Evaluation of flood risk in response to climate variability

Standard procedures for forecasting flood risk (Bulletin 17B) assume annual maximum flood (AMF) series are stationary, meaning the distribution of flood flows is not significantly affected by climatic trends/cycles, or anthropogenic activities within the watershed. Historical flood events are therefore considered representative of future flood occurrences, and the risk associated with a given flood magnitude is modeled as constant over time. However, in light of increasing evidence to the contrary, this assumption should be reconsidered, especially as the existence of nonstationarity in AMF series can have significant impacts on planning and management of water resources and relevant infrastructure. Research presented in this thesis quantifies the degree of nonstationarity evident in AMF series for unimpaired watersheds throughout the contiguous U.S., identifies meteorological, climatic, and anthropogenic causes of this nonstationarity, and proposes an extension of the Bulletin 17B methodology which yields forecasts of flood risk that reflect climatic influences on flood magnitude. To appropriately forecast flood risk, it is necessary to consider the driving causes of nonstationarity in AMF series. Herein, large-scale climate patterns—including El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)—are identified as influencing factors on flood magnitude at numerous stations across the U.S. Strong relationships between flood magnitude and associated precipitation series were also observed for the majority of sites analyzed in the Upper Midwest and Northeastern regions of the U.S. Although relationships between flood magnitude and associated temperature series are not apparent, results do indicate that temperature is highly correlated with the timing of flood peaks. Despite consideration of watersheds classified as unimpaired, analyses also suggest that identified change-points in AMF series are due to dam construction, and other types of regulation and diversion. Although not explored herein, trends in AMF series are also likely to be partially explained by changes in land use and land cover over time. Results obtained herein suggest that improved forecasts of flood risk may be obtained using a simple modification of the Bulletin 17B framework, wherein the mean and standard deviation of the log-transformed flows are modeled as functions of climate indices associated with oceanic-atmospheric patterns (e.g. AMO, ENSO, NAO, and PDO) with lead times between 3 and 9 months. Herein, one-year ahead forecasts of the mean and standard deviation, and subsequently flood risk, are obtained by applying site specific multivariate regression models, which reflect the phase and intensity of a given climate pattern, as well as possible impacts of coupling of the climate cycles. These forecasts of flood risk are compared with forecasts derived using the existing Bulletin 17B model; large differences in the one-year ahead forecasts are observed in some locations. The increased knowledge of the inherent structure of AMF series and an improved understanding of physical and/or climatic causes of nonstationarity gained from this research should serve as insight for the formulation of a physical-casual based statistical model, incorporating both climatic variations and human impacts, for flood risk over longer planning horizons (e.g., 10-, 50, 100-years) necessary for water resources design, planning, and management.

Structural response and dynamics of fluid-structure-control interaction in wind turbine blades

Reducing the uncertainties related to blade dynamics by the improvement of the quality of numerical simulations of the fluid structure interaction process is a key for a breakthrough in wind-turbine technology. A fundamental step in that direction is the implementation of aeroelastic models capable of capturing the complex features of innovative prototype blades, so they can be tested at realistic full-scale conditions with a reasonable computational cost. We make use of a code based on a combination of two advanced numerical models implemented in a parallel HPC supercomputer platform: First, a model of the structural response of heterogeneous composite blades, based on a variation of the dimensional reduction technique proposed by Hodges and Yu. This technique has the capacity of reducing the geometrical complexity of the blade section into a stiffness matrix for an equivalent beam. The reduced 1-D strain energy is equivalent to the actual 3-D strain energy in an asymptotic sense, allowing accurate modeling of the blade structure as a 1-D finite-element problem. This substantially reduces the computational effort required to model the structural dynamics at each time step. Second, a novel aerodynamic model based on an advanced implementation of the BEM(Blade ElementMomentum) Theory; where all velocities and forces are re-projected through orthogonal matrices into the instantaneous deformed configuration to fully include the effects of large displacements and rotation of the airfoil sections into the computation of aerodynamic forces. This allows the aerodynamic model to take into account the effects of the complex flexo-torsional deformation that can be captured by the more sophisticated structural model mentioned above. In this thesis we have successfully developed a powerful computational tool for the aeroelastic analysis of wind-turbine blades. Due to the particular features mentioned above in terms of a full representation of the combined modes of deformation of the blade as a complex structural part and their effects on the aerodynamic loads, it constitutes a substantial advancement ahead the state-of-the-art aeroelastic models currently available, like the FAST-Aerodyn suite. In this thesis, we also include the results of several experiments on the NREL-5MW blade, which is widely accepted today as a benchmark blade, together with some modifications intended to explore the capacities of the new code in terms of capturing features on blade-dynamic behavior, which are normally overlooked by the existing aeroelastic models.

USING PROBABILISTIC GRAPHICAL MODELS TO DRAW INFERENCES IN SENSOR NETWORKS WITH TRACKING APPLICATIONS

Sensor networks have been an active research area in the past decade due to the variety of their applications. Many research studies have been conducted to solve the problems underlying the middleware services of sensor networks, such as self-deployment, self-localization, and synchronization. With the provided middleware services, sensor networks have grown into a mature technology to be used as a detection and surveillance paradigm for many real-world applications. The individual sensors are small in size. Thus, they can be deployed in areas with limited space to make unobstructed measurements in locations where the traditional centralized systems would have trouble to reach. However, there are a few physical limitations to sensor networks, which can prevent sensors from performing at their maximum potential. Individual sensors have limited power supply, the wireless band can get very cluttered when multiple sensors try to transmit at the same time. Furthermore, the individual sensors have limited communication range, so the network may not have a 1-hop communication topology and routing can be a problem in many cases. Carefully designed algorithms can alleviate the physical limitations of sensor networks, and allow them to be utilized to their full potential. Graphical models are an intuitive choice for designing sensor network algorithms. This thesis focuses on a classic application in sensor networks, detecting and tracking of targets. It develops feasible inference techniques for sensor networks using statistical graphical model inference, binary sensor detection, events isolation and dynamic clustering. The main strategy is to use only binary data for rough global inferences, and then dynamically form small scale clusters around the target for detailed computations. This framework is then extended to network topology manipulation, so that the framework developed can be applied to tracking in different network topology settings. Finally the system was tested in both simulation and real-world environments. The simulations were performed on various network topologies, from regularly distributed networks to randomly distributed networks. The results show that the algorithm performs well in randomly distributed networks, and hence requires minimum deployment effort. The experiments were carried out in both corridor and open space settings. A in-home falling detection system was simulated with real-world settings, it was setup with 30 bumblebee radars and 30 ultrasonic sensors driven by TI EZ430-RF2500 boards scanning a typical 800 sqft apartment. Bumblebee radars are calibrated to detect the falling of human body, and the two-tier tracking algorithm is used on the ultrasonic sensors to track the location of the elderly people.

INSTANTANEOUS PHOTOSYNTHETIC RESPONSE TO TEMPERATURE OF MATURE FOREST CANOPIES AND EXPERIMENTALLY WARMED SEEDLINGS

Tropical trees have been shown to be more susceptible to warming compared to temperate species, and have shown growth and photosynthetic declines at elevated temperatures as little as 3oC above ambient. However, regional and global vegetation models lack the data needed to accurately represent physiological response to increased temperatures in tropical forests. We compared the instantaneous photosynthetic responses to elevated temperatures of four mature tropical rainforest tree species in Puerto Rico and the temperate broadleaf species sugar maple (Acer saccharum) in Michigan. Contrary to expectations, leaves in the upper canopy of both temperate and tropical forests had temperature optima that are already exceeded by mean daily leaf temperatures. This indicates that tropical and temperate forests are already seeing photosynthesis decline at mid-day temperature. This decline may worsen as air temperatures rise with climate change if trees are unable to acclimate, increasing the likelihood that forests may shift from carbon sinks to sources. A secondary study was conducted on experimentally warmed sugar maple seedlings to determine if photosynthesis had been able to acclimate to +5oC air temperature over four years. Species abundance models had predicted a decline of sugar maple within the Upper Peninsula of Michigan over the next 100 years, due to elevated temperature and altered precipitation. Instantaneous photosynthetic temperature response curves on both control and heated seedlings showed that the differences between treatments were not statistically significant, though there was a 16% increase in temperature optima and a 3% increase in maximum rates of photosynthesis in warmed plots. Though evidence of acclimation was not significant, the seedlings did not fare poorly as the models suggest.

DEVELOPMENT OF ION EXCHANGE MODELS FOR WATER TREATMENT AND APPLICATION TO THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION WATER PROCESSOR

The International Space Station (ISS) requires a substantial amount of potable water for use by the crew. The economic and logistic limitations of transporting the vast amount of water required onboard the ISS necessitate onboard recovery and reuse of the aqueous waste streams. Various treatment technologies are employed within the ISS water processor to render the waste water potable, including filtration, ion exchange, adsorption, and catalytic wet oxidation. The ion exchange resins and adsorption media are combined in multifiltration beds for removal of ionic and organic compounds. A mathematical model (MFBMODEL™) designed to predict the performance of a multifiltration (MF) bed was developed. MFBMODEL consists of ion exchange models for describing the behavior of the different resin types in a MF bed (e.g., mixed bed, strong acid cation, strong base anion, and weak base anion exchange resins) and an adsorption model capable of predicting the performance of the adsorbents in a MF bed. Multicomponent ion exchange ii equilibrium models that incorporate the water formation reaction, electroneutrality condition, and degree of ionization of weak acids and bases for mixed bed, strong acid cation, strong base anion, and weak base anion exchange resins were developed and verified. The equilibrium models developed use a tanks-inseries approach that allows for consideration of variable influent concentrations. The adsorption modeling approach was developed in related studies and application within the MFBMODEL framework was demonstrated in the Appendix to this study. MFBMODEL consists of a graphical user interface programmed in Visual Basic and Fortran computational routines. This dissertation shows MF bed modeling results in which the model is verified for a surrogate of the ISS waste shower and handwash stream. In addition, a multicomponent ion exchange model that incorporates mass transfer effects was developed, which is capable of describing the performance of strong acid cation (SAC) and strong base anion (SBA) exchange resins, but not including reaction effects. This dissertation presents results showing the mass transfer model's capability to predict the performance of binary and multicomponent column data for SAC and SBA exchange resins. The ion exchange equilibrium and mass transfer models developed in this study are also applicable to terrestrial water treatment systems. They could be applied for removal of cations and anions from groundwater (e.g., hardness, nitrate, perchlorate) and from industrial process waters (e.g. boiler water, ultrapure water in the semiconductor industry).