PROBABILISTIC MODELING OF RAINFALL INDUCED LANDSLIDE HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN SAN JUAN LA LAGUNA, SOLOLÁ, GUATEMALA

The municipality of San Juan La Laguna, Guatemala is home to approximately 5,200 people and located on the western side of the Lake Atitlán caldera. Steep slopes surround all but the eastern side of San Juan. The Lake Atitlán watershed is susceptible to many natural hazards, but most predictable are the landslides that can occur annually with each rainy season, especially during high-intensity events. Hurricane Stan hit Guatemala in October 2005; the resulting flooding and landslides devastated the Atitlán region. Locations of landslide and non-landslide points were obtained from field observations and orthophotos taken following Hurricane Stan. This study used data from multiple attributes, at every landslide and non-landslide point, and applied different multivariate analyses to optimize a model for landslides prediction during high-intensity precipitation events like Hurricane Stan. The attributes considered in this study are: geology, geomorphology, distance to faults and streams, land use, slope, aspect, curvature, plan curvature, profile curvature and topographic wetness index. The attributes were pre-evaluated for their ability to predict landslides using four different attribute evaluators, all available in the open source data mining software Weka: filtered subset, information gain, gain ratio and chi-squared. Three multivariate algorithms (decision tree J48, logistic regression and BayesNet) were optimized for landslide prediction using different attributes. The following statistical parameters were used to evaluate model accuracy: precision, recall, F measure and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The algorithm BayesNet yielded the most accurate model and was used to build a probability map of landslide initiation points. The probability map developed in this study was also compared to the results of a bivariate landslide susceptibility analysis conducted for the watershed, encompassing Lake Atitlán and San Juan. Landslides from Tropical Storm Agatha 2010 were used to independently validate this study’s multivariate model and the bivariate model. The ultimate aim of this study is to share the methodology and results with municipal contacts from the author's time as a U.S. Peace Corps volunteer, to facilitate more effective future landslide hazard planning and mitigation.

SUPPORTING LEARNING FOR NAVAJO STUDENTS THROUGH ETHNOMATHEMATICS

The purpose of this research was to address how culturally informed ethnomathematical methods of teaching can be utilized to support the learning of Navajo students in mathematics. The study was conducted over the course of four years on the Navajo Reservations at Tohatchi Middle School in Tohatchi New Mexico. The students involved in the study were all in 8th grade and were enrolled either in Algebra 1 or a Response to Intervention, RTI, class. The data collected came in the form of a student survey, student observation and student assessment. The teacher written survey, a math textbook word problem, and two original math textbook problems along with their rewritten version were the sources of these three studies. The first year of the study consisted of a math attitude survey and how Navajo students perceived math as a subject of interest. The students answered four questions pertaining to their thoughts about mathematics. The students’ responses were positive according to their written answers. The second year of the study involved the observation of how students worked through a math word problem as a group. This method tested how the students culturally interacted in order to solve a math problem. Their questions and reasoning to solve the problem were shared with peers and the teacher. The teacher supported the students in understanding and solving the problem by asking questions that kept the students focused on the goal of solving the problem. The students worked collaboratively and openly in order to complete the activity. During the iv study, the teacher was more able to notice the students’ deficiencies individually or as a group, therefore was able to support them in a more specific manner. The last study was conducted over a period of two different years. This study was used to determine how textbook bias in the form of its sentence structure or word choice affects the performance of students who are not culturally familiar with one or both. It was found that the students performed better and took less time on the rewritten problem than on the original problem. The data suggests that focusing on the culture, language and education of Navajo students can affect how the students learn and understand math.