The Importance of Scale for Spatial-confounding Bias and Precision of Spatial Regression Estimators

Increasingly, regression models are used when residuals are spatially correlated. Prominent examples include studies in environmental epidemiology to understand the chronic health effects of pollutants. I consider the effects of residual spatial structure on the bias and precision of regression coefficients, developing a simple framework in which to understand the key issues and derive informative analytic results. When the spatial residual is induced by an unmeasured confounder, regression models with spatial random effects and closely-related models such as kriging and penalized splines are biased, even when the residual variance components are known. Analytic and simulation results show how the bias depends on the spatial scales of the covariate and the residual; bias is reduced only when there is variation in the covariate at a scale smaller than the scale of the unmeasured confounding. I also discuss how the scales of the residual and the covariate affect efficiency and uncertainty estimation when the residuals can be considered independent of the covariate. In an application on the association between black carbon particulate matter air pollution and birth weight, controlling for large-scale spatial variation appears to reduce bias from unmeasured confounders, while increasing uncertainty in the estimated pollution effect.

A CASE STUDY IN PHARMACOLOGIC IMAGING USING PRINCIPAL CURVES IN SINGLE PHOTON EMISSION COMPUTED TOMOGRAPHY

In this manuscript we are concerned with functional imaging of the colon to assess the kinetics of a microbicide lubricant. The overarching goal is to understand the distribution of the lubricant in the colon. Such information is crucial for understanding the potential impact of the microbicide on HIV viral transmission. The experiment was conducted by imaging a radiolabeled lubricant distributed in the subject’s colon. The tracer imaging was conducted via single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT), a non-invasive, in-vivo functional imaging technique. We develop a novel principal curve algorithm to construct a three dimensional curve through the colon images. The developed algorithm is tested and debugged on several difficult two dimensional images of familiar curves where the original principal curve algorithm does not apply. The final curve fit to the colon data is compared with experimental sigmoidoscope collection.