STABILITY ANALYSIS AND HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF SAN VICENTE VOLCANO IN CENTRAL EL SALVADOR

Geologic hazards affect the lives of millions of people worldwide every year. El Salvador is a country that is regularly affected by natural disasters, including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and tropical storms. Additionally, rainfall-induced landslides and debris flows are a major threat to the livelihood of thousands. The San Vicente Volcano in central El Salvador has a recurring and destructive pattern of landslides and debris flows occurring on the northern slopes of the volcano. In recent memory there have been at least seven major destructive debris flows on San Vicente volcano. Despite this problem, there has been no known attempt to study the inherent stability of these volcanic slopes and to determine the thresholds of rainfall that might lead to slope instability. This thesis explores this issue and outlines a suggested method for predicting the likelihood of slope instability during intense rainfall events. The material properties obtained from a field campaign and laboratory testing were used for a 2-D slope stability analysis on a recent landslide on San Vicente volcano. This analysis confirmed that the surface materials of the volcano are highly permeable and have very low shear strength and provided insight into the groundwater table behavior during a rainstorm. The biggest factors on the stability of the slopes were found to be slope geometry, rainfall totals and initial groundwater table location. Using the results from this analysis a stability chart was created that took into account these main factors and provided an estimate of the stability of a slope in various rainfall scenarios. This chart could be used by local authorities in the event of a known extreme rainfall event to help make decisions regarding possible evacuation. Recommendations are given to improve the methodology for future application in other areas as well as in central El Salvador.

Geotechnical Data and Numerical Analysis of Edifice Collapse and Related Hazards at Pacaya Volcano, Guatemala

The continual eruptive activity, occurrence of an ancestral catastrophic collapse, and inherent geologic features of Pacaya volcano (Guatemala) demands an evaluation of potential collapse hazards. This thesis merges techniques in the field and laboratory for a better rock mass characterization of volcanic slopes and slope stability evaluation. New field geological, structural, rock mechanical and geotechnical data on Pacaya is reported and is integrated with laboratory tests to better define the physical-mechanical rock mass properties. Additionally, this data is used in numerical models for the quantitative evaluation of lateral instability of large sector collapses and shallow landslides. Regional tectonics and local structures indicate that the local stress regime is transtensional, with an ENE-WSW sigma 3 stress component. Aligned features trending NNW-SSE can be considered as an expression of this weakness zone that favors magma upwelling to the surface. Numerical modeling suggests that a large-scale collapse could be triggered by reasonable ranges of magma pressure (greater than or equal to 7.7 MPa if constant along a central dyke) and seismic acceleration (greater than or equal to 460 cm/s2), and that a layer of pyroclastic deposits beneath the edifice could have been a factor which controlled the ancestral collapse. Finally, the formation of shear cracks within zones of maximum shear strain could provide conduits for lateral flow, which would account for long lava flows erupted at lower elevations.