Use of hydroclimatic forecasts for improved water management in central Texas

Accurate seasonal to interannual streamflow forecasts based on climate information are critical for optimal management and operation of water resources systems. Considering most water supply systems are multipurpose, operating these systems to meet increasing demand under the growing stresses of climate variability and climate change, population and economic growth, and environmental concerns could be very challenging. This study was to investigate improvement in water resources systems management through the use of seasonal climate forecasts. Hydrological persistence (streamflow and precipitation) and large-scale recurrent oceanic-atmospheric patterns such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Pacific North American (PNA), and customized sea surface temperature (SST) indices were investigated for their potential to improve streamflow forecast accuracy and increase forecast lead-time in a river basin in central Texas. First, an ordinal polytomous logistic regression approach is proposed as a means of incorporating multiple predictor variables into a probabilistic forecast model. Forecast performance is assessed through a cross-validation procedure, using distributions-oriented metrics, and implications for decision making are discussed. Results indicate that, of the predictors evaluated, only hydrologic persistence and Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature patterns associated with ENSO and PDO provide forecasts which are statistically better than climatology. Secondly, a class of data mining techniques, known as tree-structured models, is investigated to address the nonlinear dynamics of climate teleconnections and screen promising probabilistic streamflow forecast models for river-reservoir systems. Results show that the tree-structured models can effectively capture the nonlinear features hidden in the data. Skill scores of probabilistic forecasts generated by both classification trees and logistic regression trees indicate that seasonal inflows throughout the system can be predicted with sufficient accuracy to improve water management, especially in the winter and spring seasons in central Texas. Lastly, a simplified two-stage stochastic economic-optimization model was proposed to investigate improvement in water use efficiency and the potential value of using seasonal forecasts, under the assumption of optimal decision making under uncertainty. Model results demonstrate that incorporating the probabilistic inflow forecasts into the optimization model can provide a significant improvement in seasonal water contract benefits over climatology, with lower average deficits (increased reliability) for a given average contract amount, or improved mean contract benefits for a given level of reliability compared to climatology. The results also illustrate the trade-off between the expected contract amount and reliability, i.e., larger contracts can be signed at greater risk.

IMPLEMENTATION OF PHOTOGRAMMETRY TO IMPROVE PROACTIVE ASSESSMENT OF RETAINING WALLS ALONG TRANSPORTATION CORRIDORS

Retaining walls are important assets in the transportation infrastructure and assessing their condition is important to prolong their performance and ultimately their design life. Retaining walls are often overlooked and only a few transportation asset management programs consider them in their inventory. Because these programs are few, the techniques used to assess their condition focus on a qualitative assessment as opposed to a quantitative approach. The work presented in this thesis focuses on using photogrammetry to quantitatively assess the condition of retaining walls. Multitemporal photogrammetry is used to develop 3D models of the retaining walls, from which offset displacements are measured to assess their condition. This study presents a case study from a site along M-10 highway in Detroit, MI were several sections of retaining walls have experienced horizontal displacement towards the highway. The results are validated by comparing with field observations and measurements. The limitations of photogrammetry were also studied by using a small scale model in the laboratory. The analysis found that the accuracy of the offset displacement measurements is dependent on the distance between the retaining wall and the sensor, location of the reference points in 3D space, and the focal length of the lenses used by the camera. These parameters were not ideal for the case study at the M-10 highway site, but the results provided consistent trends in the movement of the retaining wall that couldn’t be validated from offset measurements. The findings of this study confirm that photogrammetry shows promise in generating 3D models to provide a quantitative condition assessment for retaining walls within its limitations.

ANALYSIS AND VISUALIZATION OF FLOW FIELDS USING INFORMATION-THEORETIC TECHNIQUES AND GRAPH-BASED REPRESENTATIONS

Three-dimensional flow visualization plays an essential role in many areas of science and engineering, such as aero- and hydro-dynamical systems which dominate various physical and natural phenomena. For popular methods such as the streamline visualization to be effective, they should capture the underlying flow features while facilitating user observation and understanding of the flow field in a clear manner. My research mainly focuses on the analysis and visualization of flow fields using various techniques, e.g. information-theoretic techniques and graph-based representations. Since the streamline visualization is a popular technique in flow field visualization, how to select good streamlines to capture flow patterns and how to pick good viewpoints to observe flow fields become critical. We treat streamline selection and viewpoint selection as symmetric problems and solve them simultaneously using the dual information channel [81]. To the best of my knowledge, this is the first attempt in flow visualization to combine these two selection problems in a unified approach. This work selects streamline in a view-independent manner and the selected streamlines will not change for all viewpoints. My another work [56] uses an information-theoretic approach to evaluate the importance of each streamline under various sample viewpoints and presents a solution for view-dependent streamline selection that guarantees coherent streamline update when the view changes gradually. When projecting 3D streamlines to 2D images for viewing, occlusion and clutter become inevitable. To address this challenge, we design FlowGraph [57, 58], a novel compound graph representation that organizes field line clusters and spatiotemporal regions hierarchically for occlusion-free and controllable visual exploration. We enable observation and exploration of the relationships among field line clusters, spatiotemporal regions and their interconnection in the transformed space. Most viewpoint selection methods only consider the external viewpoints outside of the flow field. This will not convey a clear observation when the flow field is clutter on the boundary side. Therefore, we propose a new way to explore flow fields by selecting several internal viewpoints around the flow features inside of the flow field and then generating a B-Spline curve path traversing these viewpoints to provide users with closeup views of the flow field for detailed observation of hidden or occluded internal flow features [54]. This work is also extended to deal with unsteady flow fields. Besides flow field visualization, some other topics relevant to visualization also attract my attention. In iGraph [31], we leverage a distributed system along with a tiled display wall to provide users with high-resolution visual analytics of big image and text collections in real time. Developing pedagogical visualization tools forms my other research focus. Since most cryptography algorithms use sophisticated mathematics, it is difficult for beginners to understand both what the algorithm does and how the algorithm does that. Therefore, we develop a set of visualization tools to provide users with an intuitive way to learn and understand these algorithms.