The Ecological Significance of the Herbaceous Layer in Temperate Forest Ecosystems

Despite a growing awareness that the herbaceous layer serves a special role in maintaining the structure and function of forests, this stratum remainsan underappreciated aspect of forest ecosystems. In this article I review and synthesize information concerning the herb layer’s structure,composition, and dynamics to emphasize its role as an integral component of forest ecosystems. Because species diversity is highest in the herb layeramong all forest strata, forest biodiversity is largely a function of the herb-layer community. Competitive interactions within the herb layer candetermine the initial success of plants occupying higher strata, including the regeneration of dominant overstory tree species. Furthermore, the herblayer and the overstory can become linked through parallel responses to similar environmental gradients. These relationships between strata varyboth spatially and temporally. Because the herb layer responds sensitively to disturbance across broad spatial and temporal scales, its dynamics canprovide important information regarding the site characteristics of forests, including patterns of past land-use practices. Thus, the herb layer has asignificance that belies its diminutive stature.

Uncertainty About the Incubation Period of AIDS and its Impact on Backcalculation

We analyze three sets of doubly-censored cohort data on incubation times, estimating incubation distributions using semi-parametric methods and assessing the comparability of the estimates. Weibull models appear to be inappropriate for at least one of the cohorts, and the estimates for the different cohorts are substantially different. We use these estimates as inputs for backcalculation, using a nonparametric method based on maximum penalized likelihood. The different incubations all produce fits to the reported AIDS counts that are as good as the fit from a nonstationary incubation distribution that models treatment effects, but the estimated infection curves are very different. We also develop a method for estimating nonstationarity as part of the backcalculation procedure and find that such estimates also depend very heavily on the assumed incubation distribution. We conclude that incubation distributions are so uncertain that meaningful error bounds are difficult to place on backcalculated estimates and that backcalculation may be too unreliable to be used without being supplemented by other sources of information in HIV prevalence and incidence.