts) were improved by replacing them with modern full-span structures using the most appropriate fish and macroinvertebrate IBIs. We used a before-after-control-impact paired series analytical design and found mixed results, with evidence of improvement in biotic integrity based on macroinvertebrate indices at some of the sites while most sites indicated no response in index score. Culvert replacements are often developed based on the potential, or the perception, that they will restore ecological integrity. As restoration practitioners, researchers and managers, we need to be transparent in our goals and objectives and monitor for those results specifically. The results of this research serve as an important model for the broader field of ecosystem restoration and support the argument that while biotic communities can respond to actions undertaken with the goal of overall restoration, practitioners should be realistic in their expectations and claims of predicted benefit, and then effectively evaluate the true impacts of the restoration activities.