3 resultados para Temporal and Spatial Variability

em Collection Of Biostatistics Research Archive


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We studied temporal and spatial patterns of soil nitrogen (N) dynamics from 1993 to 1995 in three watersheds of Fernow Experimental Forest, W.V.: WS7 (24-year-old, untreated); WS4 (mature, untreated); and WS3 (24-year-old, treated with (NH4)2SO since 1989 at the rate of 35 kg Nha–1year–1). Net nitrification was 141, 114, and115 kg Nha–1year–1, for WS3, WS4, and WS7, respectively, essentially 100% of net N mineralization for all watersheds. Temporal (seasonal) patterns of nitrification were significantly related to soil moisture and ambient temperaturein untreated watersheds only. Spatial patterns of soil water NO3–of WS4 suggest that microenvironmental variabilitylimits rates of N processing in some areas of this N-saturated watershed, in part by ericaceous species in the herbaceous layer. Spatial patterns of soil water NO3–in treated WS3 suggest that later stages of N saturation may result inhigher concentrations with less spatial variability. Spatial variability in soil N variables was lower in treated WS3 versus untreated watersheds. Nitrogen additions have altered the response of N-processing microbes to environmental factors, becoming less sensitive to seasonal changes in soil moisture and temperature. Biotic processes responsible forregulating N dynamics may be compromised in N-saturated forest ecosystems.

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Nitrogen (N) saturation is an environmental concern for forests in the eastern U.S. Although several watersheds of the Fernow Experimental Forest (FEF), West Virginia exhibit symptoms of Nsaturation, many watersheds display a high degree of spatial variability in soil N processing. This study examined the effects of temperature on net N mineralization and nitrification in N-saturatedsoils from FEF, and how these effects varied between high N-processing vs. low N-processingsoils collected from two watersheds, WS3 (fertilized with [NH4]2SO4) and WS4 (untreated control). Samples of forest floor material (O2 horizon) and mineral soil (to a 5-cm depth) were taken from three subplots within each of four plots that represented the extremes of highest and lowest ratesof net N mineralization and nitrification (hereafter, high N and low N, respectively) of untreated WS4 and N-treated WS3: control/low N, control/high N, N-treated/low N, N-treated/high N. Forest floor material was analyzed for carbon (C), lignin,and N. Subsamples of mineral soil were extractedimmediately with 1 N KCl and analyzed for NH4+and NO3– to determine preincubation levels. Extracts were also analyzed for Mg, Ca, Al, and pH. To test the hypothesis that the lack of net nitrification observed in field incubations on the untreated/low N plot was the result of absence ofnitrifier populations, we characterized the bacterial community involved in N cycling by amplification of amoA genes. Remaining soil was incubated for 28 d at three temperatures (10, 20, and30°C), followed by 1 N KCl extraction and analysis for NH4+ and NO3–. Net nitrification was essentially 100% of net N mineralization for all samples combined. Nitrification rates from lab incubation sat all temperatures supported earlier observations based on field incubations. At 30°C, rates from N- t reated/high N were three times those of N-treated/low N. Highest rates were found for untreated/high N (two times greater than those of N-treated/high N), whereas untreated/low N exhibited no net nitrification. However, soils exhibitingno net nitrification tested positive for presence of nitrifying bacteria, causing us to reject our initial hypothesis. We hypothesize that nitrifier populations in such soil are being inhibited by a combination of low Ca:Al ratios in mineral soil and allelopathic interactions with mycorrhizae of ericaceous species in the herbaceous layer.

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We propose a method for diagnosing confounding bias under a model which links a spatially and temporally varying exposure and health outcome. We decompose the association into orthogonal components, corresponding to distinct spatial and temporal scales of variation. If the model fully controls for confounding, the exposure effect estimates should be equal at the different temporal and spatial scales. We show that the overall exposure effect estimate is a weighted average of the scale-specific exposure effect estimates. We use this approach to estimate the association between monthly averages of fine particles (PM2.5) over the preceding 12 months and monthly mortality rates in 113 U.S. counties from 2000-2002. We decompose the association between PM2.5 and mortality into two components: 1) the association between “national trends” in PM2.5 and mortality; and 2) the association between “local trends,” defined as county-specificdeviations from national trends. This second component provides evidence as to whether counties having steeper declines in PM2.5 also have steeper declines in mortality relative to their national trends. We find that the exposure effect estimates are different at these two spatio-temporalscales, which raises concerns about confounding bias. We believe that the association between trends in PM2.5 and mortality at the national scale is more likely to be confounded than is the association between trends in PM2.5 and mortality at the local scale. If the association at the national scale is set aside, there is little evidence of an association between 12-month exposure to PM2.5 and mortality.