DECOMPOSITION OF REGRESSION ESTIMATORS TO EXPLORE THE INFLUENCE OF "UNMEASURED" TIME-VARYING CONFOUNDERS

In environmental epidemiology, exposure X and health outcome Y vary in space and time. We present a method to diagnose the possible influence of unmeasured confounders U on the estimated effect of X on Y and to propose several approaches to robust estimation. The idea is to use space and time as proxy measures for the unmeasured factors U. We start with the time series case where X and Y are continuous variables at equally-spaced times and assume a linear model. We define matching estimator b(u)s that correspond to pairs of observations with specific lag u. Controlling for a smooth function of time, St, using a kernel estimator is roughly equivalent to estimating the association with a linear combination of the b(u)s with weights that involve two components: the assumptions about the smoothness of St and the normalized variogram of the X process. When an unmeasured confounder U exists, but the model otherwise correctly controls for measured confounders, the excess variation in b(u)s is evidence of confounding by U. We use the plot of b(u)s versus lag u, lagged-estimator-plot (LEP), to diagnose the influence of U on the effect of X on Y. We use appropriate linear combination of b(u)s or extrapolate to b(0) to obtain novel estimators that are more robust to the influence of smooth U. The methods are extended to time series log-linear models and to spatial analyses. The LEP plot gives us a direct view of the magnitude of the estimators for each lag u and provides evidence when models did not adequately describe the data.

Factors Influencing Spatial Variability in Nitrogen Processing in Nitrogen-Saturated Soils

Nitrogen (N) saturation is an environmental concern for forests in the eastern U.S. Although several watersheds of the Fernow Experimental Forest (FEF), West Virginia exhibit symptoms of Nsaturation, many watersheds display a high degree of spatial variability in soil N processing. This study examined the effects of temperature on net N mineralization and nitrification in N-saturatedsoils from FEF, and how these effects varied between high N-processing vs. low N-processingsoils collected from two watersheds, WS3 (fertilized with [NH4]2SO4) and WS4 (untreated control). Samples of forest floor material (O2 horizon) and mineral soil (to a 5-cm depth) were taken from three subplots within each of four plots that represented the extremes of highest and lowest ratesof net N mineralization and nitrification (hereafter, high N and low N, respectively) of untreated WS4 and N-treated WS3: control/low N, control/high N, N-treated/low N, N-treated/high N. Forest floor material was analyzed for carbon (C), lignin,and N. Subsamples of mineral soil were extractedimmediately with 1 N KCl and analyzed for NH4+and NO3– to determine preincubation levels. Extracts were also analyzed for Mg, Ca, Al, and pH. To test the hypothesis that the lack of net nitrification observed in field incubations on the untreated/low N plot was the result of absence ofnitrifier populations, we characterized the bacterial community involved in N cycling by amplification of amoA genes. Remaining soil was incubated for 28 d at three temperatures (10, 20, and30°C), followed by 1 N KCl extraction and analysis for NH4+ and NO3–. Net nitrification was essentially 100% of net N mineralization for all samples combined. Nitrification rates from lab incubation sat all temperatures supported earlier observations based on field incubations. At 30°C, rates from N- t reated/high N were three times those of N-treated/low N. Highest rates were found for untreated/high N (two times greater than those of N-treated/high N), whereas untreated/low N exhibited no net nitrification. However, soils exhibitingno net nitrification tested positive for presence of nitrifying bacteria, causing us to reject our initial hypothesis. We hypothesize that nitrifier populations in such soil are being inhibited by a combination of low Ca:Al ratios in mineral soil and allelopathic interactions with mycorrhizae of ericaceous species in the herbaceous layer.

Limitations of Remotely-sensed Aerosol as a Spatial Proxy for Fine Particulate Matter

Recent research highlights the promise of remotely-sensed aerosol optical depth (AOD) as a proxy for ground-level PM2.5. Particular interest lies in the information on spatial heterogeneity potentially provided by AOD, with important application to estimating and monitoring pollution exposure for public health purposes. Given the temporal and spatio-temporal correlations reported between AOD and PM2.5 , it is tempting to interpret the spatial patterns in AOD as reflecting patterns in PM2.5 . Here we find only limited spatial associations of AOD from three satellite retrievals with PM2.5 over the eastern U.S. at the daily and yearly levels in 2004. We then use statistical modeling to show that the patterns in monthly average AOD poorly reflect patterns in PM2.5 because of systematic, spatially-correlated error in AOD as a proxy for PM2.5 . Furthermore, when we include AOD as a predictor of monthly PM2.5 in a statistical prediction model, AOD provides little additional information to improve predictions of PM2.5 when included in a model that already accounts for land use, emission sources, meteorology and regional variability. These results suggest caution in using spatial variation in AOD to stand in for spatial variation in ground-level PM2.5 in epidemiological analyses and indicate that when PM2.5 monitoring is available, careful statistical modeling outperforms the use of AOD.

Spatio-temporal Associations Between GOES Aerosol Optical Depth Retrievals and Ground-Level PM2.5

We assess the strength of association between aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrievals from the GOES Aerosol/Smoke Product (GASP) and ground-level fine particulate matter (PM2.5) to assess AOD as a proxy for PM2.5 in the United States. GASP AOD is retrieved from a geostationary platform and therefore provides dense temporal coverage with half-hourly observations every day, in contrast to once per day snapshots from polar-orbiting satellites. However, GASP AOD is based on a less-sophisticated instrument and retrieval algorithm. We find that correlations between GASP AOD and PM2.5 over time at fixed locations are reasonably high, except in the winter and in the western U.S. Correlations over space at fixed times are lower. Simple averaging over time actually reduces correlations over space dramatically, but statistical calibration allows averaging over time that produces strong correlations. These results and the data density of GASP AOD highlight its potential to help improve exposure estimates for epidemiological analyses. On average 40% of days in a month have a GASP AOD retrieval compared to 14% for MODIS and 4% for MISR. Furthermore, GASP AOD has been retrieved since November 1994, providing the possibility of a long-term record that pre-dates the availability of most PM2.5 monitoring data and other satellite instruments.