Risk assessment for invasive exotic plants using multi-criteria risk models

Invasive exotic plants have altered natural ecosystems across much of North America. In the Midwest, the presence of invasive plants is increasing rapidly, causing changes in ecosystem patterns and processes. Early detection has become a key component in invasive plant management and in the detection of ecosystem change. Risk assessment through predictive modeling has been a useful resource for monitoring and assisting with treatment decisions for invasive plants. Predictive models were developed to assist with early detection of ten target invasive plants in the Great Lakes Network of the National Park Service and for garlic mustard throughout the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. These multi-criteria risk models utilize geographic information system (GIS) data to predict the areas at highest risk for three phases of invasion: introduction, establishment, and spread. An accuracy assessment of the models for the ten target plants in the Great Lakes Network showed an average overall accuracy of 86.3%. The model developed for garlic mustard in the Upper Peninsula resulted in an accuracy of 99.0%. Used as one of many resources, the risk maps created from the model outputs will assist with the detection of ecosystem change, the monitoring of plant invasions, and the management of invasive plants through prioritized control efforts.

Keweenaw National Historical Park: Heritage Partnerships in an Industrial Landscape

This dissertation examines the genesis and development of Keweenaw National Historical Park in Michigan's Upper Peninsula. After the decline of a once-thriving copper mining industry, local residents pursued the creation of a national park as a way to encourage economic development, revitalize their community, and preserve their historic resources. Although they were ultimately successful in creating a national park, the park that was established was not the park that they envisioned. Over the next twenty years, the National Park Service, the park's federal Advisory Commission, and the communities on the Keweenaw Peninsula struggled to align unrealistic expectations with the actual capabilities and limitations of the park. The first chapter of this dissertation includes a short history of the decline of the copper industry in and around the village of Calumet, Michigan. This chapter also includes a discussion about the techniques and challenges of preserving and interpreting industrial heritage. Chapters 2 and 3 cover the events from the initial park proposal, to the expansion of the original idea, to the establishment of the park. Chapter 4 includes an examination of the enabling legislation and a discussion about the opportunities and challenges it provided. Chapters 5 through 8 cover the tenure of each of the four NPS superintendents as they navigated the complexities presented by a park model that was part partnership park and part traditional national park. Chapter 9 includes some key lessons, an assessment of the park's success, and some considerations for the future. In particular, Chapter 9 argues for an increased focus on the partnership aspects of the park, a reduction in the perceived scope of responsibilities, and a renewed effort to rally the existing partners in pursuing additional philanthropic support for the overall park.