Evaluating the usefulness of soil moisture (forecasts) in streamflow prediction for central Texas

The past decade has brought significant advancements in seasonal climate forecasting. However, water resources decision support and management continues to be based almost entirely on historical observations and does not take advantage of climate forecasts. This study builds on previous work that conditioned streamflow ensemble forecasts on observable climate indicators, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) for use in a decision support model for the Highland Lakes multi-reservoir system in central Texas operated by the Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA). In the current study, seasonal soil moisture is explored as a climate indicator and predictor of annual streamflow for the LCRA region. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the correlation of fractional soil moisture with streamflow using the 1950-2000 Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Retrospective Land Surface Data Set over the LCRA region. Correlations were determined by examining different annual and seasonal combinations of VIC modeled fractional soil moisture and observed streamflow. The applicability of the VIC Retrospective Land Surface Data Set as a data source for this study is tested along with establishing and analyzing patterns of climatology for the watershed study area using the selected data source (VIC model) and historical data. Correlation results showed potential for the use of soil moisture as a predictor of streamflow over the LCRA region. This was evident by the good correlations found between seasonal soil moisture and seasonal streamflow during coincident seasons as well as between seasonal and annual soil moisture with annual streamflow during coincident years. With the findings of good correlation between seasonal soil moisture from the VIC Retrospective Land Surface Data Set with observed annual streamflow presented in this study, future research would evaluate the application of NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasts of soil moisture in predicting annual streamflow for use in the decision support model for the LCRA.

Evaluating stress patterns for Plio-Quaternary brittle deformation along the Calama-Olacapato-El Toro fault zone, Central Andes

Understanding the geometry and kinematics of the major structures of an orogen is important to elucidate its style of deformation, as well as its tectonic evolution. We describe the temporal and spatial changes in the state of stress of the trans-orogen area of the Calama-Olacapato-El Toro (COT) Fault Zone in the Central Andes, at about 24°S within the northern portion of the Puna Plateau between the Argentina-Chile border. The importance of the COT derives principally from the Quaternary-Holocene activity recognized on some segments, which may shed new light on its possible control on Quaternary volcanism and on the seismic hazard evaluation of the area. Field geological surveys along with kinematic analysis and numerical inversion of ∼140 new fault-slip measurements have revealed that this portion of the COT zone, previously considered a continuous, long-lived lineament, in reality has been subjected to three different kinematic regimes: 1) a Miocene transpressional phase with the maximum principal stress (σ1) chiefly trending NNE-SSW; 2) an extensional phase that started by 9 Ma, with a horizontal NW-SE-striking minimum principal stress (σ3) – permutations between σ2 and σ3 axes have been recognized at two sites – and 3) a left-lateral strike-slip phase with a horizontal ∼E-W &sigma1 and ∼N-S σ3 dating to the Late Pliocene-Quaternary. Spatially, in the Quaternary, the left-lateral component decreases toward the westernmost tip of the COT, where it transitions to extension; this produced to a N-S horst and graben structure. Hence, even if transcurrence is still active in the eastern portion of the COT, as focal mechanisms of crustal earthquakes indicate, our study demonstrates that extension is becoming the predominant structural style of deformation, at least in the western region. These major temporal and spatial changes in the tectonic regimes are attributed in part to changes in the magnitude of the boundary forces due to subduction processes. The overall orogen-perpendicular extension might be the result of vertical stress larger than both the horizontal stresses induced by gravitational effect of a thickened crust.