Volcanic processes and human exposure as elements to build a risk model for Volcan de Fuego, Guatemala

The activity of Fuego volcano during the 1999 - 2013 eruptive episode is studied through field, remote sensing and observatory records. Mapping of the deposits allows quantifying the erupted volumes and areas affected by the largest eruptions during this period. A wide range of volcanic processes results in a diversity of products and associated deposits, including minor airfall tephra, rockfall avalanches, lava flows, and pyroclastic flows. The activity can be characterized by long term, low level background activity, and sporadic larger explosive eruptions. Although the background activity erupts lava and ash at a low rate (~ 0.1 m3/s), the persistence of such activity over time results in a significant contribution (~ 30%) to the eruption budget during the studied period. Larger eruptions produced the majority of the volume of products during the studied period, mainly during three large events (May 21, 1999, June 29, 2003, and September 13, 2012), mostly in the form of pyroclastic flows. A total volume of ~ 1.4 x 108 m3 was estimated from the mapped deposits and the estimated background eruption rate. Posterior remobilization of pyroclastic flow material by stream erosion in the highly confined Barranca channels leads to lahar generation, either by normal rainfall, or by extreme rainfall events. A reassessment of the types of products and volumes erupted during the decade of 1970's allows comparing the activity happening since 1999 with the older activity, and suggests that many of the eruptive phenomena at Fuego may have similar mechanisms, despite the differences in scale between. The deposits of large pyroclastic flows erupted during the 1970's are remarkably similar in appearance to the deposit of pyroclastic flows from the 1999 - 2013 period, despite their much larger volume; this is also the case for prehistoric eruptions. Radiocarbon dating of pyroclastic flow deposits suggests that Fuego has produced large eruptions many times during the last ~ 2 ka, including larger eruptions during the last 500 years, which has important hazard implications. A survey was conducted among the local residents living near to the volcano, about their expectations of possible future crises. The results show that people are aware of the risk they could face in case of a large eruption, and therefore they are willing to evacuate in such case. However, their decision to evacuate may also be influenced by the conditions in which the evacuation could take place. If the evacuation represents a potential loss of their livelihood or property they will be more hesitant to leave their villages during a large eruption. The prospect of facing hardship conditions during the evacuation and in the shelters may further cause reluctance to evacuate. A short discussion on some of the issues regarding risk assessment and management through an early warning system is presented in the last chapter.

A NATURALISTIC COMPUTATIONAL MODEL OF HUMAN BEHAVIOR IN NAVIGATION AND SEARCH TASKS

Planning, navigation, and search are fundamental human cognitive abilities central to spatial problem solving in search and rescue, law enforcement, and military operations. Despite a wealth of literature concerning naturalistic spatial problem solving in animals, literature on naturalistic spatial problem solving in humans is comparatively lacking and generally conducted by separate camps among which there is little crosstalk. Addressing this deficiency will allow us to predict spatial decision making in operational environments, and understand the factors leading to those decisions. The present dissertation is comprised of two related efforts, (1) a set of empirical research studies intended to identify characteristics of planning, execution, and memory in naturalistic spatial problem solving tasks, and (2) a computational modeling effort to develop a model of naturalistic spatial problem solving. The results of the behavioral studies indicate that problem space hierarchical representations are linear in shape, and that human solutions are produced according to multiple optimization criteria. The Mixed Criteria Model presented in this dissertation accounts for global and local human performance in a traditional and naturalistic Traveling Salesman Problem. The results of the empirical and modeling efforts hold implications for basic and applied science in domains such as problem solving, operations research, human-computer interaction, and artificial intelligence.

DEVELOPMENT OF A 2-DIMENSIONAL FINITE VOLUME MODEL TO ASSESS HYDRODYNAMIC AND MICROBIAL CONTROLS ON DNAPL DISSOLUTION AND DETOXIFICATION

Tetrachloroethene (PCE) and trichloroethene (TCE) form dense non-aqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs), which are persistent groundwater contaminants. DNAPL dissolution can be "bioenhanced" via dissolved contaminant biodegradation at the DNAPL-water interface. This research hypothesized that: (1) competitive interactions between different dehalorespiring strains can significantly impact the bioenhancement effect, and extent of PCE dechlorination; and (2) hydrodynamics will affect the outcome of competition and the potential for bioenhancement and detoxification. A two-dimensional coupled flowtransport model was developed, with a DNAPL pool source and multiple microbial species. In the scenario presented, Dehalococcoides mccartyi 195 competes with Desulfuromonas michiganensis for the electron acceptors PCE and TCE. Simulations under biostimulation and low velocity (vx) conditions suggest that the bioenhancement with Dsm. michiganensis alone was modestly increased by Dhc. mccartyi 195. However, the presence of Dhc. mccartyi 195 enhanced the extent of PCE transformation. Hydrodynamic conditions impacted the results by changing the dominant population under low and high vx conditions.

The Planned and the Emergent: An Alternative Model of Learning and Literacy

Within academic institutions, writing centers are uniquely situated, socially rich sites for exploring learning and literacy. I examine the work of the Michigan Tech Writing Center's UN 1002 World Cultures study teams primarily because student participants and Writing Center coaches are actively engaged in structuring their own learning and meaning-making processes. My research reveals that learning is closely linked to identity formation and leading the teams is an important component of the coaches' educational experiences. I argue that supporting this type of learning requires an expanded understanding of literacy and significant changes to how learning environments are conceptualized and developed. This ethnographic study draws on data collected from recordings and observations of one semester of team sessions, my own experiences as a team coach and UN 1002 teaching assistant, and interviews with Center coaches prior to their graduation. I argue that traditional forms of assessment and analysis emerging from individualized instruction models of learning cannot fully account for the dense configurations of social interactions identified in the Center's program. Instead, I view the Center as an open system and employ social theories of learning and literacy to uncover how the negotiation of meaning in one context influences and is influenced by structures and interactions within as well as beyond its boundaries. I focus on the program design, its enaction in practice, and how engagement in this type of writing center work influences coaches' learning trajectories. I conclude that, viewed as participation in a community of practice, the learning theory informing the program design supports identity formation —a key aspect of learning as argued by Etienne Wenger (1998). The findings of this study challenge misconceptions of peer learning both in writing centers and higher education that relegate peer tutoring to the role of support for individualized models of learning. Instead, this dissertation calls for consideration of new designs that incorporate peer learning as an integral component. Designing learning contexts that cultivate and support the formation of new identities is complex, involves a flexible and opportunistic design structure, and requires the availability of multiple forms of participation and connections across contexts.

IMPROVEMENTS IN SUSTAINABILITY OF GRAVITY-FED WATER SYSTEMS IN THE COMARCA NGÄBE-BUGLÉ, PANAMA: SPRING CAPTURES AND CIRCUIT RIDER MODEL

Gravity-flow aqueducts are used to bring clean water from mountain springs in the Comarca Ngäbe-Buglé, Panama, to the homes of the indigenous people who reside there. Spring captures enclose a spring to direct the flow of water into the transmission line. Seepage contact springs are most common, with water appearing above either hard basalt bedrock or a dense clay layer. Spring flows vary dramatically during wet and dry seasons, and discharge points of springs can shift, sometimes enough to impact the capture structure and its ability to properly collect all of the available water. Traditionally, spring captures are concrete boxes. The spring boxes observed by the author were dilapidated or out of alignment with the spring itself, only capturing part of the discharge. An improved design approach was developed that mimics the terrain surrounding the spring source to address these issues. Over the course of a year, three different spring sites were evaluated, and spring captures were designed and constructed based on the new approach. Spring flow data from each case study demonstrate increased flow capture in the improved structures. Rural water systems, including spring captures, can be sustainably maintained by the Circuit Rider model, a technical support system in which technical assistance is provided for the operation of the water systems. During 2012-2013, the author worked as a Circuit Rider and facilitated a water system improvement project while exploring methods of community empowerment to increase the capacity for system maintenance. Based on these experiences, recommendations are provided to expand the Circuit Rider model in the Comarca Ngäbe-Buglé under the Panamanian Ministry of Health’s Water and Sanitation Project (PASAP)