ASSESSMENT OF ASPEN AND NORTHERN HARDWOODS EXTENT IN THIRTY THREE COUNTIES OF UPPER/LOWER MICHIGAN

The importance of the United States' wood and wood byproducts as biomass feedstocks is increasing as the concern about security and sustainability of global energy production continues to rise. Thus, second generation woody feedstock sources in Michigan, e.g., hybrid poplar and hybrid willow (Populus spp.), are viewed as a potential source of biomass for the proposed biofuel ethanol production plant in Kinross, MI. It is important to gain an understanding of the spatial distribution of current feedstock sources, harvesting accessibility via the transportation infrastructure and land ownerships in order to ensure long-term feedstock extent. This research provides insights into the current extent of aspen and northern hardwoods, and an assessment of potential for expanding the area of these feedstock sources based on pre-European settlement conditions. A geographic information system (GIS) was developed to compile available geospatial data for 33 counties located within 150 miles of the Kinross facility. These include present day and pre-European settlement land use/cover, soils, road infrastructure, and land ownerships. The results suggest that a significant amount of northern hardwoods has been converted to other land use/cover types since European settlement, and the "scattering" of aspen stands has increased. Furthermore, a significant amount of woody biomass is available in close proximity to the existing road network, which can be effectively utilized as feedstock. Potential aspen and northern hardwoods restoration areas are identified in the vicinity of road networks which can be used for future woody feedstock production.

Geophysical and geological analysis of the Collingwood Member of the Trenton Formation

The Collingwood Member is a mid to late Ordovician self-sourced reservoir deposited across the northern Michigan Basin and parts of Ontario, Canada. Although it had been previously studied in Canada, there has been relatively little data available from the Michigan subsurface. Recent commercial interest in the Collingwood has resulted in the drilling and production of several wells in the state of Michigan. An analysis of core samples, measured laboratory data, and petrophysical logs has yielded both a quantitative and qualitative understanding of the formation in the Michigan Basin. The Collingwood is a low permeability and low porosity carbonate package that is very high in organic content. It is composed primarily of a uniformly fine grained carbonate matrix with lesser amounts of kerogen, silica, and clays. The kerogen content of the Collingwood is finely dispersed in the clay and carbonate mineral phases. Geochemical and production data show that both oil and gas phases are present based on regional thermal maturity. The deposit is richest in the north-central part of the basin with thickest deposition and highest organic content. The Collingwood is a fairly thin deposit and vertical fractures may very easily extend into the surrounding formations. Completion and treatment techniques should be designed around these parameters to enhance production.

Critical evaluation of diameter increment modelling in the Great Lakes region

Simulations of forest stand dynamics in a modelling framework including Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) are diameter driven, thus the diameter or basal area increment model needs a special attention. This dissertation critically evaluates diameter or basal area increment models and modelling approaches in the context of the Great Lakes region of the United States and Canada. A set of related studies are presented that critically evaluate the sub-model for change in individual tree basal diameter used in the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS), a dominant forestry model in the Great Lakes region. Various historical implementations of the STEMS (Stand and Tree Evaluation and Modeling System) family of diameter increment models, including the current public release of the Lake States variant of FVS (LS-FVS), were tested for the 30 most common tree species using data from the Michigan Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program. The results showed that current public release of the LS-FVS diameter increment model over-predicts 10-year diameter increment by 17% on average. Also the study affirms that a simple adjustment factor as a function of a single predictor, dbh (diameter at breast height) used in the past versions, provides an inadequate correction of model prediction bias. In order to re-engineer the basal diameter increment model, the historical, conceptual and philosophical differences among the individual tree increment model families and their modelling approaches were analyzed and discussed. Two underlying conceptual approaches toward diameter or basal area increment modelling have been often used: the potential-modifier (POTMOD) and composite (COMP) approaches, which are exemplified by the STEMS/TWIGS and Prognosis models, respectively. It is argued that both approaches essentially use a similar base function and neither is conceptually different from a biological perspective, even though they look different in their model forms. No matter what modelling approach is used, the base function is the foundation of an increment model. Two base functions – gamma and Box-Lucas – were identified as candidate base functions for forestry applications. The results of a comparative analysis of empirical fits showed that quality of fit is essentially similar, and both are sufficiently detailed and flexible for forestry applications. The choice of either base function in order to model diameter or basal area increment is dependent upon personal preference; however, the gamma base function may be preferred over the Box-Lucas, as it fits the periodic increment data in both a linear and nonlinear composite model form. Finally, the utility of site index as a predictor variable has been criticized, as it has been widely used in models for complex, mixed species forest stands though not well suited for this purpose. An alternative to site index in an increment model was explored, using site index and a combination of climate variables and Forest Ecosystem Classification (FEC) ecosites and data from the Province of Ontario, Canada. The results showed that a combination of climate and FEC ecosites variables can replace site index in the diameter increment model.