Price risk management in the copper market using commodity derivatives and options strategies

Metals price risk management is a key issue related to financial risk in metal markets because of uncertainty of commodity price fluctuation, exchange rate, interest rate changes and huge price risk either to metals’ producers or consumers. Thus, it has been taken into account by all participants in metal markets including metals’ producers, consumers, merchants, banks, investment funds, speculators, traders and so on. Managing price risk provides stable income for both metals’ producers and consumers, so it increases the chance that a firm will invest in attractive projects. The purpose of this research is to evaluate risk management strategies in the copper market. The main tools and strategies of price risk management are hedging and other derivatives such as futures contracts, swaps and options contracts. Hedging is a transaction designed to reduce or eliminate price risk. Derivatives are financial instruments, whose returns are derived from other financial instruments and they are commonly used for managing financial risks. Although derivatives have been around in some form for centuries, their growth has accelerated rapidly during the last 20 years. Nowadays, they are widely used by financial institutions, corporations, professional investors, and individuals. This project is focused on the over-the-counter (OTC) market and its products such as exotic options, particularly Asian options. The first part of the project is a description of basic derivatives and risk management strategies. In addition, this part discusses basic concepts of spot and futures (forward) markets, benefits and costs of risk management and risks and rewards of positions in the derivative markets. The second part considers valuations of commodity derivatives. In this part, the options pricing model DerivaGem is applied to Asian call and put options on London Metal Exchange (LME) copper because it is important to understand how Asian options are valued and to compare theoretical values of the options with their market observed values. Predicting future trends of copper prices is important and would be essential to manage market price risk successfully. Therefore, the third part is a discussion about econometric commodity models. Based on this literature review, the fourth part of the project reports the construction and testing of an econometric model designed to forecast the monthly average price of copper on the LME. More specifically, this part aims at showing how LME copper prices can be explained by means of a simultaneous equation structural model (two-stage least squares regression) connecting supply and demand variables. A simultaneous econometric model for the copper industry is built: {█(Q_t^D=e^((-5.0485))∙P_((t-1))^((-0.1868) )∙〖GDP〗_t^((1.7151) )∙e^((0.0158)∙〖IP〗_t ) @Q_t^S=e^((-3.0785))∙P_((t-1))^((0.5960))∙T_t^((0.1408))∙P_(OIL(t))^((-0.1559))∙〖USDI〗_t^((1.2432))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((-0.0561))@Q_t^D=Q_t^S )┤ P_((t-1))^CU=e^((-2.5165))∙〖GDP〗_t^((2.1910))∙e^((0.0202)∙〖IP〗_t )∙T_t^((-0.1799))∙P_(OIL(t))^((0.1991))∙〖USDI〗_t^((-1.5881))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((0.0717) Where, Q_t^D and Q_t^Sare world demand for and supply of copper at time t respectively. P(t-1) is the lagged price of copper, which is the focus of the analysis in this part. GDPt is world gross domestic product at time t, which represents aggregate economic activity. In addition, industrial production should be considered here, so the global industrial production growth that is noted as IPt is included in the model. Tt is the time variable, which is a useful proxy for technological change. A proxy variable for the cost of energy in producing copper is the price of oil at time t, which is noted as POIL(t ) . USDIt is the U.S. dollar index variable at time t, which is an important variable for explaining the copper supply and copper prices. At last, LIBOR(t-6) is the 6-month lagged 1-year London Inter bank offering rate of interest. Although, the model can be applicable for different base metals' industries, the omitted exogenous variables such as the price of substitute or a combined variable related to the price of substitutes have not been considered in this study. Based on this econometric model and using a Monte-Carlo simulation analysis, the probabilities that the monthly average copper prices in 2006 and 2007 will be greater than specific strike price of an option are defined. The final part evaluates risk management strategies including options strategies, metal swaps and simple options in relation to the simulation results. The basic options strategies such as bull spreads, bear spreads and butterfly spreads, which are created by using both call and put options in 2006 and 2007 are evaluated. Consequently, each risk management strategy in 2006 and 2007 is analyzed based on the day of data and the price prediction model. As a result, applications stemming from this project include valuing Asian options, developing a copper price prediction model, forecasting and planning, and decision making for price risk management in the copper market.

EPA's Council for Regulatory Environmental Modeling : a case study of science policy implementation

As environmental problems became more complex, policy and regulatory decisions become far more difficult to make. The use of science has become an important practice in the decision making process of many federal agencies. Many different types of scientific information are used to make decisions within the EPA, with computer models becoming especially important. Environmental models are used throughout the EPA in a variety of contexts and their predictive capacity has become highly valued in decision making. The main focus of this research is to examine the EPA’s Council for Regulatory Modeling (CREM) as a case study in addressing science issues, particularly models, in government agencies. Specifically, the goal was to answer the following questions: What is the history of the CREM and how can this information shed light on the process of science policy implementation? What were the goals of implementing the CREM? Were these goals reached and how have they changed? What have been the impediments that the CREM has faced and why did these impediments occur? The three main sources of information for this research came from observations during summer employment with the CREM, document review and supplemental interviews with CREM participants and other members of the modeling community. Examining a history of modeling at the EPA, as well as a history of the CREM, provides insight into the many challenges that are faced when implementing science policy and science policy programs. After examining the many impediments that the CREM has faced in implementing modeling policies, it was clear that the impediments fall into two separate categories, classic and paradoxical. The classic impediments include the more standard impediments to science policy implementation that might be found in any regulatory environment, such as lack of resources and changes in administration. Paradoxical impediments are cyclical in nature, with no clear solution, such as balancing top-down versus bottom-up initiatives and coping with differing perceptions. These impediments, when not properly addressed, severely hinder the ability for organizations to successfully implement science policy.

Federal and state policy influence on woody biomass utilization

A considerable portion of public lands in the United States is at risk of uncharacteristically severe wildfires due to a history of fire suppression. Wildfires already have detrimental impacts on the landscape and on communities in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) due to unnatural and overstocked forests. Strategies to mitigate wildfire risk include mechanical thinning and prescribed burning in areas with high wildfire risk. The material removed is often of little or no economic value. Woody biomass utilization (WBU) could offset the costs of hazardous fuel treatments if removed material could be used for wood products, heat, or electricity production. However, barriers due to transportation costs, removal costs, and physical constraints (such as steep slopes) hinder woody biomass utilization. Various federal and state policies attempt to overcome these barriers. WBU has the potential to aid in wildfire mitigation and meet growing state mandates for renewable energy. This research utilizes interview data from individuals involved with on-the-ground woody biomass removal and utilization to determine how federal and state policies influence woody biomass utilization. Results suggest that there is not one over-arching policy that hinders or promotes woody biomass utilization, but rather woody biomass utilization is hindered by organizational constraints related to time, cost, and quality of land management agencies’ actions. However, the use of stewardship contracting (a hybrid timber sale and service contract) shows promise for increased WBU, especially in states with favorable tax policies and renewable energy mandates. Policy recommendations to promote WBU include renewal of stewardship contracting legislations and a re-evaluation of land cover types suited for WBU. Potential future policies to consider include the indirect role of carbon dioxide emission reduction activities to promote wood energy and future impacts of air quality regulations.

Afghanistan connection : heroin production, distribution, and consumption

Heroin prices are a reflection of supply and demand, and similar to any other market, profits motivate participation. The intent of this research is to examine the change in Afghan opium production due to political conflict affecting Europe’s heroin market and government policies. If the Taliban remain in power, or a new Afghan government is formed, the changes will affect the heroin market in Europe to a certain degree. In the heroin market, the degree of change is dependent on many socioeconomic forces such as law enforcement, corruption, and proximity to Afghanistan. An econometric model that examines the degree of these socioeconomic effects has not been applied to the heroin trade in Afghanistan before. This research uses a two-stage least squares econometric model to reveal the supply and demand of heroin in 36 different countries from the Middle East to Western Europe in 2008. An application of the two-stage least squares model to the heroin market in Europe will attempt to predict the socioeconomic consequences of Afghanistan opium production.

Financial decision making about found oil and gas in Ghana : real options vs. traditional methods

This research is a study of the use of capital budgeting methods for investment decisions. It uses both the traditional methods and the newly introduced approach called the real options analysis to make a decision. The research elucidates how capital budgeting can be done when analysts encounter projects with high uncertainty and are capital intensive, for example oil and gas production. It then uses the oil and gas find in Ghana as a case study to support its argument. For a clear understanding a thorough literature review was done, which highlights the advantages and disadvantages of both methods. The revenue that the project will generate and the costs of production were obtained from the predictions by analysts from GNPC and compared to others experts’ opinion. It then applied both the traditional and real option valuation on the oil and gas find in Ghana to determine the project’s feasibility. Although, there are some short falls in real option analysis that are presented in this research, it is still helpful in valuing projects that are capital intensive with high volatility due to the strategic flexibility management possess in their decision making. It also suggests that traditional methods of evaluation should still be maintained and be used to value projects that have no options or those with options yet the options do not have significant impact on the project. The research points out the economic ripples the production of oil and gas will have on Ghana’s economy should the project be undertaken. These ripples include economic growth, massive job creation and reduction of the balance of trade deficit for the country. The long run effect is an eventually improvement of life of the citizens. It is also belief that the production of gas specifically can be used to generate electricity in Ghana which would enable the country to have a more stable and reliable power source necessary to attract more foreign direct investment.

Economic sustainability of the Flambeau Mine Ladysmith, Wisconsin

Today sustainable development is a very pertinent issue. Communities do not want companies, specifically mining companies, to deplete a natural resource and leave. The goal is to minimize the negative impacts of mining and the boom/bust cycles of natural resource extraction. In this study a three part framework was developed to analyze the sustainability of the Flambeau Mine in Ladysmith, Wisconsin. The first and second part dealt with an in-depth local and regional analysis and whether the community was developing within its own vision. The third part used nine sustainability measures including: 1. Need Present Generation 2. Future Need 3. Acceptable Legacy 4. Full-Cost 5. Contribution to Economic Development 6. Equity 7. Consent 8. Respect for Ecological Limits, Maintenance of Ecological Integrity and Landscape Requirements 9. Offsetting Restoration This study concluded that the Flambeau Mine was sustainable relative to the first two criteria and that it can be considered mostly sustainable relative to the nine criteria. Overall it can be stated that the Flambeau Mine was a beneficial project to the Ladysmith Wisconsin area. Additionally it appeared to decrease the public’s negative perception of mining. Recommendations for future analytical work are made. Suggestions are made as to how mining companies could increase the potential for the attainment of sustainability in projects. It is recommended that this framework be used by other industries.

Car ownership modeling and forecasts for China

A great increase of private car ownership took place in China from 1980 to 2009 with the development of the economy. To explain the relationship between car ownership and economic and social changes, an ordinary least squares linear regression model is developed using car ownership per capita as the dependent variable with GDP, savings deposits and highway mileages per capita as the independent variables. The model is tested and corrected for econometric problems such as spurious correlation and cointegration. Finally, the regression model is used to project oil consumption by the Chinese transportation sector through 2015. The result shows that about 2.0 million barrels of oil will be consumed by private cars in conservative scenario, and about 2.6 million barrels of oil per day in high case scenario in 2015. Both of them are much higher than the consumption level of 2009, which is 1.9 million barrels per day. It also shows that the annual growth rate of oil demand by transportation is 2.7% - 3.1% per year in the conservative scenario, and 6.9% - 7.3% per year in the high case forecast scenario from 2010 to 2015. As a result, actions like increasing oil efficiency need to be taken to deal with challenges of the increasing demand for oil.

Nongovernmental organization staff views of global water privatization

More than 1 billion people lack access to clean water and proper sanitation. As part of efforts to solve this problem, there is a growing shift from public to private water management led by The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This shift has inspired much related research. Researchers have assessed water privatization related perceptions of consumers, government officials, and multinational company agents. This thesis presents results of a study of nongovernmental (NGO) staff perceptions of water privatization. Although NGOs are important actors in sustainable water related development through water provision, we have little understanding of their perceptions of water privatization and how it impacts their activities. My goal was to fill this gap. I sampled international and national development NGOs with water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) foci. I conducted 28 interviews between January and June of 2011 with staff in key positions including water policy analysts, program officers, and project coordinators. Their perceptions of water privatization were mixed. I also found that local water privatization in most cases does not influence NGO decisions to conduct projects in a region. I found that development NGO staff base their beliefs about water privatization on a mix of personal experience and media coverage. My findings have important implications for the WASH sector as we work to solve the worsening global water access crisis.

Economic viability of shale gas production in the Marcellus Shale; indicated by production rates, costs and current natural gas prices

The U.S. natural gas industry has changed because of the recent ability to produce natural gas from unconventional shale deposits. One of the largest and most important deposits is the Marcellus Shale. Hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have allowed for the technical feasibility of production, but concerns exist regarding the economics of shale gas production. These concerns are related to limited production and economic data for shale gas wells, declines in the rates of production, falling natural gas prices, oversupply issues coupled with slow growth in U.S. natural gas demand, and rising production costs. An attempt to determine profitability was done through the economic analysis of an average shale gas well using data that is representative of natural gas production from 2009 to 2011 in the Marcellus Shale. Despite the adverse conditions facing the shale gas industry it is concluded from the results of this analysis that a shale gas well in the Marcellus Shale is profitable based on NPV, IRR and breakeven price calculations.

Perceptions of water conditions and management in the Sonora River Basin, Sonora, Mexico

The effects of climate change are expected to be very severe in arid regions. The Sonora River Basin, in the northwestern state of Sonora, Mexico, is likely to be severely affected. Some of the anticipated effects include precipitation variability, intense storm events, higher overall temperatures, and less available water. In addition, population in Sonora, specifically the capital city of Hermosillo, is increasing at a 1.5% rate and current populations are near 700,000. With the reduction in water availability and an increase in population, Sonora, Mexico is expected to experience severe water resource issues in the near future. In anticipation of these changes, research is being conducted in an attempt to improve water management in the Sonora River Basin, located in the northwestern part of Sonora. This research involves participatory modeling techniques designed to increase water manager awareness of hydrological models and their use as integrative tools for water resource management. This study was conducted as preliminary research for the participatory modeling grant in order to gather useful information on the population being studied. This thesis presents research from thirty-four in-depth interviews with water managers, citizens, and agricultural producers in Sonora, Mexico. Data was collected on perceptions of water quantity and quality in the basin, thoughts on current water management practices, perceptions of climate change and its management, experience with, knowledge of, and trust in hydrological models as water management tools. Results showed that the majority of interviewees thought there was not enough water to satisfy their daily needs. Most respondents also agreed that the water available was of good quality, but that current management of water resources was ineffective. Nearly all interviewees were aware of climate change and thought it to be anthropogenic. May reported experiencing higher temperatures, precipitation changes, and higher water scarcity and attributed those fluctuations to climate change. 65% of interviewees were at least somewhat familiar with hydrological models, though only 28% had ever used them or their output. Even with model usage results being low, 100% of respondents believed hydrological models to be very useful water management tools. Understanding how water, climate change, and hydrological models are perceived by this population of people is essential to improving their water management practices in the face of climate change.

U.S. utilities' experiences with the implementation of energy efficiency programs

In the U.S., many electric utility companies are offering demand-side management (DSM) programs to their customers as ways to save money and energy. However, it is challenging to compare these programs between utility companies throughout the U.S. because of the variability of state energy policies. For example, some states in the U.S. have deregulated electricity markets and others do not. In addition, utility companies within a state differ depending on ownership and size. This study examines 12 utilities’ experiences with DSM programs and compares the programs’ annual energy savings results that the selected utilities reported to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The 2009 EIA data suggests that DSM program effectiveness is not significantly affected by electricity market deregulation or utility ownership. However, DSM programs seem to generally be more effective when administered by utilities located in states with energy savings requirements and DSM program mandates.

Reflection, refraction, and rejection : copper smelting heritage and the execution of environmental policy

This dissertation examines the global technological and environmental history of copper smelting and the conflict that developed between historic preservation and environmental remediation at major copper smelting sites in the United States after their productive periods ended. Part I of the dissertation is a synthetic overview of the history of copper smelting and its environmental impact. After reviewing the basic metallurgy of copper ores, the dissertation contains successive chapters on the history of copper smelting to 1640, culminating in the so-called German, or Continental, processing system; on the emergence of the rival Welsh system during the British industrial revolution; and on the growth of American dominance in copper production the late 19th and early 20th centuries. The latter chapter focuses, in particular, on three of the most important early American copper districts: Michigan’s Keweenaw Peninsula, Tennessee’s Copper Basin, and Butte-Anaconda, Montana. As these three districts went into decline and ultimately out of production, they left a rich industrial heritage and significant waste and pollution problems generated by increasingly more sophisticated technologies capable of commercially processing steadily growing volumes of decreasingly rich ores. Part II of the dissertation looks at the conflict between historic preservation and environmental remediation that emerged locally and nationally in copper districts as they went into decline and eventually ceased production. Locally, former copper mining communities often split between those who wished to commemorate a region’s past importance and develop heritage tourism, and local developers who wished to clear up and clean out old industrial sites for other purposes. Nationally, Congress passed laws in the 1960s and 1970s mandating the preservation of historical resources (National Historic Preservation Act) and laws mandating the cleanup of contaminated landscapes (CERCLA, or Superfund), objectives sometimes in conflict – especially in the case of copper smelting sites. The dissertation devotes individual chapters to the conflicts that developed between environmental remediation, particularly involving the Environmental Protection Agency and the heritage movement in the Tennessee, Montana, and Michigan copper districts. A concluding chapter provides a broad model to illustrate the relationship between industrial decline, federal environmental remediation activities, and the growth of heritage consciousness in former copper mining and smelting areas, analyzes why the outcome varied in the three areas, and suggests methods for dealing with heritage-remediation issues to minimize conflict and maximize heritage preservation.

Public preferences of the Great Lakes Environment : a Lake Michigan pilot study

The Great Lakes watershed is home to over 40 million people, and the health of the Great Lakes ecosystem is vital to the overall economic, societal, and environmental health of the U.S. and Canada. However, environmental issues related to them are sometimes overlooked. Policymakers and the public face the challenges of balancing economic benefits with the need to conserve and/or replenish regional natural resources to ensure long term prosperity. From the literature review, nine critical stressors of ecological services were delineated, which include pollution and contamination, agricultural erosion, non-native species, degraded recreational resources, loss of wetlands habitat, climate change, risk of clean water shortage, vanishing sand dunes, and population overcrowding; this list was validated through a series of stakeholder discussions and focus groups in Grand Rapids. Focus groups were conducted in Grand Rapids to examine the awareness of, concern with, and willingness to expend resources on these stressors. Stressors that the respondents have direct contact with tend to be the most important. The focus group results show that concern related to pollution and contamination is much higher than for any of the other stressors. Low responses to climate change result in recommendations for outreach programs.

ISO 14001 in India: More than a certificate on the wall?

The growth of ISO 14001 certificates worldwide has led to much research on the role of voluntary standards in improving the environmental impacts of industry. Most of this research, however, has focused on industrialized countries, with very little research examining the effects of ISO 14001 and other voluntary initiatives in the developing world. This is especially unfortunate because it is in these very countries that proponents of ISO 14001 claim the largest benefits of the standard will occur, by helping polluting industries improve performance and by assisting environmental regulators in enforcing laws more effectively. Indian industries have begun adopting ISO 14001 at an accelerating pace, but there is little available information on what this means for the environmental performance of Indian firms. The research described here closes this gap by exploring the reasons for the increasing popularity of ISO 14001 in India, the ways in which firms use the standard and the benefits they obtain from it. Findings suggest that while the processoriented approach of ISO 14001 does offer important benefits, changing market demands towards cheaper certification and away from rigorous EMS implementation have devalued the standard for those interested in using it as an indicator of a firm’s environmental performance.

Peer influence in NIPF landowner decision making in the western Upper Peninsula, Michigan

Non-industrial private forest (NIPF) owners hold the largest amount of privately owned forest in the United States. Activities undertaken by NIPF owners have the potential to drastically impact the forested landscape of the United States, along with its associated biodiversity and ecological services. Many government sanctioned programs are in place to discourage the conversion of forest to other uses as well as to ensure sustainable management and a continuous supply of timber. Reaching NIPF owners with information about these programs and other management information is therefore important to the forests of the United States. This thesis presents research on how the NIPF owners of the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan communicate about forest management with neighboring NIPF owners. The data were obtained from 34 telephone interviews with owners of NIPF properties in the western Upper Peninsula. The goal of this research was to understand the way information moves through NIPF owner dominated landscapes in order to provide recommendations to policy implementers on how to best reach NIPF owners with information. Understanding where NIPF owners get information about management and landowner assistance programs is vital to ensuring a sustainably managed forest landscape in the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan.