Perceptions of water conditions and management in the Sonora River Basin, Sonora, Mexico

The effects of climate change are expected to be very severe in arid regions. The Sonora River Basin, in the northwestern state of Sonora, Mexico, is likely to be severely affected. Some of the anticipated effects include precipitation variability, intense storm events, higher overall temperatures, and less available water. In addition, population in Sonora, specifically the capital city of Hermosillo, is increasing at a 1.5% rate and current populations are near 700,000. With the reduction in water availability and an increase in population, Sonora, Mexico is expected to experience severe water resource issues in the near future. In anticipation of these changes, research is being conducted in an attempt to improve water management in the Sonora River Basin, located in the northwestern part of Sonora. This research involves participatory modeling techniques designed to increase water manager awareness of hydrological models and their use as integrative tools for water resource management. This study was conducted as preliminary research for the participatory modeling grant in order to gather useful information on the population being studied. This thesis presents research from thirty-four in-depth interviews with water managers, citizens, and agricultural producers in Sonora, Mexico. Data was collected on perceptions of water quantity and quality in the basin, thoughts on current water management practices, perceptions of climate change and its management, experience with, knowledge of, and trust in hydrological models as water management tools. Results showed that the majority of interviewees thought there was not enough water to satisfy their daily needs. Most respondents also agreed that the water available was of good quality, but that current management of water resources was ineffective. Nearly all interviewees were aware of climate change and thought it to be anthropogenic. May reported experiencing higher temperatures, precipitation changes, and higher water scarcity and attributed those fluctuations to climate change. 65% of interviewees were at least somewhat familiar with hydrological models, though only 28% had ever used them or their output. Even with model usage results being low, 100% of respondents believed hydrological models to be very useful water management tools. Understanding how water, climate change, and hydrological models are perceived by this population of people is essential to improving their water management practices in the face of climate change.

Use of hydroclimatic forecasts for improved water management in central Texas

Accurate seasonal to interannual streamflow forecasts based on climate information are critical for optimal management and operation of water resources systems. Considering most water supply systems are multipurpose, operating these systems to meet increasing demand under the growing stresses of climate variability and climate change, population and economic growth, and environmental concerns could be very challenging. This study was to investigate improvement in water resources systems management through the use of seasonal climate forecasts. Hydrological persistence (streamflow and precipitation) and large-scale recurrent oceanic-atmospheric patterns such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Pacific North American (PNA), and customized sea surface temperature (SST) indices were investigated for their potential to improve streamflow forecast accuracy and increase forecast lead-time in a river basin in central Texas. First, an ordinal polytomous logistic regression approach is proposed as a means of incorporating multiple predictor variables into a probabilistic forecast model. Forecast performance is assessed through a cross-validation procedure, using distributions-oriented metrics, and implications for decision making are discussed. Results indicate that, of the predictors evaluated, only hydrologic persistence and Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature patterns associated with ENSO and PDO provide forecasts which are statistically better than climatology. Secondly, a class of data mining techniques, known as tree-structured models, is investigated to address the nonlinear dynamics of climate teleconnections and screen promising probabilistic streamflow forecast models for river-reservoir systems. Results show that the tree-structured models can effectively capture the nonlinear features hidden in the data. Skill scores of probabilistic forecasts generated by both classification trees and logistic regression trees indicate that seasonal inflows throughout the system can be predicted with sufficient accuracy to improve water management, especially in the winter and spring seasons in central Texas. Lastly, a simplified two-stage stochastic economic-optimization model was proposed to investigate improvement in water use efficiency and the potential value of using seasonal forecasts, under the assumption of optimal decision making under uncertainty. Model results demonstrate that incorporating the probabilistic inflow forecasts into the optimization model can provide a significant improvement in seasonal water contract benefits over climatology, with lower average deficits (increased reliability) for a given average contract amount, or improved mean contract benefits for a given level of reliability compared to climatology. The results also illustrate the trade-off between the expected contract amount and reliability, i.e., larger contracts can be signed at greater risk.

PARTICIPANT IMPACTS FROM A PARTICIPATORY WATER MODELING WORKSHOP IN THE SONORA RIVER BASIN, MEXICO

Much of the research in the field of participatory modeling (PM) has focused on the developed world. Few cases are focused on developing regions, and even fewer on Latin American developing countries. The work that has been done in Latin America has often involved water management, often specifically involving water users, and has not focused on the decision making stage of the policy cycle. Little work has been done to measure the effect PM may have on the perceptions and beliefs of decision makers. In fact, throughout the field of PM, very few attempts have been made to quantitatively measure changes in participant beliefs and perceptions following participation. Of the very few exceptions, none have attempted to measure the long-term change in perceptions and beliefs. This research fills that gap. As part of a participatory modeling project in Sonora, Mexico, a region with water quantity and quality problems, I measured the change in beliefs among participants about water models: ability to use and understand them, their usefulness, and their accuracy. I also measured changes in beliefs about climate change, and about water quantity problems, specifically the causes, solutions, and impacts. I also assessed participant satisfaction with the process and outputs from the participatory modeling workshops. Participants were from water agencies, academic institutions, NGOs, and independent consulting firms. Results indicated that participant comfort and self-efficacy with water models, their beliefs in the usefulness of water models, and their beliefs about the impact of water quantity problems changed significantly as a result of the workshops. I present my findings and discuss the results.

FOSSIL PLANTS AND PALYNOMORPHS FROM THE LATE PALEOZOIC CUTLER FORMATION, EASTERN PARADOX BASIN

The late Paleozoic Cutler Formation, where exposed near the modern-day town of Gateway, Colorado, has traditionally been interpreted as the product of alluvial fan deposition within the easternmost portion of the Paradox Basin. The Paradox Basin formed between the western margin of the Uncompahgre Uplift segment of the Ancestral Rocky Mountains and the western paleoshoreline of the North American portion of Pangea. The Paradox Basin region is commonly thought to have experienced semi-arid to arid conditions and warm temperatures during the Pennsylvanian and Permian. Evidence described in this paper support prior interpretations regarding paleoclimate conditions and the inferred depositional environment for the Cutler Formation near Gateway, Colorado. Plant fossils collected from the late Paleozoic Cutler Formation in The Palisade Wilderness Study Area (managed by the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management) of western Colorado include Calamites, Walchia, Pecopteris, and many calamitean fragments. The flora collected is interpreted to have lived in an arid or semi-arid environment that included wet areas of limited areal extent located near the apex of an alluvial fan system. Palynological analysis of samples collected revealed the presence of the common Pennsylvanian palynomorphs Thymospora pseudothiessenii and Lophotriletes microsaetosus. These fossils suggest that warm and at least seasonally and locally wet conditions existed in the area during the time that the plants were growing. All evidence of late Paleozoic plant life collected during this study was found along the western margin of the Uncompahgre Uplift segment of the Ancestral Rocky Mountains. During the late Paleozoic, sediment was eroded from the Uncompahgre Uplift and deposited in the adjacent Paradox Basin. The preservation of plant fossils in the most proximal parts of the Paradox Basin is remarkable due to the fact that much of the proximal Cutler Formation consists of conglomerates and sandstones deposited as debris flow and by fluvial systems. The plants must have grown in a protected setting, possibly an abandoned channel on the alluvial fan, and been rapidly buried in the subsiding Paradox Basin. It is likely that there was abundant vegetation in and adjacent to low-lying wet areas at the time the Cutler Formation was deposited.

SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING AS A QUANTITATIVE-QUALITATIVE FRAMEWORK FOR SUSTAINABLE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT: INSIGHTS FOR WATER QUALITY POLICY IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION

Early water resources modeling efforts were aimed mostly at representing hydrologic processes, but the need for interdisciplinary studies has led to increasing complexity and integration of environmental, social, and economic functions. The gradual shift from merely employing engineering-based simulation models to applying more holistic frameworks is an indicator of promising changes in the traditional paradigm for the application of water resources models, supporting more sustainable management decisions. This dissertation contributes to application of a quantitative-qualitative framework for sustainable water resources management using system dynamics simulation, as well as environmental systems analysis techniques to provide insights for water quality management in the Great Lakes basin. The traditional linear thinking paradigm lacks the mental and organizational framework for sustainable development trajectories, and may lead to quick-fix solutions that fail to address key drivers of water resources problems. To facilitate holistic analysis of water resources systems, systems thinking seeks to understand interactions among the subsystems. System dynamics provides a suitable framework for operationalizing systems thinking and its application to water resources problems by offering useful qualitative tools such as causal loop diagrams (CLD), stock-and-flow diagrams (SFD), and system archetypes. The approach provides a high-level quantitative-qualitative modeling framework for "big-picture" understanding of water resources systems, stakeholder participation, policy analysis, and strategic decision making. While quantitative modeling using extensive computer simulations and optimization is still very important and needed for policy screening, qualitative system dynamics models can improve understanding of general trends and the root causes of problems, and thus promote sustainable water resources decision making. Within the system dynamics framework, a growth and underinvestment (G&U) system archetype governing Lake Allegan's eutrophication problem was hypothesized to explain the system's problematic behavior and identify policy leverage points for mitigation. A system dynamics simulation model was developed to characterize the lake's recovery from its hypereutrophic state and assess a number of proposed total maximum daily load (TMDL) reduction policies, including phosphorus load reductions from point sources (PS) and non-point sources (NPS). It was shown that, for a TMDL plan to be effective, it should be considered a component of a continuous sustainability process, which considers the functionality of dynamic feedback relationships between socio-economic growth, land use change, and environmental conditions. Furthermore, a high-level simulation-optimization framework was developed to guide watershed scale BMP implementation in the Kalamazoo watershed. Agricultural BMPs should be given priority in the watershed in order to facilitate cost-efficient attainment of the Lake Allegan's TP concentration target. However, without adequate support policies, agricultural BMP implementation may adversely affect the agricultural producers. Results from a case study of the Maumee River basin show that coordinated BMP implementation across upstream and downstream watersheds can significantly improve cost efficiency of TP load abatement.

Stilling Basin Scour Remediation Using Air Injection and Flat Plate Extension

The South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) is responsible for managing over 2500 miles of waterways and hundreds of water control structures. Many of these control structures are experiencing erosion, known as scour, of the sediment downstream of the structure. Laboratory experiments were conducted in order to investigate the effectiveness of two-dimensional air diffusers and plate extensions (without air injection) on a 1/30 scale model of one of SFWMD gated spillway structures, the S65E gated spillway. A literature review examining the results of similar studies was conducted. The experimental design for this research was based off of previous work done on the same model. Scour of the riverbed downstream of gated spillway structures has the potential to cause serious damage, as it can expose the foundation of the structure, which can lead to collapse. This type of scour has been studied previously, but it continues to pose a risk to water control structures and needs to be studied further. The hydraulic scour channel used to conduct experiments contains a head tank, flow straighteners, gated spillway, stilling basin, scour chamber, sediment trap, and tailwater tank. Experiments were performed with two types of air diffusers. The first was a hollow, acrylic, triangular end sill with air injection holes on the upstream face, allowing for air injection upstream. The second diffuser was a hollow, acrylic rectangle that extended from the triangular end sill with air injection holes in the top face, allowing for vertical air injection, perpendicular to flow. Detailed flow and bed measurements were taken for six trials for each diffuser ranging from no air injection to 5 rows of 70 holes of 0.04" diameter. It was found that with both diffusers, the maximum amount of air injection reduced scour the most. Detailed velocity measurements were taken for each case and turbulence statistics were analyzed to determine why air injection reduces scour. It was determined that air injection reduces streamwise velocity and turbulence. Another set of experiments was performed using an acrylic extension plate with no air injection to minimize energy costs. Ten different plate lengths were tested. It was found that the location of deepest scour moved further downstream with each plate length. The 32-cm plate is recommended here. Detailed velocity measurements were taken after the cases with the 32-cm plate and no plate had reached equilibrium. This was done to better understand the flow patterns in order to determine what causes the scour reduction with the extension plates. The extension plate reduces the volume of scour, but more importantly translates the deepest point of scour downstream from the structure, lessening the risk of damage.