Spatial and temporal patterns in ungulate-ecosystem interactions

Ungulates are important components of a variety of ecosystems worldwide. This dissertation integrates aspects of ungulate and forest ecology to increase our understanding of how they work together in ways that are of interest to natural resource managers, educators, and those who are simply curious about nature. Although animal ecology and ecosystem ecology are often studied separately, one of the general goals of this dissertation is to examine how they interact across spatial and temporal scales. Forest ecosystems are heterogeneous across a range of scales. Spatial and temporal habitat use patterns of forest ungulates tend to be congregated in patches where food and/or cover are readily available. Ungulates interact with ecosystem processes by selectively foraging on plants and excreting waste products in concentrated patches. Positive feedbacks may develop where these activities increase the value of habitat through soil fertilization or the alteration of plant chemistry and architecture. Heterogeneity in ecosystem processes and plant community structure, observed at both stand and local scales, may be the integrated outcome of feedbacks between ungulate behavior and abiotic resource gradients. The first chapter of this dissertation briefly discusses pertinent background information on ungulate ecology, with a focus on white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in the Upper Great Lakes region and moose (Alces acles) in Isle Royale National Park, Michigan, USA. The second chapter demonstrates why ecological context is important for studying ungulate ecology in forest ecosystems. Excluding deer from eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) stands, which deer use primarily as winter cover, resulted in less spatial complexity in soil reactive nitrogen and greater complexity in diffuse light compared to unfenced stands. The spatial patterning of herbaceous-layer cover was more similar to nitrogen where deer were present, and was a combination of nitrogen and light within deer exclosures. This relationship depends on the seasonal timing of deer habitat use because deer fertilize the soil during winter, but leave during the growing season. The third chapter draws upon an eight-year, 39-stand data set of deer fecal pellet counts in hemlock stands to estimate the amount of nitrogen that deer are depositing in hemlock stands each winter. In stands of high winter deer use, deer-excreted nitrogen inputs consistently exceeded those of atmospheric deposition at the stand scale. At the neighborhood scale, deer-excreted nitrogen was often in excess of atmospheric deposition due to the patchy distribution of deer habitat use. Spatial patterns in habitat use were consistent over the eight-year study at both stand and neighborhood scales. The fourth chapter explores how foraging selectivity by moose interacts with an abiotic resource gradient to influence forest structure and composition. Soil depth on Isle Royale varies from east to west according to glacial history. Fir saplings growing in deeper soils on the west side are generally more palatable forage for moose (lower foliar C:N) than those growing in shallower soils on the east side. Therefore, saplings growing in better conditions are less likely to reach the canopy due to moose browsing, and fir is a smaller overstory component on the west side. Lastly, chapter five focuses on issues surrounding eastern hemlock regeneration failure, which is a habitat type that is important to many wildlife species. Increasing hemlock on the landscape is complicated by several factors including disturbance regime and climate change, in addition to the influence of deer.

THE USE OF LIFE-CYCLE ANALYSIS TO REDUCE THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF MATERIALS IN MANUFACTURING

This thesis is composed of three life-cycle analysis (LCA) studies of manufacturing to determine cumulative energy demand (CED) and greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). The methods proposed could reduce the environmental impact by reducing the CED in three manufacturing processes. First, industrial symbiosis is proposed and a LCA is performed on both conventional 1 GW-scaled hydrogenated amorphous silicon (a-Si:H)-based single junction and a-Si:H/microcrystalline-Si:H tandem cell solar PV manufacturing plants and such plants coupled to silane recycling plants. Using a recycling process that results in a silane loss of only 17 versus 85 percent, this results in a CED savings of 81,700 GJ and 290,000 GJ per year for single and tandem junction plants, respectively. This recycling process reduces the cost of raw silane by 68 percent, or approximately $22.6 and $79 million per year for a single and tandem 1 GW PV production facility, respectively. The results show environmental benefits of silane recycling centered around a-Si:H-based PV manufacturing plants. Second, an open-source self-replicating rapid prototype or 3-D printer, the RepRap, has the potential to reduce the environmental impact of manufacturing of polymer-based products, using distributed manufacturing paradigm, which is further minimized by the use of PV and improvements in PV manufacturing. Using 3-D printers for manufacturing provides the ability to ultra-customize products and to change fill composition, which increases material efficiency. An LCA was performed on three polymer-based products to determine the CED and GHG from conventional large-scale production and are compared to experimental measurements on a RepRap producing identical products with ABS and PLA. The results of this LCA study indicate that the CED of manufacturing polymer products can possibly be reduced using distributed manufacturing with existing 3-D printers under 89% fill and reduced even further with a solar photovoltaic system. The results indicate that the ability of RepRaps to vary fill has the potential to diminish environmental impact on many products. Third, one additional way to improve the environmental performance of this distributed manufacturing system is to create the polymer filament feedstock for 3-D printers using post-consumer plastic bottles. An LCA was performed on the recycling of high density polyethylene (HDPE) using the RecycleBot. The results of the LCA showed that distributed recycling has a lower CED than the best-case scenario used for centralized recycling. If this process is applied to the HDPE currently recycled in the U.S., more than 100 million MJ of energy could be conserved per annum along with significant reductions in GHG. This presents a novel path to a future of distributed manufacturing suited for both the developed and developing world with reduced environmental impact. From improving manufacturing in the photovoltaic industry with the use of recycling to recycling and manufacturing plastic products within our own homes, each step reduces the impact on the environment. The three coupled projects presented here show a clear potential to reduce the environmental impact of manufacturing and other processes by implementing complimenting systems, which have environmental benefits of their own in order to achieve a compounding effect of reduced CED and GHG.

EXPLORATION OF THE MTSAT2 SATELLITE CAPABILITIES FOR REAL TIME DETECTION AND CHARACTERIZATION OF VOLCANIC EMISSIONS

In this report, we attempt to define the capabilities of the infrared satellite remote sensor, Multifunctional Transport Satellite-2 (MTSAT-2) (i.e. a geosynchronous instrument), in characterizing volcanic eruptive behavior in the highly active region of Indonesia. Sulfur dioxide data from NASA's Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) (i.e. a polar orbiting instrument) are presented here for validation of the processes interpreted using the thermal infrared datasets. Data provided from two case studies are analyzed specifically for eruptive products producing large thermal anomalies (i.e. lava flows, lava domes, etc.), volcanic ash and SO2 clouds; three distinctly characteristic and abundant volcanic emissions. Two primary methods used for detection of heat signatures are used and compared in this report including, single-channel thermal radiance (4-µm) and the normalized thermal index (NTI) algorithm. For automated purposes, fixed thresholds must be determined for these methods. A base minimum detection limit (MDL) for single-channel thermal radiance of 2.30E+05 Wm- 2sr-1m-1 and -0.925 for NTI generate false alarm rates of 35.78% and 34.16%, respectively. A spatial comparison method, developed here specifically for use in Indonesia and used as a second parameter for detection, is implemented to address the high false alarm rate. For the single-channel thermal radiance method, the utilization of the spatial comparison method eliminated 100% of the false alarms while maintaining every true anomaly. The NTI algorithm showed similar results with only 2 false alarms remaining. No definitive difference is observed between the two thermal detection methods for automated use; however, the single-channel thermal radiance method coupled with the SO2 mass abundance data can be used to interpret volcanic processes including the identification of lava dome activity at Sinabung as well as the mechanism for the dome emplacement (i.e. endogenous or exogenous). Only one technique, the brightness temperature difference (BTD) method, is used for the detection of ash. Trends of ash area, water/ice area, and their respective concentrations yield interpretations of increased ice formation, aggregation, and sedimentation processes that only a high-temporal resolution instrument like the MTSAT-2 can analyze. A conceptual model of a secondary zone of aggregation occurring in the migrating Kelut ash cloud, which decreases the distal fine-ash component and hazards to flight paths, is presented in this report. Unfortunately, SO2 data was unable to definitively reinforce the concept of a secondary zone of aggregation due to the lack of a sufficient temporal resolution. However, a detailed study of the Kelut SO2 cloud is used to determine that there was no climatic impacts generated from this eruption due to the atmospheric residence times and e-folding rate of ~14 days for the SO2. This report applies the complementary assets offered by utilizing a high-temporal and a high-spatial resolution satellite, and it demonstrates that these two instruments can provide unparalleled observations of dynamic volcanic processes.

Long-Range Pollution Transport: Trans-Atlantic Mechanisms and Lagrangian Modeling Methods

Over the past several decades, it has become apparent that anthropogenic activities have resulted in the large-scale enhancement of the levels of many trace gases throughout the troposphere. More recently, attention has been given to the transport pathway taken by these emissions as they are dispersed throughout the atmosphere. The transport pathway determines the physical characteristics of emissions plumes and therefore plays an important role in the chemical transformations that can occur downwind of source regions. For example, the production of ozone (O3) is strongly dependent upon the transport its precursors undergo. O3 can initially be formed within air masses while still over polluted source regions. These polluted air masses can experience continued O3 production or O3 destruction downwind, depending on the air mass's chemical and transport characteristics. At present, however, there are a number of uncertainties in the relationships between transport and O3 production in the North Atlantic lower free troposphere. The first phase of the study presented here used measurements made at the Pico Mountain observatory and model simulations to determine transport pathways for US emissions to the observatory. The Pico Mountain observatory was established in the summer of 2001 in order to address the need to understand the relationships between transport and O3 production. Measurements from the observatory were analyzed in conjunction with model simulations from the Lagrangian particle dispersion model (LPDM), FLEX-PART, in order to determine the transport pathway for events observed at the Pico Mountain observatory during July 2003. A total of 16 events were observed, 4 of which were analyzed in detail. The transport time for these 16 events varied from 4.5 to 7 days, while the transport altitudes over the ocean ranged from 2-8 km, but were typically less than 3 km. In three of the case studies, eastward advection and transport in a weak warm conveyor belt (WCB) airflow was responsible for the export of North American emissions into the FT, while transport in the FT was governed by easterly winds driven by the Azores/Bermuda High (ABH) and transient northerly lows. In the fourth case study, North American emissions were lofted to 6-8 km in a WCB before being entrained in the same cyclone's dry airstream and transported down to the observatory. The results of this study show that the lower marine FT may provide an important transport environment where O3 production may continue, in contrast to transport in the marine boundary layer, where O3 destruction is believed to dominate. The second phase of the study presented here focused on improving the analysis methods that are available with LPDMs. While LPDMs are popular and useful for the analysis of atmospheric trace gas measurements, identifying the transport pathway of emissions from their source to a receptor (the Pico Mountain observatory in our case) using the standard gridded model output, particularly during complex meteorological scenarios can be difficult can be difficult or impossible. The transport study in phase 1 was limited to only 1 month out of more than 3 years of available data and included only 4 case studies out of the 16 events specifically due to this confounding factor. The second phase of this study addressed this difficulty by presenting a method to clearly and easily identify the pathway taken by only those emissions that arrive at a receptor at a particular time, by combining the standard gridded output from forward (i.e., concentrations) and backward (i.e., residence time) LPDM simulations, greatly simplifying similar analyses. The ability of the method to successfully determine the source-to-receptor pathway, restoring this Lagrangian information that is lost when the data are gridded, is proven by comparing the pathway determined from this method with the particle trajectories from both the forward and backward models. A sample analysis is also presented, demonstrating that this method is more accurate and easier to use than existing methods using standard LPDM products. Finally, we discuss potential future work that would be possible by combining the backward LPDM simulation with gridded data from other sources (e.g., chemical transport models) to obtain a Lagrangian sampling of the air that will eventually arrive at a receptor.

Effects of Chemical Deicers on Amphibian Communites

Roads and highways present a unique challenge to wildlife as they exhibit substantial impacts on the surrounding ecosystem through the interruption of a number of ecological processes. With new roads added to the national highway system every year, an understanding of these impacts is required for effective mitigation of potential environmental impacts. A major contributor to these negative effects is the deposition of chemicals used in winter deicing activities to nearby surface waters. These chemicals often vary in composition and may affect freshwater species differently. The negative impacts of widespread deposition of sodium chloride (NaCl) have prompted a search for an `environmentally friendly' alternative. However, little research has investigated the potential environmental effects of widespread use of these alternatives. Herein, I detail the results of laboratory tests and field surveys designed to determine the impacts of road salt (NaCl) and other chemical deicers on amphibian communities in Michigan's Upper Peninsula. Using larval amphibians I demonstrate the lethal impacts of a suite of chemical deicers on this sensitive, freshwater species. Larval wood frogs (Lithobates sylvatica) were tolerant of short-term (96 hours) exposure to urea (CH4N2O), sodium chloride (NaCl), and magnesium chloride (MgCl2). However, these larvae were very sensitive to acetate products (C8H12CaMgO8, CH3COOK) and calcium chloride (CaCl2). These differences in tolerance suggest that certain deicers may be more harmful to amphibians than others. Secondly, I expanded this analysis to include an experiment designed to determine the sublethal effects of chronic exposure to environmentally realistic concentrations of NaCl on two unique amphibian species, L. sylvatica and green frogs (L. clamitans). L. sylvatica tend to breed in small, ephemeral wetlands and metamorphose within a single season. However, L. clamitans breed primarily in more permanent wetlands and often remain as tadpoles for one year or more. These species employ different life history strategies in this region which may influence their response to chronic NaCl exposure. Both species demonstrated potentially harmful effects on individual fitness. L. sylvatica larvae had a high incidence of edema suggesting the NaCl exposure was a significant physiologic stressor to these larvae. L. clamitans larvae reduced tail length during their exposure which may affect adult fitness of these individuals. In order to determine the risk local amphibians face when using these roadside pools, I conducted a survey of the spatial distribution of chloride in the three northernmost counties of Michigan. This area receives a relatively low amount of NaCl which is confined to state and federal highways. The chloride concentrations in this region were much lower than those in urban systems; however, amphibians breeding in the local area may encounter harmful chloride levels arising from temporal variations in hydroperiods. Spatial variation of chloride levels suggests the road-effect zone for amphibians may be as large as 1000 m from a salt-treated highway. Lastly, I performed an analysis of the use of specific conductance to predict chloride concentrations in natural surface water bodies. A number of studies have used this regression to predict chloride concentrations from measurements of specific conductance. This method is often chosen in the place of ion chromatography due to budget and time constraints. However, using a regression method to characterize this relationship does not result in accurate chloride ion concentration estimates.

CHARACTERIZING THE FIRST HISTORIC ERUPTION OF NABRO, ERITREA: INSIGHTS FROM THERMAL AND UV REMOTE SENSING

June 2011 saw the first historic eruption of Nabro volcano, one of an ongoing sequence of eruptions in the Afar-Red Sea region since 2005. It halted air travel in northern Africa, contaminated food and water sources, and displaced thousands from their homes. Due to its remote location, little was known about this event in terms of the quantity of erupted products and the timing and mechanisms of their emplacement. Geographic isolation, previous quiescence and regional civil unrest meant that this volcano was effectively unmonitored at the time of eruption, and opportunities for field study are limited. Using free, publicly available satellite data, I examined rates of lava effusion and SO2 emission in order to quantify the amount of erupted products and understand the temporal evolution of the eruption, as well as explore what information can be gleaned about eruption mechanisms using remote sensing data. These data revealed a bimodal eruption, beginning with explosive activity marked by high SO2 emission totalling 1824 - 2299 KT, and extensive ash fall of 270 - 440 km2. This gave way to a period of rapid effusion, producing a ~17 km long lava flow, and a volume of ~22.1 x 106 m3. Mass balance between the SO2 and lava flows reveals no sulfur 'excess', suggesting that nearly all of the degassed magma was extruded. The 2011 eruption of Nabro lasted nearly 6 weeks, and may be considered the second largest historic eruption in Africa. Work such as this highlights the importance of satellite remote sensing for studying and monitoring volcanoes, particularly those in remote regions that may be otherwise inaccessible.

Induction of Microalgal Lipids for Biodiesel Production in Tandem with Sequestration of High Carbon Dioxide Concentration

There is no doubt that sufficient energy supply is indispensable for the fulfillment of our fossil fuel crises in a stainable fashion. There have been many attempts in deriving biodiesel fuel from different bioenergy crops including corn, canola, soybean, palm, sugar cane and vegetable oil. However, there are some significant challenges, including depleting feedstock supplies, land use change impacts and food use competition, which lead to high prices and inability to completely displace fossil fuel [1-2]. In recent years, use of microalgae as an alternative biodiesel feedstock has gained renewed interest as these fuels are becoming increasingly economically viable, renewable, and carbon-neutral energy sources. One reason for this renewed interest derives from its promising growth giving it the ability to meet global transport fuel demand constraints with fewer energy supplies without compromising the global food supply. In this study, Chlorella protothecoides microalgae were cultivated under different conditions to produce high-yield biomass with high lipid content which would be converted into biodiesel fuel in tandem with the mitigation of high carbon dioxide concentration. The effects of CO2 using atmospheric and 15% CO2 concentration and light intensity of 35 and 140 µmol m-2s-1 on the microalgae growth and lipid induction were studied. The approach used was to culture microalgal Chlorella protothecoides with inoculation of 1×105 cells/ml in a 250-ml Erlenmeyer flask, irradiated with cool white fluorescent light at ambient temperature. Using these conditions we were able to determine the most suitable operating conditions for cultivating the green microalgae to produce high biomass and lipids. Nile red dye was used as a hydrophobic fluorescent probe to detect the induced intracellular lipids. Also, gas chromatograph mass spectroscopy was used to determine the CO2 concentrations in each culture flask using the closed continuous loop system. The goal was to study how the 15% CO2 concentration was being used up by the microalgae during cultivation. The results show that the condition of high light intensity of 140 µmol m-2s-1 with 15% CO2 concentration obtain high cell concentration of 7 x 105 cells mL-1 after culturing Chlorella protothecoides for 9 to 10 day in both open and closed systems respectively. Higher lipid content was estimated as indicated by fluorescence intensity with 1.3 to 2.5 times CO2 reduction emitted by power plants. The particle size of Chlorella protothecoides increased as well due to induction of lipid accumulation by the cells when culture under these condition (140 µmol m-2s-1 with 15% CO2 concentration).

THE HYDROSOCIAL COSTS OF HIGH-VOLUME HYDRAULIC FRACTURING: A TALE OF TWO COUNTIES IN MICHIGAN

Although natural gas has been praised as a clean and abundant energy source, the varying impacts and uncertainties surrounding the process of extracting natural gas from unconventional sources, known as horizontal high-volume hydraulic fracturing (HVHF) or “fracking,” have raised important concerns. The practice of HVHF is expanding so quickly that the full impacts are not yet known. This thesis project, using a grounded theory methodological approach, explores the risks and benefits associated with HVHF as recognized by the residents of two Michigan counties, one that currently produces natural gas by HVHF (Crawford County) and one that does not (Barry County). Through an analysis of media content related to HVHF in each case study site and interviews with stakeholders in both counties, this study examines perceptions of risks and benefits by comparing two communities that differ in their level of experience with HVHF operations, contributing to our understanding of how perceptions of risks and benefits are shaped by natural gas development. The comparative analysis of the case study counties revealed similarities and differences between the case study counties. Overall, Barry County residents identified fewer benefits and more risks, and had stronger negative perceptions than Crawford County residents. This study contributes to the social science literature by developing a richer theoretical frame for understanding perceptions of HVHF and also shares recommendations for industry, organizations, regulators, and government leaders interested in effectively communicating with community stakeholders about the benefits and risks of HVHF.

FACTORS INFLUENCING MATERIAL LOSS DURING IRON ORE PELLET HANDLING

Iron ore concentrate pellets have the potential to fracture and abrade during transportation and handling, which produces unwanted fine particulates and dust. Consequently, pellet producers characterize the abrasion resistance of their pellets, using an Abrasion Index (AI), to indicate whether their products will produce unacceptable levels of fines. However, no one has ever investigated whether the AI correlates to pellet dustiness. During the course of this research, we investigated the relationship between AI and iron ore concentrate pellet dustiness using a wide range of industrial and laboratory pellet samples. The results showed that, in general, AI can be used to indicate high levels of dust. However, for good-quality pellets, there was no correlation between the two. Thus, dust generation from shipping and handling pellets will depend on the quantity of pellets handled and how much they are handled. These results also showed that the type of industrial furnace used to harden iron ore concentrate pellets may affect their fines generation and potential dustiness.

HIGH VOLTAGE ELECTROPHORETIC DEPOSITION FOR ELECTROCHEMICAL ENERGY STORAGE AND OTHER APPLICATIONS

High voltage electrophoretic deposition (HVEPD) has been developed as a novel technique to obtain vertically aligned forests of one-dimensional nanomaterials for efficient energy storage. The ability to control and manipulate nanomaterials is critical for their effective usage in a variety of applications. Oriented structures of one-dimensional nanomaterials provide a unique opportunity to take full advantage of their excellent mechanical and electrochemical properties. However, it is still a significant challenge to obtain such oriented structures with great process flexibility, ease of processing under mild conditions and the capability to scale up, especially in context of efficient device fabrication and system packaging. This work presents HVEPD as a simple, versatile and generic technique to obtain vertically aligned forests of different one-dimensional nanomaterials on flexible, transparent and scalable substrates. Improvements on material chemistry and reduction of contact resistance have enabled the fabrication of high power supercapacitor electrodes using the HVEPD method. The investigations have also paved the way for further enhancements of performance by employing hybrid material systems and AC/DC pulsed deposition. Multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) were used as the starting material to demonstrate the HVEPD technique. A comprehensive study of the key parameters was conducted to better understand the working mechanism of the HVEPD process. It has been confirmed that HVEPD was enabled by three key factors: high deposition voltage for alignment, low dispersion concentration to avoid aggregation and simultaneous formation of holding layer by electrodeposition for reinforcement of nanoforests. A set of suitable parameters were found to obtain vertically aligned forests of MWCNTs. Compared with their randomly oriented counterparts, the aligned MWCNT forests showed better electrochemical performance, lower electrical resistance and a capability to achieve superhydrophpbicity, indicating their potential in a broad range of applications. The versatile and generic nature of the HVEPD process has been demonstrated by achieving deposition on flexible and transparent substrates, as well as aligned forests of manganese dioxide (MnO2) nanorods. A continuous roll-printing HVEPD approach was then developed to obtain aligned MWCNT forest with low contact resistance on large, flexible substrates. Such large-scale electrodes showed no deterioration in electrochemical performance and paved the way for practical device fabrication. The effect of a holding layer on the contact resistance between aligned MWCNT forests and the substrate was studied to improve electrochemical performance of such electrodes. It was found that a suitable precursor salt like nickel chloride could be used to achieve a conductive holding layer which helped to significantly reduce the contact resistance. This in turn enhanced the electrochemical performance of the electrodes. High-power scalable redox capacitors were then prepared using HVEPD. Very high power/energy densities and excellent cyclability have been achieved by synergistically combining hydrothermally synthesized, highly crystalline α-MnO2 nanorods, vertically aligned forests and reduced contact resistance. To further improve the performance, hybrid electrodes have been prepared in the form of vertically aligned forest of MWCNTs with branches of α-MnO2 nanorods on them. Large- scale electrodes with such hybrid structures were manufactured using continuous HVEPD and characterized, showing further improved power and energy densities. The alignment quality and density of MWCNT forests were also improved by using an AC/DC pulsed deposition technique. In this case, AC voltage was first used to align the MWCNTs, followed by immediate DC voltage to deposit the aligned MWCNTs along with the conductive holding layer. Decoupling of alignment from deposition was proven to result in better alignment quality and higher electrochemical performance.

Determing the Effect of Thermal Treatment Timing on Ultra-High Performance Concrete Beams

The loss of prestressing force over time influences the long-term deflection of the prestressed concrete element. Prestress losses are inherently complex due to the interaction of concrete creep, concrete shrinkage, and steel relaxation. Implementing advanced materials such as ultra-high performance concrete (UHPC) further complicates the estimation of prestress losses because of the changes in material models dependent on curing regime. Past research shows compressive creep is "locked in" when UHPC cylinders are subjected to thermal treatment before being loaded in compression. However, the current precasting manufacturing process would typically load the element (through prestressing strand release from the prestressing bed) before the element would be taken to the curing facility. Members of many ages are stored until curing could be applied to all of them at once. This research was conducted to determine the impact of variable curing times for UHPC on the prestress losses, and hence deflections. Three UHPC beams, a rectangular section, a modified bulb tee section, and a pi-girder, were assessed for losses and deflections using an incremental time step approach and material models specific to UHPC based on compressive creep and shrinkage testing. Results show that although it is important for prestressed UHPC beams to be thermally treated, to "lock in" material properties, the timing of thermal treatment leads to negligible differences in long-term deflections. Results also show that for UHPC elements that are thermally treated, changes in deflection are caused only by external loads because prestress losses are "locked-in" following thermal treatment.