FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT UNDER HISTORICAL AND PREDICTED LAND USE CHANGE USING CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC MODELING

Current procedures for flood risk estimation assume flood distributions are stationary over time, meaning annual maximum flood (AMF) series are not affected by climatic variation, land use/land cover (LULC) change, or management practices. Thus, changes in LULC and climate are generally not accounted for in policy and design related to flood risk/control, and historical flood events are deemed representative of future flood risk. These assumptions need to be re-evaluated, however, as climate change and anthropogenic activities have been observed to have large impacts on flood risk in many areas. In particular, understanding the effects of LULC change is essential to the study and understanding of global environmental change and the consequent hydrologic responses. The research presented herein provides possible causation for observed nonstationarity in AMF series with respect to changes in LULC, as well as a means to assess the degree to which future LULC change will impact flood risk. Four watersheds in the Midwest, Northeastern, and Central United States were studied to determine flood risk associated with historical and future projected LULC change. Historical single framed aerial images dating back to the mid-1950s were used along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing models (SPRING and ERDAS) to create historical land use maps. The Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land Use Change (FORE-SCE) model was applied to generate future LULC maps annually from 2006 to 2100 for the conterminous U.S. based on the four IPCC-SRES future emission scenario conditions. These land use maps were input into previously calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models for two case study watersheds. In order to isolate effects of LULC change, the only variable parameter was the Runoff Curve Number associated with the land use layer. All simulations were run with daily climate data from 1978-1999, consistent with the 'base' model which employed the 1992 NLCD to represent 'current' conditions. Output daily maximum flows were converted to instantaneous AMF series and were subsequently modeled using a Log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution to evaluate flood risk. Analysis of the progression of LULC change over the historic period and associated SWAT outputs revealed that AMF magnitudes tend to increase over time in response to increasing degrees of urbanization. This is consistent with positive trends in the AMF series identified in previous studies, although there are difficulties identifying correlations between LULC change and identified change points due to large time gaps in the generated historical LULC maps, mainly caused by unavailability of sufficient quality historic aerial imagery. Similarly, increases in the mean and median AMF magnitude were observed in response to future LULC change projections, with the tails of the distributions remaining reasonably constant. FORE-SCE scenario A2 was found to have the most dramatic impact on AMF series, consistent with more extreme projections of population growth, demands for growing energy sources, agricultural land, and urban expansion, while AMF outputs based on scenario B2 showed little changes for the future as the focus is on environmental conservation and regional solutions to environmental issues.

Adaptive Sampling with Mobile Sensor Networks

Mobile sensor networks have unique advantages compared with wireless sensor networks. The mobility enables mobile sensors to flexibly reconfigure themselves to meet sensing requirements. In this dissertation, an adaptive sampling method for mobile sensor networks is presented. Based on the consideration of sensing resource constraints, computing abilities, and onboard energy limitations, the adaptive sampling method follows a down sampling scheme, which could reduce the total number of measurements, and lower sampling cost. Compressive sensing is a recently developed down sampling method, using a small number of randomly distributed measurements for signal reconstruction. However, original signals cannot be reconstructed using condensed measurements, as addressed by Shannon Sampling Theory. Measurements have to be processed under a sparse domain, and convex optimization methods should be applied to reconstruct original signals. Restricted isometry property would guarantee signals can be recovered with little information loss. While compressive sensing could effectively lower sampling cost, signal reconstruction is still a great research challenge. Compressive sensing always collects random measurements, whose information amount cannot be determined in prior. If each measurement is optimized as the most informative measurement, the reconstruction performance can perform much better. Based on the above consideration, this dissertation is focusing on an adaptive sampling approach, which could find the most informative measurements in unknown environments and reconstruct original signals. With mobile sensors, measurements are collect sequentially, giving the chance to uniquely optimize each of them. When mobile sensors are about to collect a new measurement from the surrounding environments, existing information is shared among networked sensors so that each sensor would have a global view of the entire environment. Shared information is analyzed under Haar Wavelet domain, under which most nature signals appear sparse, to infer a model of the environments. The most informative measurements can be determined by optimizing model parameters. As a result, all the measurements collected by the mobile sensor network are the most informative measurements given existing information, and a perfect reconstruction would be expected. To present the adaptive sampling method, a series of research issues will be addressed, including measurement evaluation and collection, mobile network establishment, data fusion, sensor motion, signal reconstruction, etc. Two dimensional scalar field will be reconstructed using the method proposed. Both single mobile sensors and mobile sensor networks will be deployed in the environment, and reconstruction performance of both will be compared.In addition, a particular mobile sensor, a quadrotor UAV is developed, so that the adaptive sampling method can be used in three dimensional scenarios.

DATA DRIVEN INTELLIGENT AGENT NETWORKS FOR ADAPTIVE MONITORING AND CONTROL

To analyze the characteristics and predict the dynamic behaviors of complex systems over time, comprehensive research to enable the development of systems that can intelligently adapt to the evolving conditions and infer new knowledge with algorithms that are not predesigned is crucially needed. This dissertation research studies the integration of the techniques and methodologies resulted from the fields of pattern recognition, intelligent agents, artificial immune systems, and distributed computing platforms, to create technologies that can more accurately describe and control the dynamics of real-world complex systems. The need for such technologies is emerging in manufacturing, transportation, hazard mitigation, weather and climate prediction, homeland security, and emergency response. Motivated by the ability of mobile agents to dynamically incorporate additional computational and control algorithms into executing applications, mobile agent technology is employed in this research for the adaptive sensing and monitoring in a wireless sensor network. Mobile agents are software components that can travel from one computing platform to another in a network and carry programs and data states that are needed for performing the assigned tasks. To support the generation, migration, communication, and management of mobile monitoring agents, an embeddable mobile agent system (Mobile-C) is integrated with sensor nodes. Mobile monitoring agents visit distributed sensor nodes, read real-time sensor data, and perform anomaly detection using the equipped pattern recognition algorithms. The optimal control of agents is achieved by mimicking the adaptive immune response and the application of multi-objective optimization algorithms. The mobile agent approach provides potential to reduce the communication load and energy consumption in monitoring networks. The major research work of this dissertation project includes: (1) studying effective feature extraction methods for time series measurement data; (2) investigating the impact of the feature extraction methods and dissimilarity measures on the performance of pattern recognition; (3) researching the effects of environmental factors on the performance of pattern recognition; (4) integrating an embeddable mobile agent system with wireless sensor nodes; (5) optimizing agent generation and distribution using artificial immune system concept and multi-objective algorithms; (6) applying mobile agent technology and pattern recognition algorithms for adaptive structural health monitoring and driving cycle pattern recognition; (7) developing a web-based monitoring network to enable the visualization and analysis of real-time sensor data remotely. Techniques and algorithms developed in this dissertation project will contribute to research advances in networked distributed systems operating under changing environments.

Strategic Optimization Techniques For FRTU Deployment and Chip Physical Design

Combinatorial optimization is a complex engineering subject. Although formulation often depends on the nature of problems that differs from their setup, design, constraints, and implications, establishing a unifying framework is essential. This dissertation investigates the unique features of three important optimization problems that can span from small-scale design automation to large-scale power system planning: (1) Feeder remote terminal unit (FRTU) planning strategy by considering the cybersecurity of secondary distribution network in electrical distribution grid, (2) physical-level synthesis for microfluidic lab-on-a-chip, and (3) discrete gate sizing in very-large-scale integration (VLSI) circuit. First, an optimization technique by cross entropy is proposed to handle FRTU deployment in primary network considering cybersecurity of secondary distribution network. While it is constrained by monetary budget on the number of deployed FRTUs, the proposed algorithm identi?es pivotal locations of a distribution feeder to install the FRTUs in different time horizons. Then, multi-scale optimization techniques are proposed for digital micro?uidic lab-on-a-chip physical level synthesis. The proposed techniques handle the variation-aware lab-on-a-chip placement and routing co-design while satisfying all constraints, and considering contamination and defect. Last, the first fully polynomial time approximation scheme (FPTAS) is proposed for the delay driven discrete gate sizing problem, which explores the theoretical view since the existing works are heuristics with no performance guarantee. The intellectual contribution of the proposed methods establishes a novel paradigm bridging the gaps between professional communities.