Effects of in situ freezing on soil net nitrogen mineralization and net nitrification in fertilized grassland of northern China

Effects of soil freezing on nitrogen (N) mineralization have been the subject of increased attention in the ecological literature, though fewer studies have examined N mineralization responses to successive mild freezing, severe freezing and cyclic freeze–thaw events. Even less is known about relationships of responses to soil N status. This study measured soil N mineralization and nitrification in the field along an experimental N gradient in a grassland of northern China during the dormant season (October 2005–April 2006), a period in which freezing naturally occurs. Net N mineralization exhibited great temporal variability, with nitrification being the predominant N transformation process. Soil microbial biomass C and N and extractable NH4 + pools declined by 40, 52, and 56%, respectively, in April 2006, compared with their initial concentrations in October 2005; soil NO3– pools increased by 84%. Temporal patterns of N mineralization were correlated with soil microbial biomass C and N. N mineralization and nitrification increased linearly with added N. Microbial biomass C in treated soils increased by 10% relative to controls, whereas microbial N declined by 9%. Results further suggest that freezing events greatly alter soil N dynamics in the dormant season at this site, with considerable available N accumulating during this period.

Effects of experimental nitrogen additions on plant diversity in an old-growth tropical forest

Response of plant biodiversity to increased availability of nitrogen (N) has been investigated in temperate and boreal forests, which are typically N-limited, but little is known in tropical forests. We examined the effects of artificial N additions on plant diversity (species richness, density and cover) of the understory layer in an N saturated old-growth tropical forest in southern China to test the following hypothesis: N additions decrease plant diversity in N saturated tropical forests primarily from N-mediated changes in soil properties. Experimental additions of N were administered at the following levels from July 2003 to July 2008: no addition (Control); 50 kg N ha−1 yr−1 (Low-N); 100 kg N ha−1 yr−1 (Medium-N), and 150 kg N ha−1 yr−1 (High-N). Results showed that no understory species exhibited positive growth response to any level of N addition during the study period. Although low-to-medium levels of N addition (≤100 kg N ha−1 yr−1) generally did not alter plant diversity through time, high levels of N addition significantly reduced species diversity. This decrease was most closely related to declines within tree seedling and fern functional groups, as well as to significant increases in soil acidity and Al mobility, and decreases in Ca availability and fine-root biomass. This mechanism for loss of biodiversity provides sharp contrast to competition-based mechanisms suggested in studies of understory communities in other forests. Our results suggest that high-N additions can decrease plant diversity in tropical forests, but that this response may vary with rate of N addition.

Uncertainty About the Incubation Period of AIDS and its Impact on Backcalculation

We analyze three sets of doubly-censored cohort data on incubation times, estimating incubation distributions using semi-parametric methods and assessing the comparability of the estimates. Weibull models appear to be inappropriate for at least one of the cohorts, and the estimates for the different cohorts are substantially different. We use these estimates as inputs for backcalculation, using a nonparametric method based on maximum penalized likelihood. The different incubations all produce fits to the reported AIDS counts that are as good as the fit from a nonstationary incubation distribution that models treatment effects, but the estimated infection curves are very different. We also develop a method for estimating nonstationarity as part of the backcalculation procedure and find that such estimates also depend very heavily on the assumed incubation distribution. We conclude that incubation distributions are so uncertain that meaningful error bounds are difficult to place on backcalculated estimates and that backcalculation may be too unreliable to be used without being supplemented by other sources of information in HIV prevalence and incidence.

Reduced Bayesian Hierarchical Models: Estimating Health Effects of Simultaneous Exposure to Multiple Pollutants

Quantifying the health effects associated with simultaneous exposure to many air pollutants is now a research priority of the US EPA. Bayesian hierarchical models (BHM) have been extensively used in multisite time series studies of air pollution and health to estimate health effects of a single pollutant adjusted for potential confounding of other pollutants and other time-varying factors. However, when the scientific goal is to estimate the impacts of many pollutants jointly, a straightforward application of BHM is challenged by the need to specify a random-effect distribution on a high-dimensional vector of nuisance parameters, which often do not have an easy interpretation. In this paper we introduce a new BHM formulation, which we call "reduced BHM", aimed at analyzing clustered data sets in the presence of a large number of random effects that are not of primary scientific interest. At the first stage of the reduced BHM, we calculate the integrated likelihood of the parameter of interest (e.g. excess number of deaths attributed to simultaneous exposure to high levels of many pollutants). At the second stage, we specify a flexible random-effect distribution directly on the parameter of interest. The reduced BHM overcomes many of the challenges in the specification and implementation of full BHM in the context of a large number of nuisance parameters. In simulation studies we show that the reduced BHM performs comparably to the full BHM in many scenarios, and even performs better in some cases. Methods are applied to estimate location-specific and overall relative risks of cardiovascular hospital admissions associated with simultaneous exposure to elevated levels of particulate matter and ozone in 51 US counties during the period 1999-2005.