Limitations of the Odds Ratio in Gauging the Performance of a Diagnostic or Prognostic Marker

A marker that is strongly associated with outcome (or disease) is often assumed to be effective for classifying individuals according to their current or future outcome. However, for this to be true, the associated odds ratio must be of a magnitude rarely seen in epidemiological studies. An illustration of the relationship between odds ratios and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves shows, for example, that a marker with an odds ratio as high as 3 is in fact a very poor classification tool. If a marker identifies 10 percent of controls as positive (false positives) and has an odds ratio of 3, then it will only correctly identify 25 percent of cases as positive (true positives). Moreover, the authors illustrate that a single measure of association such as an odds ratio does not meaningfully describe a marker’s ability to classify subjects. Appropriate statistical methods for assessing and reporting the classification power of a marker are described. The serious pitfalls of using more traditional methods based on parameters in logistic regression models are illustrated.

A Method for Visualizing Multivariate Time Series Data

Visualization and exploratory analysis is an important part of any data analysis and is made more challenging when the data are voluminous and high-dimensional. One such example is environmental monitoring data, which are often collected over time and at multiple locations, resulting in a geographically indexed multivariate time series. Financial data, although not necessarily containing a geographic component, present another source of high-volume multivariate time series data. We present the mvtsplot function which provides a method for visualizing multivariate time series data. We outline the basic design concepts and provide some examples of its usage by applying it to a database of ambient air pollution measurements in the United States and to a hypothetical portfolio of stocks.

Self-Reported Memory Symptoms with Coronary Artery Disease: A Prospective of CABG Patients and Nonsurgical Controls

Background. Subjective memory complaints are common after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), but previous studies have concluded that such symptoms are more closely associated with depressed mood than objective cognitive dysfunction. We compared the incidence of self-reported memory symptoms at 3 and 12 months after CABG with that of a control group of patients with comparable risk factors for coronary artery disease but without surgery. Methods. Patients undergoing CABG (n = 140) and a demographically similar nonsurgical control group with coronary artery disease (n = 92) were followed prospectively at 3 and 12 months. At each follow-up time, participants were asked about changes since the previous evaluation in areas of memory, calculations, reading, and personality. A Functional Status Questionnaire (FSQ) and self-report measure of symptoms of depression (CES-D) were also completed. Results. The frequency of self-reported changes in memory, personality, and reading at 3 months was significantly higher among CABG patients than among nonsurgical controls. By contrast, there were no differences in the frequency of self-reported symptoms relating to calculations or overall rating of functional status. After adjusting for a measure of depression (CES-D rating score), the risk for self-reported memory changes remained nearly 5 times higher among the CABG patients than control subjects. The relative risk of developing new self-reported memory symptoms between 3 and 12 months was 2.5 times higher among CABG patients than among nonsurgical controls (CI 1.24 – 5.02), and the overall prevalence of memory symptoms at 12 months was also higher among CABG patients (39%) than controls (14%). Conclusions. The frequency of self-reported memory symptoms 3 and 12 months after baseline is significantly higher among CABG patients than control patients with comparable risk factors for coronary and cerebrovascular disease. These differences could not be accounted for by symptoms of depression. The self-reported cognitive symptoms appear to be relatively specific for memory, and may reflect aspects of memory functioning that are not captured by traditional measures of new verbal learning and memory. The etiology of these self-reported memory symptoms remains unclear, but our findings as well as those of others, may implicate factors other than cardiopulmonary bypass itself.